Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 132.5 -105o / -115u | +270 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 132.5 -105o / -115u | -335 |
Texas Tech is the best defensive team in the country, and the Red Raiders go up against a Notre Dame squad that barely snuck into the tournament and needs to hit 3s to stay alive.
Unfortunately for the Fighting Irish, the Red Raiders know how to defend both inside and out and force turnovers while doing it.
Notre Dame usually plays a clean game, but it has not seen a defense nearly as tenacious as the one it will meet on Sunday.
The Red Raiders should cover this number and could easily make it double digits by the end.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is a solid 3-point shooting team. Per KenPom, 37.2% of its total point distribution on the year has been from deep, and it shoots 38% on those shots.
However, the Red Raiders held teams to only 31.4% from outside the arc this season. Since Notre Dame rarely goes inside and only gives the ball to Paul Atkinson Jr. on pick-and-rolls, it is going to be hard for it to find points. The Irish will need an alternative if they are not sinking 3s.
That said, Texas Tech will leave some opponents open. The Red Raiders rank 123rd in Open 3 Rate (Shot Quality), which is shockingly not great considering their prowess in other areas defensively. If ND gets these open 3s and takes advantage, it could cut into Texas Tech’s expected lead.
Still, ND is brutal on the offensive glass. Per ShotQuality, the Irish rank 342nd out of 358 NCAA teams in offensive rebounding. This is not going to fare well for them. Texas Tech can rebound on both ends of the floor and will steal away any second-chance points for the Irish.
Notre Dame may be able to haul in some boards on defense, but this should be an edge for the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech plays an opposite style of basketball from the Irish, as it likes to get the ball into the paint. Per KenPom, only 25.4% of the Red Raiders' points this season have come from outside the arc, and they will not deviate from this plan.
The Fighting Irish have allowed opponents to shoot 50% on 2s, so Texas Tech will exploit this consistently. Bryson Williams and Kevin Obanor are very efficient bigs, so expect them to have successful outcomes on the offensive side.
In addition, ShotQuality has the Red Raiders ranked 21st in Finishing at the Rim on offense and eighth on defense. This should indicate more than enough opportunities, even for the slashers from the guard position, like Davion Warren and Terrence Shannon Jr.
The crux of the Red Raiders this season has been turnovers. They give away the ball over 20.2% of the time, which ranks 290th in college hoops (KenPom).
They need to limit these instances to do well on Sunday.
To their benefit, Notre Dame does not turn over other teams often. Since Texas Tech has a more physical style of play, it should be in good shape to not make mistakes.
Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick
It's hard to envision Notre Dame's softer style of play overcoming the juggernaut Texas Tech defense. The Red Raiders are far too physical, especially given the teams in the ACC the Irish are used to.
Yes, the Irish beat Rutgers and Alabama, but those two teams have clear weaknesses. Unless the Irish suddenly start turning Texas Tech over often on Sunday — which they have not done at all this season — they will be out-battled on the defensive end.
Texas Tech will also eliminate 3s on occasion, which is a gigantic portion of the Notre Dame offense. I do not like this matchup for the Irish at all, so take the points with Texas Tech at -7.5, and play it to -8.5.
Do not be shocked if the Red Raiders win by a landslide.
