We're all about the 3s tonight. After all, what's March Madness without a few triples?
Our writers see value on two player props for Thursday's late games, both focused on 3-pointers: one for Saint Mary's Tommy Kuhse and another for San Francisco Jamaree Bouyea.
Below, we've used the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to compare our NCAAB projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Tommy Kuhse Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+130)
By Doug Ziefel
This prop is too juicy to pass up. We're getting Tommy Kuhse, who is shooting 47% from behind the arc this season against an Indiana defense that’s average at defending 3s.
Kuhse hit this over in two straight games during the WCC Tournament, and this opening-round matchup with Indiana presents plenty of opportunities for him to add to his streak.
When you look at these two teams, the matchup that everyone will point to is Trayce Jackson-Davis against Matthias Tass. Tass is one of the few big men who can match up with Davis and potentially give him issues. However, when the Hoosiers are forced to help, Kuhse will be lurking along the perimeter.
Our Action Labs projection has Kuhse projected at 1.8 threes for this contest, which is a 10% edge at plus money.
Pick: Tommy Kuhse Over 1.5 3-Pointers
Jamaree Bouyea Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-140)
So, Yauhen Massalski is officially out.
Todd Golden just announced that San Francisco big man Yauhen Massalski will not play tomorrow after reinjuring his knee in practice on Monday.
Massalski was a first-team all-WCC selection this year. Averaged 13.5 points, 9.4 boards and 2.2 blocks per game. Major loss.
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) March 16, 2022
He did play in the WCC Tournament game against BYU but was out for the game against Gonzaga. And the Dons’ highest-usage and best interior presence is out against for the first-round game.
Expect Bouyea’s usage to go up. In the last three games, Bouyea has attempted 19 total 3s (6.3 per game). Without Massalski against Gonzaga, he attempted seven.
Bouyea made exactly two of those attempts, good for a 10.5% rate. For a 36% 3-point shooter, he’s not going to keep missing at this rate for long.
Enter Murray State, which is top-90 nationally in 3-point rate allowed. The Racers are good at defending those 3s, but Bouyea should still get plenty of opportunities.
Without Massalski, look for Bouyea to shoulder more of the playmaking and scoring. He’s been shooting a ton of 3s in response and will shoot plenty more against a team like Murray State. And with the right level of positive regression, a couple should go in.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Bouyea for 2.1 3s tonight, giving us a slight 3% edge on the current line.
Pick: Jamaree Bouyea Over 1.5 3-Pointers
