Longwood Lancers vs Houston Cougars Odds
| Longwood Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 130 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 130 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
Only two top seeds have ever lost to their 16-seed opponent in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Any attempt to try to find the third team to suffer that fate requires looking back at the first two instances.
Those two 1-seeds both played slowly, with 2018's Virginia team and last season's Purdue both ranking outside the top 300 in tempo. That opens the door to a higher variance outcome.
The 16-seeds to pull off the upset both ranked in the top 50 nationally in forcing turnovers, emphasizing pressure defense.
Houston ranks 348th in tempo. Longwood ranks 45th in defensive turnover rate.
Can we talk ourselves into lightning striking a third time? Let's dive into the NCAA Tournament odds for Longwood vs. Houston and make a pick and prediction in our March Madness betting preview for Friday, March 22.
Longwood Lancers
Longwood's defensive pressure is the best thing it has to offer.
Opponents in the Big South shot the best percentage both inside and outside the arc against this defense. That level of ineptitude on the defensive end was the primary — but not the sole — reason the Lancers went just 6-10 in Big South play in the regular season.
Longwood's offense was also flawed. The Lancers' offensive turnover rate nearly canceled out the extra possessions they gained by forcing turnovers in the first place.
Longwood instead relies on the offensive glass, where it ranks in the top 15 nationally. The highlight for Longwood offensively is a group of slashers who can get to their spots in the lane, drawing fouls at a high rate.
It's hard to consider how Longwood's defensive pressure or success on the glass would stack up against high-level competition considering the Lancers didn't face a power conference team all season.
Longwood's best opponent this season was St. Bonaventure, which the Lancers led in the final four minutes before losing by just four. However, that was all the way back on Nov. 6.
Houston Cougars
Houston's blowout loss in the Big 12 Tournament title game was one of the most shocking outcomes of Championship Week.
No, it wasn't overly surprising that Houston lost to Iowa State — it did so in earlier in the season — but the margin of victory was eye-opening. That kind of thing simply doesn't happen to Kelvin's Sampson's Cougars.
Houston lost only three times before that game, with the worst of those coming on the road at the hallowed halls of Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas made every shot it looked at that day, and Houston still battled to keep the game respectable with the Cougars winning the second half.
It's so hard to beat this Houston team at all, let alone blow it out. That's because the Cougars smother opponents.
Houston's defense makes it impossible to get into a rhythm. The Cougars rank in the top three nationally in forcing turnovers, blocking shots and creating steals.
Teams shoot impossibly low percentages against Houston because the Cougars force opposing offenses to work for every inch. It feels like an accomplishment to get a shot off against Houston — much less a good look that goes in.
On the other end, Houston's veteran guards can use their defensive energy to create offense in transition but are even more comfortable slowing the ball down to try to win in the half-court.
And when Houston misses a shot, the Cougars grab almost 37% of their own offensive rebounds.
Between turnovers and blocked shots on one end and Houston's putbacks and second chances, the Cougars are regularly going to get up a significantly higher number of shots than their opponent.
Longwood vs Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
Does this game match the recipe for another top seed to fall? If you squint really, really hard, there's something there. Houston's slow pace adds some variance. Longwood can steal some extra possessions with turnovers and putbacks.
Perhaps the biggest chance comes via the zebras. Houston's blitz-everything defense does draw a fair amount of whistles, and it ranks 308th in free-throw rate. Longwood has taken the 23rd-most free-throw attempts per game this season.
If the Lancers luck into a tight whistle, maybe there's an opening.
But with Houston steaming mad after the Big 12 title game loss, I don't see any other reason to suggest the Cougars will give Longwood some life, especially since the Lancers struggle to shoot the 3 and don't do so often enough to shake things up.
Houston's turnover-hungry defense facing a turnover-prone offense should make this ugly.
Plus, the Cougars haven't played with their food this season. Houston played 11 games against teams outside KenPom’s top 100 this season. Those 11 opponents averaged 46.6 points per game.
My favorite bet on the board is the Longwood team total under 52.5. It's a low number, but it's there for a reason.
Pick: Longwood Team Total Under 52.5
