Sweet 16 action continues tonight with a heavy emphasis on the SEC. Florida and Alabama advanced last night and may be joined in the Elite Eight by a few league mates.
Ole Miss is the lowest seed playing tonight, and it will have a hard time winning the rebounding battle against Michigan State. I'm expecting Coen Carr to take advantage of that.
One SEC team will be advancing when Kentucky and Tennessee get together. Based on recent meetings, that team may be Kentucky. That may not mean a lot of playmaking from Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler.
Meanwhile, the highest total of the night comes in Atlanta, where Michigan will be taking on Auburn. I'm expecting freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford to contribute to the over.
Read on for NCAA Tournament player props for Friday, March 28th.
NCAA Tournament Player Props — 3/27
- Coen Carr Over 4.5 Rebounds (-105, Fanatics)
- Zakai Zeigler Under 7.5 Assists (-140, Fanatics)
- Tahaad Pettiford Over 12.5 Points (-105, Fanatics)
Michigan State Player Prop: Coen Carr Over 4.5 Rebounds
7:09 p.m., CBS | vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss has struggled when dealing with physical frontcourts.
In losses to Florida, Auburn (twice), Texas A&M, Mississippi State (twice), and Missouri, it has lost the rebounding battle by 10 or more.
The Rebels rank 314th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 226th in defensive rebounding rate.
They will be at a disadvantage on the glass once again as Michigan State ranks eighth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and eighth in offensive rebounding percentage.
Michigan State doesn't have a Johni Broome type of player from whom you can regularly expect a double-double — instead, the Spartans rebound by committee.
However, Coen Carr is the player I expect to lead the committee on Friday.
The sophomore forward has recorded at least four rebounds in five of his last six games, clearing this line in four. That correlates to his uptick in minutes, as he has also played at least 20 minutes in five of his last six games. Carr has pulled down five rebounds in six of his last 10 games when playing 20 minutes.
Often one of the best athletes whenever he takes the floor, I like Carr to sky for at least five rebounds tonight.
My Pick: Coen Carr Over 4.5 Rebounds (-105, Fanatics)
Tennessee Player Prop: Zakai Zeigler Under 7.5 Assists
7:39 p.m., TBS | vs. Kentucky
Zakai Zeigler is already Tennessee's all-time leader in assists. In his final collegiate season, Zeigler is averaging a career-high 7.4 assists per game.
However, seven or eight assists are not numbers Zeigler has hit regularly against Kentucky.
In nine career games against Kentucky, Zeigler has seven assists or less seven times. He has had six assists or fewer in six of those games, including the first two meetings this season. Kentucky has held the Volunteers to 68.5 points per game in those two meetings.
This season, Kentucky has done a number on Tennessee's leading scorer, Chaz Lanier. Lanier has scored 15 and 10 points in the two meetings this season while shooting 8-for-27 from the field. He is averaging 18.1 points per game this season and is entering this game on a heater with 20 points in four of his last six games, including 49 in his first two NCAA Tournament games.
That is why I prefer to fade Zeigler tonight. He has reached eight assists in just four of his last 10 games. Considering his history against Kentucky, I don't anticipate him getting there again.
My Pick: Zakai Zeigler Under 7.5 Assists (-140, Fanatics)
Auburn Player Prop: Tahaad Pettiford Over 12.5 Points
9:39 p.m., CBS | vs. Michigan
Speaking of Broome, he is one of six seniors in Auburn's seven-man rotation. That experience has helped Auburn earn the top overall seed.
However, if Auburn is cutting down the nets in a few weeks, the lone freshman of the group will have to do with that as well.
Tahaad Pettiford enters tonight's game having exceeded this line in five of his last seven games. In that span, the five-star freshman is averaging 14 points per game. That includes 21 points against Kentucky and 23 points in Auburn's second-round victory over Creighton.
Pettiford faces a Michigan defense that ranks 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the Wolverines are susceptible to elite guards at times this season.
In the last month, they have given up at least 14 points to Kasparas Jakucionis and Kylan Boswell of Illinois, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel (twice) of Maryland, Jase Richardson of Michigan State, John Blackwell of Wisconsin, Tyler McGhie of UC San Diego, and Wade Taylor of Texas A&M.
Michigan is also prone to turnovers offensively while not forcing that many on the defensive end. Auburn is a team that selectively runs, but that may happen more often tonight if it forces more live ball turnovers.
That may help an explosive player like Pettiford get to 13 points tonight.
My Pick: Tahaad Pettiford Over 12.5 Points (-105, Fanatics)
