It's been a very chalky tournament so far, with only four conferences (fewest ever) represented in the Sweet 16. Those conferences are led by the SEC (seven teams) followed by the Big 12 (four), Big Ten (four) and ACC (only one for the first time since the tournament expansion).
As a result of having 15 single-digit seeds (plus Arkansas), we're set up for some popcorn-worthy matchups the rest of the way.
In regards to the No. 1 seeds, Auburn finally looked fully engaged for the first time in a couple of weeks in the second half against Creighton.
Were the Tigers simply coasting or are there some underlying issues? When locked in, they're as good as anybody in the country.
With Cooper Flagg back from injury, Duke looks like the most dominant team in the field, as it possesses no real weaknesses. The defense isn't as versatile without Maliq Brown, but that won't matter if Tyrese Proctor continues to shoot the lights out from deep.
Houston continues to chug along (it's maybe even a bit under the radar for a top seed), with only one loss since the start of December (which came in overtime).
Kelvin Sampson's defense leads the way, but he also has a backcourt full of bucket getters and a frontcourt that can play volleyball on the offensive glass when those shots aren't falling.
Given the Cougars' style, they might find themselves in a few close games down the stretch, which could leave them a bit vulnerable.
Meanwhile, Florida has been everyones new favorite darling for the past month, with an offense that can come at you in waves from so many different directions. The defense has shown some cracks of late, but the Gators' ceiling can't be questioned.
We haven't seen all four No. 1 seeds make it to the Elite Eight since 2016, when we had one of the best national title games of all-time between Villanova and UNC.
Will the tournament continue its chalky ways, or will a few of the one seeds run into trouble on Thursday and Friday?
For what it's worth, No. 1 seeds have gone just 3-6 SU in the Sweet 16 over the past three tournaments, with Houston suffering a pair of losses in this round as a No. 1 seed in each of the past two seasons.
If one of the favorites isn't going to cut down the nets, who else could emerge as a potential national champion?
Let's take a quick look at each non-No. 1 seed in the lens of what needs to go right for them to get to San Antonio.
For what it's worth, if I had to re-seed the Sweet 16 right now — assuming every team is at full strength — it would look something like this:
- Duke
- Houston
- Auburn
- Florida
- Texas Tech
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- Maryland
- BYU
- Arizona
- Michigan State
- Kentucky
- Purdue
- Michigan
- Arkansas
- Ole Miss
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3-Seed Texas Tech Red Raiders
Over the first two rounds, the Red Raiders demonstrated that they can win games in a variety of different ways.
Against UNC Wilmington, they bombed away from 3, with Kerwin Walton exploding from beyond the arc with eight triples.
Then, against the undersized Drake frontcourt, they pounded it inside to JT Toppin and Darrion Williams.
Texas Tech is extremely well-coached and more than comfortable operating in the half court. The Red Raiders' offense can score with anybody in the nation.
However, in order to reach their full potential, I believe they need to be at full strength, so all eyes are on Chance McMillian. If he can return to the lineup, the offense has another gear due to his shooting prowess (43.4% from 3) and ability to create more spacing.
How good is the offense with McMillian? Take a look at where Tech's best lineup ranks in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency, per Evan Miya:
- Texas Tech: 147.5 (Christian Anderson, Elijah Hawkins, Toppin, Williams, McMillian)
- Florida: 138.3 (Walter Clayton Jr., Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Alijah Martin, Will Richard)
- Tennessee: 138.0 (Jordan Gainey, Chaz Lanier, Zakai Zeigler, Igor Milicic Jr., Felix Okpara)
Tech has beaten two mid-majors so far despite shooting just 25% from 3. That number will likely need to increase in order to compensate for a defense that doesn't rank as nationally elite.
McMillian would certainly help in that department.
To me, at full strength, this is a top-five team.
2-Seed Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols have become a known commodity under Rick Barnes. You know what you're going to get with this super experienced starting five, especially with senior point guard Zeigler running the show.
It all starts on the defensive end, where they'll relentlessly guard teams for 40 minutes.
