The first round of the NCAA Tournament is finally upon us.
The opening round is like a sports betting holiday, as bettors can capitalize on many edges during March Madness. One area where every prospective bettor should be looking is the player prop market.
The market will be as deep as ever during the tournament, but I've taken the weight off of you by finding three of the best props to take.
So, let's dive in and enjoy the madness.
NCAA Tournament Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of Action Network contributor Doug Ziefel's top player prop picks from Thursday's slate of NCAA Tournament games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:10 p.m. | |
| 4 p.m. | |
| 9:55 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Morehead State vs. Illinois
Riley Minix
Over 7.5 Rebounds
First, we head to Omaha, where the Morehead State Eagles will face the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Eagles have gotten some love in the betting market, and big man Riley Minix is a big reason why.
Minix can do it all for the Eagles, and one area where he will make a big impact this afternoon is on the glass. Minix will be the best rebounder on the floor as the only man who ranks inside the top 300 in offensive and defensive rebounding rates nationally.
We've also gotten a deflated line with a considerable step up in competition. However, Illinois is not as formidable a matchup as the number implies.
For Minix, this number is too low. He has gone over this number in 71% of games this season, including nine of his last 10. That overall hit rate gives us implied odds of -245.
Minix has averaged 9.8 rebounds on the season, and that has gone up to 10.9 over his last 10 games. Tthis is has value up to 8.5.
Pick: Riley Minix Over 7.5 Rebounds (-136)
Oregon vs. South Carolina
Ta'Lon Cooper
Under 4.5 Assists
Next, we move onto an intriguing matchup between the red-hot Oregon Ducks and the South Carolina Gamecocks.
While the market may be undecided about who will win this matchup, there's one thing we know: It will be played at a slow tempo.
There's no one that the tempo will impact more than South Carolina shooting guard Ta'Lon Cooper. Cooper may be one of the Gamecocks' best offensive players, but he has a limited role when you look at how little he touches the ball.
That makes his assists line stand out. Cooper averaged 4.2 assists per game this season but went under this line 61% of the time. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -156, which is solid line value.
Pick: Ta'Lon Cooper Under 4.5 Assists (-140)
Samford vs. Kansas
Hunter Dickinson
Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Kansas big man Hunter Dickinson will return from a dislocated shoulder, and the Jayhawks need him with Kevin McCullar missing the NCAA Tournament.
However, we should have significant reservations about Dickinson returning to form here.
Below, you can listen to David Chao — also known as Pro Football Doc — talk about just how much the dislocated shoulder will impact Dickinson's performance:
.@GoodmanHoops joined the @ProFootballDoc podcast to discuss the key injuries affecting #MarchMadness2024 including Kansas C Hunter Dickinson's dislocated shoulder.
Watch📺https://t.co/QNC3vzEUdG
Listen🎧https://t.co/KZkaa39tv6pic.twitter.com/7NBIrwZVi1— Sports Injury Central (@SICscore) March 19, 2024
So, with Dickinson expected to be hampered by this injury, we should fade him in every way we can. The best option is to take the under on his combo prop, as we'll likely see a significant drop-off in each category.
In addition, this line is a number that Dickinson did not prove he could exceed even when healthy. He went under this number in 61% of games this season, which gives us significant value.
This can be played down to 31.5.
Pick: Hunter Dickinson Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (Play to 31.5)
