It's been a pretty chalky NCAA Tournament thus far, with the favorites finishing the Round of 32 an impressive 15-1 straight up. The public has also fared well, going 38-13 ATS. That’s the best start in 15 years.
We should be in store for an extremely fun Sweet 16, as all the No. 1 and 2 seeds remain alive. NC State’s infamous five wins in five days has carried over to Big Dance — it remains the only double-digit seed to make it out of the first weekend.
Here are two spots that I have circled on my Sweet 16 betting card, as well as a player prop.
It isn’t a stretch to say that Alabama is fortunate to still be in the NCAA Tournament.
3-point variance is the name of the game for the Tide. In its two wins to date, Alabama has held its opponents to just 12-of-53 (22.6%) from the perimeter.
This is a run-and-gun offense that can put up 100 points in the blink of an eye, but there’s also a ton of underlying issues that have yet to be taken advantage of.
Most of that stems from the lesser competition it's faced. Alabama took down No. 13 Charleston and No. 12 Grand Canyon — and may have been fortunate to do so. The Lopes missed 14 free throws and struggled to keep the Tide off the offensive glass.
It’s easy to fall in love with this Alabama offense — nearly half of its attempts come from 3 and the pace makes for good basketball. This is the quintessential "sexy" team and basically every NBA mantra: all offense, no defense.
No literally, like zero defense. In the last month, Alabama — a top-25 team all season long — ranks No. 54 in efficiency, per Bart Torvik. While the offense has been fine, defensively, it ranks outside the top 150.
Nate Oats might as well put up a "come and take what you want" sign in the paint. Alabama plays soft inside, has plenty of issues with foul trouble (327th in FTA/FGA) and ranks outside the top 200 in 2-point percentage.
Against a disciplined and smart offense, Alabama can be bullied. The defense doesn’t force turnovers (277th) and allows second-chance opportunities at over a 30% rate (244th). Sunday night’s win over Grand Canyon marked Alabama’s first victory against a team ranked inside KenPom’s top 85.
Next up on deck is North Carolina and to be frank, I’m not sure how the Tide will be able to limit this offense. Armando Bacot’s presence around the rim and high foul rate is staggering. Harrison Ingram has been the X-factor UNC needed and is an elite rebounder.
The Tar Heels rank No. 1 in the ACC in offensive rebounding (33%) during conference play.
Let’s look back at some of the previous games out of big men vs. Alabama. Johni Broome went for 24+ in both games. Zach Edey hung 35. Ryan Kalkbrenner (19 on 9-of-11 shooting), PJ Hall (21) and even Makhi Mitchell (18 on 7-of-9 shooting) put together efficient nights.
If Mitchell is cooking you — it happened two weeks ago — then there’s a serious issue with your frontcourt.
North Carolina is going to sustain longer possessions and get the more quality looks. The Heels rank sixth in defensive rebounding, and there’ll be few easy 2s for Alabama.
Bacot and RJ Davis have made an NCAA Tournament run before, and I trust this Tar Heels team that's never wavered from college basketball’s elite this season. In general, I look to fade teams that have weak defenses and underlying issues because those are normally the squads that lose early in March.
Even if Alabama hits 40-50% of its 3s, I still think this game goes down to the wire. And if the 3s aren’t falling, well, at least you can go to bed early.
Pick: North Carolina -3.5 (Play to -5)
Perhaps there’s nothing more courageous than looking at this game and deciding to back Rick Barnes in the NCAA Tournament. Does it make me nervous? Of course. But so do heights, and I used to live on the 14th floor of an apartment building. Humble brag, I know.
Anyways, it felt like Tennessee was on the cusp of another first-weekend exit on Saturday. The Vols mustered just 3-of-25 from 3, and Dalton Knecht had one of his least efficient games this season.
It was a perfect storm for an upset, but Tennessee survived and advanced.
That leads us to Creighton and the Kalk drop. The Jays allow less than 28% of total shots to be from distance, running opponents off the 3-point line and into the mid-range. Blocking off the rim is the 7-foot-1 Kalkbrenner, who, aside from N’Faly Dante’s dominance, shuts down opposing bigs.
There’s an easy way to beat this Kalk drop if I’m Tennessee: do the best Herb Brooks "again" impression and spam Knecht in the mid-range. Every. Single. Play.
It’s like rolling out of the pocket with Michael Vick in Madden ‘04. Or spamming the dunk button with Gerald Green from the free-throw line in 2K14. Creighton is going to struggle to stop Knecht unless it blitzes with Kalkbrenner or double teams him.
This is a great spot to buy Tennessee under a possession. It’s no secret what Creighton wants to do — use the pick-and-roll and let it fly from 3. But the Vols are a top-20 pick-and-roll defense, per ShotQuality, and allow under 15% of total 3s taken to be left unguarded.
Jonas Aidoo has the size and physicality to match up with Kalkbrenner around the rim. The Vols' defense ranks third in Adjusted Efficiency and cleans up on the glass. From top to bottom, UT has a strong matchup on the defensive end for each of Creighton’s weapons.
While it was Saint Peter’s and Texas, the Tennessee defense has never looked better entering this Sweet 16 matchup. The Vols allowed a combined 107 points in their two games, showing the ability to win ugly, even when no shots fall.
I think this is the perfect spot for offensive regression for Tennessee. I’m also looking to back Knecht’s points over (19.5, FanDuel), as I'm expecting another 15-to-20 shot game from the superstar. He should have no issues hitting elbow jumpers against the Kalk drop.
So, hold your nose and back Barnes, who's 4-16 ATS in the tournament.