They force countless contested 3-point attempts at the end of the shot clock (98th percentile last four seconds of shot clock frequency, per Synergy); hence, why Tennessee ranks third nationally in 3-point defense (28.3%) despite super high volume (338th in 3-point attempt rate allowed).
The offense has almost become underrated at this point, although that's the unit that will likely cost the Vols if they do get knocked off.
They're still a bit vulnerable to some scoring droughts, which can be problematic for a team that prefers to play grind-it-out half-court-style games (346th in adjusted tempo).
When Lanier has his shot going (10-of-18 from 3 so far in this tournament), the Vols' half-court offense is certainly tough to stop, especially since they're excellent on the offensive glass (28th).
However, the key to unlocking their full offensive potential likely comes down to what Tennessee can get from its role players. If it can get consistent scoring from Gainey and its big men, it's capable of cutting down the nets.
If not, the Vols probably don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with a team like Duke in a potential Final Four matchup.
But first, Tennessee will need to make an outside shot against a Kentucky team that can limit the Vols on the offensive glass. Kentucky swept the regular season series by daring Tennessee to make an outside shot, which it simply couldn't do.
In those two losses, the Vols shot just 14-of-63 (22.2%), while the Cats connected on 24-of-48 (50%). It's hard to win when you're at such a disadvantage from beyond the arc.
When it comes to taking out the elite top seeds, Tennessee might have the most appealing profile.
2-Seed Alabama Crimson Tide
I still don't think this Alabama team has a national-title-caliber defense or shot volume profile. Just take a look at some of these defensive ranks since Feb. 1, per Bart Torvik:
- Effective Field Goal Percentage: 102nd
- 2-Point Percentage: 132nd
- Turnover Rate: 353rd
- Defensive Rebounding: 150th
- Foul Rate: 273rd
Those would all concern me if I'm a Tide fan moving forward against teams that will be more on their level from a talent and athleticism standpoint, especially compared to Robert Morris and Saint Mary's.
With that said, the Tide can simply outscore anybody on any given night in a shootout with their super fast-paced (No. 1 in adjusted tempo) rim-and-3 offense. That's especially the case if those treys are falling on high volume, and the good news for Alabama is they have since Feb. 1 (37.9%).
A healthy Grant Nelson also helps matters for an offense that's as good as any in the country when the shots are falling.
At the end of the day, no top seed really wants to see Mark Sears and the Tide because of their potential firepower.
The formula for the Tide is simple: get red-hot offensively for the next four games to cover up some of the defensive and shot volume issues.
That all starts with Thursday's game against another high-powered offense in BYU. This contest looks like it could close with the highest total of any tournament game since 1995, so get ready for some fireworks.
4-Seed Maryland Terrapins
Derik Queen saved the day and the season for the Terps with an incredible game-winner against Colorado State on Sunday night.
The Terps have to feel relieved after escaping the first weekend, but they'll have to be much sharper against the Gators if they want to win their first Sweet 16 game since 2002.
When talking Maryland basketball this season, it all starts with the "Crab Five" — one of the best starting rotations in all of college basketball.
The potential problem for the Terps is they're overly reliant on those five starters (319th in bench minutes). They really can't afford off nights from a few starters (especially against Florida) and truly can't afford getting into any sort of foul trouble (or god forbid an injury).
They generally do a good job of avoiding fouls (26th), but that could be a different story against Florida's interior size. Kevin Willard can help in that department by switching up defenses (do we see a bit more zone? Less press?), but it's definitely a concern for Maryland in every game from here on out.
However, if the Terps can stay out of foul trouble and remain on the floor together for a majority of the action, they can play with anybody in the country.
They have a dynamic offense that can score efficiently in a multitude of ways. They have a tremendous frontcourt duo — Queen and Julian Reese — in addition to a dangerous trio on the perimeter — Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel — that's combined to shoot over 40% from 3 on nearly 600 attempts this season.
