Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player props as the opening slate of First Four games tip off for March Madness. Koerner — whose brackets for the last two NCAA Tournaments finished in the 99th and 95th percentiles on ESPN — has a 75-69-2 (51%) all-time record on NCAAB bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
6:40 p.m. ET
Under 136.5
Both of these teams rank outside of the top 250 in offensive efficiency, but are inside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. We are projecting Texas Southern to turn the ball over a ton tonight (17.9 projected turnovers) and this should a lower-scoring, sloppy game.
We're projecting this closer to 131.5 and I would bet it to 136.
Pick: Under 136.5 at BetMGM
9:10 p.m. ET
Race Thompson Over 6.5 Rebounds
Wyoming struggles in offensive rebounding, ranking 263rd at KenPom. That should lead to a few more defensive rebounds for Indiana tonight. Thompson leads the team with a 21.8% DR%, meaning he should specifically benefit from this matchup.
We're projecting Thompson closer to 8.4 rebounds, with a 73% chance of him going over 6.5. I'd play this to -165.
Pick: Over 6.5 Rebounds at FanDuel
Hunter Maldonado Under 6.5 Assists
Maldonado is a fantasy point guard and his 6.3 assists per game rank sixth in the country. However, Wyoming has averaged 73 points a game on the season, but has a team total of 64.5 tonight as the Cowboys face Indiana's 21st-ranked defense.
There should be fewer opportunities for Maldonado to be credited with an assist tonight and we are projecting this closer to 5.4, with a 70% chance of going under 6.5. I'd play this to -150.
Pick: Under 6.5 Assists at DraftKings
