Welcome to the Sweet 16.
With eight games spanning two days, the total number of games has dwindled since last weekend. Luckily, there are still a number of player props available to bet across the board.
For Thursday's games, we're focused on three players: Arkansas' JD Notae, Michigan's Hunter Dickinson and Duke's Trevor Keels.
Below, we'll use the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to compare our NCAAB projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
JD Notae Under 18.5 Points (-105)
By Doug Ziefel
This line is a bit too high for my liking here. When you look at Arkansas, you know that its leading man is JD Notae, and he’s a big reason why the Hogs are in the Sweet 16.
However, when diving into the numbers, he hasn't been on his A-game so far in the tournament.
He may be averaging 17.5 points per game, but 13 of his 35 total points have come at the stripe. Notae has not shot the ball all that well. He has been shooting 29.5% from the field in the last two games, which is a steady drop off from his season average of 40%.
Those kinds of numbers don't bode well against a Gonzaga defense that will throw a lot of size and length at him at all times.
The Zags are No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage allowed. The defense inside the arc is key against Notae, as that’s where the majority of his shots come from.
If Gonzaga wins this game like it should, expect Notae to be very quiet.
Hunter Dickinson Over 18.5 Points (-130)
Michigan will need Hunter Dickinson to have a big game if it wants to have a chance against Villanova. The 7-foot center is poised to do just that, facing off against a Villanova team that ranks outside the top 100 in average height.
Villanova hasn’t faced many big men quite like Dickinson this season. The Big East centers that are closest to him have fared well against the Wildcats’ interior defense recently.
Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner scored 19 of Creighton’s 48 points while hitting 8-of-11 from the field in the Big East Championship. Connecticut’s Adama Sanogo scored 15 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in the Big East Tournament semifinals.
Neither of those two players are at the same offensive caliber as Dickinson, who puts up 19 points per game. Dickinson has averaged 23 points per game over his last five matchups and gone over this total four times.
Villanova’s defense thrives at defending the perimeter but hasn’t seen the same success inside the arc. The Wildcats rank 133rd in 2-point defense, allowing opponents to hit 49%.
Jay Wright has been reluctant to double-team the post in recent games and will throw 6-foot-8 Eric Dixon at the Michigan center. Dickinson should have his way against the smaller defender and comfortably exceed the 20-point mark.
Trevor Keels Under 3.5 Rebounds (-105)
This line feels out of whack.
Keels has gone under this line in seven of his last eight games. Now, he’s facing a TTU no-middle scheme that will look to crash the glass. Texas Tech finished second in the Big 12 this season in DRB% — and that was against some of the toughest rebounding teams in the nation.
Plus, I don’t think the Raider backcourt of 6-foot-5 Adonis Arms and 6-foot-6 Davion Warren will have trouble boxing out the 6-foot-4, 220-pound freshman.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool has Keels projected for 2.6 rebounds today, providing us with a 10% edge over the current line.
I’d play this down to 3 at +100 or better.