Willard will have to pull the right strings on defense, and the Maryland bigs will have to concede a few easy buckets at times to avoid bad fouls, but the "Crab Five" can certainly make a deep run from here on out.
They'll need to bring their A-game against a Florida team that should come out much more focused after this past weekend.
I personally can't wait to watch that matchup after both teams had to feel like they escaped their second-round opponents.
6-Seed BYU Cougars
I don't think BYU is getting enough respect as a real threat among the 16 teams remaining in the field.
This is a different team than the one we saw earlier in the season, in part due to the emergence of Mawot Mag.
To wit, since Feb. 1, the well-balanced Cougars have gone 11-1 (with the lone loss coming to Houston) and are ranked fourth overall, per Bart Torvik, trailing only Duke, Houston and Florida over that six-week stretch.
The defense still has obvious holes due to some lack of athleticism at certain positions, which they try to cover up with a more passive, packed-in defense (with some zone mixed in).
They won't turn opponents over and that scheme certainly encourages teams to bomb away from distance (340th in 3-point attempt rate).
That's always a troubling proposition in a one-and-done setting, especially against a team like Alabama that will happily oblige.
Similar to the Tide, the defense will likely end up costing the Cougars against superior opponents, but they still have an offense that nobody should feel comfortable facing right now.
They run beautiful offense and have the weapons to score with any team, but they become exponentially more dangerous if their opponents are cold from the outside.
Even if the Tide are scorching hot from 3, BYU could still keep up — although that would be much more difficult against Duke, and we've already seen how poorly the Cougars match up with Houston in two previous meetings this year (lost by a combined 51 points).
4-Seed Arizona Wildcats
There's no use in even pondering Arizona's potential path. It all starts with its next opponent: Duke, which is the biggest favorite of the Sweet 16.
If the Wildcats can pull off the unexpected upset, then the sky is the limit — although a potential date with Houston or Tennessee in the Final Four would provide similar problems to the ones the Blue Devils pose.
The Wildcats really want to get out in transition, where they can be lethal and score at the rim. Well, both are nearly impossible against Duke, which has an elite transition (second-percentile frequency, 91st efficiency) and rim defense (fourth-percentile frequency, 93rd efficiency, per Synergy).
That's troubling for the Wildcats, who will likely need to hit jumpers in the half court to stay within reaching distance of the Blue Devils.
A few weeks ago, I would've said that this was a sure death sentence. However, the Wildcats have been shooting the lights out of late. Over their past seven games, they've made 59-of-136 (43.4%), which has increased their season-long average from 31.2% to 33.4%.
One of the primary drivers of that turnaround has been the enigmatic Caleb Love, who's drained 21-of-43 (48.8%) over that stretch after shooting just barely above 30% over his first 29 games this season.
Love was incredible against Oregon, finishing with 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists. Can Arizona continue to get the dynamic Love in the half court for four more games, starting with an opponent he's certainly very familiar with?
They will, in all likelihood, need the good version of Love for 35-plus minutes to have a realistic shot, but he's certainly proven it on this stage before.
With that said, he could also just as easily shoot them out of the tournament.
I can't wait to watch either way.
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2-Seed Michigan State Spartans
This is your prototypical Tom Izzo team. The Spartans are tough and as deep as any team in the country. You better bury this team when you get a chance because nobody thrives in second halves more than Michigan State, which seemingly wears opponents down over the final 20 minutes.
The half-court offense can be a struggle at times, but the emergence of Jase Richardson late in the season as a go-to-scorer has raised the Spartans' ceiling on that end of the floor.
I think it's a positive they were able to survive against a solid New Mexico team despite Richardson shooting 0-of-9 over the first 38 minutes (before making some key plays in the final few minutes, to his credit).
However, they'll need him to bounce back in these later rounds as the competition gets tougher.
The floor for Michigan State is extremely high due to its elite defense (fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom) and relentless rebounding. However, its lack of perimeter firepower gives the Spartans a lower ceiling than some of the other top seeds.
In order for Michigan State to cut down the nets, it'll likely need Richardson to be special at some point, which he's fully capable of being on any given night.
However, he would also need to receive some outside shooting help from the likes of Tre Holloman, Jaden Akins and Jeremy Fears Jr..
You will have to kill this team with fire and match their second-half energy, but the inconsistent half-court offense might eventually end up costing it as it becomes tougher to rely on transition offense as the tournament progresses.
That's especially true if someone finally makes some 3s against the Spartans. At this point in the season, it's safe to assume their 3-point defense is just super elite, but there's likely still a bit of looming negative regression in that area.
And just like Ole Miss fans, Spartan fans should obviously be rooting hard against Auburn on Friday night in order to get an Elite Eight matchup with a Michigan squad they swept in the regular season by a combined 30 points.
I'm sure they'll leave out the "wearing maize and blue" part, though.
3-Seed Kentucky Wildcats
Mark Pope deserves a ton of credit for breaking through to the second weekend in his first season in Lexington, especially after navigating a few key injuries throughout the year.
Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season and is a different team on both ends of the floor with Lamont Butler back from injury. The steady point guard not only provides much-needed elite on-ball defense, but he steadies the ship on the offensive end of the floor.
Plus, due to those aforementioned injuries, a few others in the lineup (like a Collin Chandler) can be relied on to provide some productive minutes.
While Kentucky has an elite offense, the defense (particularly against the pick-and-roll) still has holes, and the shot volume profile is worrisome.
So, how can Kentucky overcome some of those warts? With the ultimate equalizer: 3-point math.
I already mentioned how Kentucky swept Tennessee in the regular season due to 3-point variance. Well, it also saw its first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament shoot a combined 17-of-64 (26.6%) from 3 while the Cats poured in 18-of-47 (38.3%), which is slightly above their season-long rate.
With that said, both Illinois and Troy rank outside the top-300 in 3-point shooting. It'll become harder to rely on teams missing 3s (which also can trigger opportunities for Kentucky) moving forward.
Fortunately for Big Blue Nation, Tennessee isn't an elite 3-point shooting team (although it's certainly very capable in that department), but some of the Wildcats' other projected opponents on this half of the draw can light it up from distance.
In order to stay alive, Kentucky is going to need to get and stay hot from 3.
The key player to watch for me is Koby Brea, who won't provide much on the defensive end, but is more than capable of going off on any given night from the perimeter.
4-Seed Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers have a great coach in Matt Painter and an elite 1-2 inside-out punch with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn.
That will always give them a puncher's chance, especially if they're getting help from the likes of Fletcher Loyer and the other role players, which has been an issue at times.
Purdue's offense is elite and the ball movement was pristine in its recent win over McNeese State. However, the defense remains a major concern thanks to no real rim protection (351st nationally in 2-point percentage defense).
Painter has made some nice adjustments lately to cover up some of those interior deficiencies by primarily packing everything in and daring teams to beat them over the top.
While that certainly worked against a pair of mid-majors (McNeese and High Point) over the first weekend, that's a dangerous game to play as the level of competition rises rapidly.
If someone gets red hot from the outside, the house of cards will likely all collapse for a team that will also be at an overall athletic disadvantage against most of the squads it faces the rest of the way.
With a defense that ranks outside the top 100 in overall efficiency since the beginning of February, it's hard to see the Boilermakers cutting down the nets unless it gets extreme 3-point help from its opponents in some half-court grinders and its ancillary players provide adequate help for Smith and TKR. Those two will be the overwhelming focus of every refined game plan moving forward.
5-Seed Michigan Wolverines
Many wrote off Michigan for dead a few weeks ago, but the Wolverines proved all of the doubters (including myself) wrong with a pair of impressive wins against UC San Diego and Texas A&M.
Yes, they've been the close-game kings all season, but at some point, you have to give credit to Dusty May's bunch for its execution in crunch time.
That was more than evident over the final 10 minutes against the Aggies, as Tre Donaldson continues to come up with huge shots in the clutch.
I do think the Wolverines have benefited from getting out of conference play, as their unique scheme that features a pair of 7-footers in Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf makes them tough to prep for.
The turnovers are still a major concern, although they did a tremendous job in that department against the A&M heavy pressure defense. Turnovers aren't as big of a concern against Auburn (although they certainly don't want to throw away too many possessions).
So, how can Michigan pull off the upset and get to San Antonio? By getting help from the role players, as it did over the first weekend.
Roddy Gayle Jr. and L.J. Cason were absolutely massive in the comeback effort against A&M. If they're suddenly viable options offensively, that opens up everything else for a unit that's been starving for perimeter help for two months.
Between Feb. 1 and the start of the tournament, Michigan shot just 27.5% (351st) from 3 after shooting 37% over its first 20 games. Well, the Wolverines are now one of the 16 teams left standing, even after seeing no improvement in that area through two tournament games (13-of-52, 25%).
If some of the role players can hit some 3s and Michigan doesn't throw it away too frequently, it could become a thorn in the side of Auburn and future opponents the rest of the way.
And if the games are close at the end, nobody is likely more comfortable in that setting than this Wolverines bunch.
10-Seed Arkansas Razorbacks
The Hogs have had the most impressive path to the Sweet 16, knocking off two coaching legends in Rick Pitino and Bill Self without arguably their most important player in Adou Thiero.
There's a decent chance Thiero returns this weekend. That certainly helps, but how will all of the moving parts continue to fit together?
Theiro and Boogie Fland are probably Arkansas' two best players. Getting them back in the mix after seeing increased production during their absences from guys like Trevon Brazile certainly makes Arkansas a much more dangerous team than the No. 10 seed next to its name.
Arkansas didn't miss a beat with the return of Fland, who I thought has provided solid minutes, even if he still hasn't found his outside shot (1-of-9 from 3).
If John Calipari can continue to push all of the right buttons with his rotation, this team can certainly continue its magical ride after starting off 0-5 in the SEC.
Arkansas is undoubtedly loaded with talent and length that will make life miserable for opposing offenses, although its own half-court offense is a bit wonky at times due to a lack of consistent outside shooting.
However, if the Razorbacks can find ways to get out in transition — where they're elite (won't be easy against Texas Tech) — and turn games into chaotic brawls, they can lean on their extreme athleticism to pull off a few more upsets.
Look out if this team actually has a stretch where the 3s start falling.
6-Seed Ole Miss Rebels
Coming into the NCAA Tournament, Ole Miss profiled as one of the most likely teams to benefit from some positive 3-point shooting variance.
From Feb. 1 through the end of conference tournaments, Ole Miss only shot 32.4% from 3 while its opponents made 38.0% (314th).
Well, it cashed in on some of that looming two-way regression against North Carolina and Iowa State, as those two teams combine to shoot 13-of-46 (28.3%) while the Rebels caught fire from deep with a 19-of-39 (48.7%) output.
Can they stay that hot against a Michigan State team that's held opponents to the nation's lowest 3-point percentage at 27.8%? The Rebels will certainly need to make some outside shots, since they'll likely get beat up on the glass on both ends.
While Sparty ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, the Rebels rank 314th and 226th, respectively.
That's certainly troubling on a neutral court.
Ole Miss does have a few things working for it in this particular matchup. The Rebs have an elite transition defense (19th percentile frequency, 93rd percentile efficiency), which is paramount against Tom Izzo's bunch.
Their defensive scheme also forces a high rate of 3-point attempts (317th) and isolation sets (99th percentile frequency). Michigan State excels in neither department.
Malik Dia is the ultimate wild card for the Rebs and a potential matchup problem for many teams, including Sparty.
If Chris Beard's bunch can battle on the boards and stay hot from the outside — while Sean Pedulla continues his outstanding play — the Rebels can certainly take out Michigan State.
However, a potential date with Auburn in the Elite Eight would be extremely problematic. I don't think they match up well at all with the Tigers, who swept all three meetings this season by a combined 45 points.
If I'm an Ole Miss fan in Oxford, I'm wearing maize and blue on Friday night.
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