The NCAA Tournament is here, and we're set to break down each single region, discussing everything from the favorite to come out to potential Cinderellas and must-watch first-round matchups.
Perhaps one of the weakest regions in the bracket comes out West, as it's filled with top seeds that all have underlying issues. North Carolina was named the No. 1 seed, but the Tar Heels aren't even the favorite to cut down the nets. That belongs to No. 2-seeded Arizona.
Even more interesting is Alabama’s fall from grace. In less than a month, the Tide went from the No. 1 seed in the SEC to losing four of their last six entering the Big Dance. Alabama is a four seed and ranks No. 61 in the last month in terms of efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Let’s take a look at my NCAA Tournament West Region preview.
Favorite of Region: Arizona (+230)
Despite being the No. 2 seed in the region, Arizona is the favorite to come out on top. The Wildcats took home the Pac-12 regular season title but were unable to win their third straight conference tournament under Tommy Lloyd.
Last year, Princeton shocked the world and upset Arizona in a similar spot. Lloyd has since retooled the team and added key veterans like Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson.
Arizona ranks inside the top 15 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. For reference, every year since KenPom started tracking data in 2002, the champion has finished inside the top 25 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, save for Connecticut in 2014.
Lloyd’s run-and-gun offense has dominated competition. This is a downhill and physically draining team, one that ranks 16th in offensive rebounding and has the ability to stretch the floor (23rd in 3-point percentage).
Love is the primary shot taker, and the Arizona offense often goes as he does. We’ve seen Love be able to take over games — think back to the Tar Heels’ near-championship run in 2022 — as well as shoot his team out of games. In Arizona’s last two losses, Love had eight combined points on 3-of-21 shooting.
Arizona is experienced and tall. Oumar Ballo ranks inside the top 20 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, while Johnson provides much-needed veteran stability. Johnson and Love have the experience of making deep NCAA Tournament runs.
Defensively, there are some concerns for Arizona. The Cats take away second-chance opportunities and don’t foul, but they’re outside the top 65 in 2-point percentage and near-150th defending the perimeter.
ShotQuality has Arizona as 138th when it comes to defending catch-and-shoot 3s and outside the top 200 on off-the-dribble 3s. In particular, this team struggles in transition (320th) and at the rim (267th).
Ultimate Winner of Region: UNC (+350)
I'm shocked that North Carolina is not the favorite of this region, though it makes sense considering it has a potentially difficult 8-9 matchup on deck.
However, I believe the Tar Heels are the best team in this region, and they're built for March. It also happens to be a region featuring top seeds with flaws.
Alabama couldn't be trending worse — outside the top 60 in the last month, per Bart Torvik — while Baylor has dealt with plenty of turnover issues and an over-reliance on its guards to make big shots. Also, Arizona's defensive issues loom large.
North Carolina is one of the most interesting teams, partly because of its defense. The Tar Heels rank sixth in Defensive Efficiency, but they've been a bit fortunate with their 3-point defense. They rank inside the top 50, despite allowing over a quarter of 3s to be unguarded (305th).
The best North Carolina sports betting apps are now live! Learn more and register for the best bonus offers.
Aside from their occasional lulls on the defensive end and a lack of turnovers forced, the interior defense has been elite. Armando Bacot returned and remains one of the best ACC big men, while Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has been a significant portal add.
Ingram ranks third on UNC in both scoring (12.1) and assists (2.2), all while grabbing nine rebounds per game. He's the team’s X-factor thanks to his ability to stretch the floor, clean the glass and use his physicality to dominate smaller forwards.
Of course, this team isn’t possible without superstar RJ Davis. All it took was Love leaving for Davis to take off. He takes over 30% of UNC's shots while on the floor and is shooting over 40% from 3. He's a do-it-all playmaker and doesn't turn the ball over — a huge plus for an extremely talented UNC offense that also ranks sixth in experience.
This team has everything it takes to be a NCAA title contender. They’re inside the top 25 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, have a veteran cast that doesn’t turn the ball over and feature a microwave scorer in Davis, who can completely take over a game.
His surrounding cast is elite in different ways, too, making this an extremely well-balanced roster.
This is the team I trust most in this region. Davis and Bacot have been there, done that. And in a region with plenty of fraudulent teams, UNC couldn't have asked for a better draw.
Potential Bracket Busting Team: Grand Canyon
Don't be surprised if you blink and you’re watching Grand Canyon give North Carolina fights in the Sweet 16. This team is underrated, and after rolling through the WAC, it's my favorite potential Cinderella story of the season.
This is a physical and downhill attacking team led by Tyon Grant-Foster. He takes over 30% of the shots while on the floor and draws nearly seven fouls per 40 minutes. The 6-foot-7 talent is GCU’s do-it-all superstar who leads the team in scoring (19.8) and also adds 3.1 stocks per game.
This Lopes are battle tested and are well coached by Bryce Drew. In non-conference play, GCU took down San Francisco and followed it up a few weeks later with a win over San Diego State.
The key for Grand Canyon is turning games into a slugfest. The Lopes are top-five in the country in FTA/FGA and top-30 in offensive rebounding. They have the length to match up with power-conference opponents and the experience (56th in D-I) to not look like a deer in headlights come tip-off.
Defensively, Grand Canyon forces turnovers at an elite rate and sits 10th in 2-point percentage. ShotQuality ranks it 33rd out of the half-court and top-10 in finishes at the rim — which is where most teams try to attack (44% of attempts).
The Antelopes look to run you off the 3-point line and use length to force highly-contested shots and turnovers.
Their draw is also a favorable one. Grand Canyon gets a Saint Mary’s team that's battling frontcourt health issues with Joshua Jefferson out for the season. Harry Wessels has missed the last five games, while Mason Forbes left the WCC Championship after a hard fall (his status has yet to be determined).
For a team that doesn’t shy away from contact, the Gaels’ lack of frontcourt depth has the chance to be exposed here. If GCU is able to pull off the 12-5 upset, the winner of Alabama and Charleston awaits.
I don’t have to go on about why Alabama is overrated. I’ve discussed at length on our shows just how bad the Tide is trending. This is a team that's a paper tiger defensively and gives up way too many second-chance opportunities.
Drew has himself a talented Grand Canyon roster, one that could become a Cinderella in all our hearts come the second weekend.
Best Matchup of First Round: Alabama vs. Charleston
Perhaps the matchup I’m most excited for is the one with a total that's crept over the 170 mark and sets up to be the highest-scoring first-round matchup.
Despite the spread nearing double-digits, this is the "popcorn" game I’ve circled. Alabama and Charleston are two of the fastest teams in college basketball, both playing little-to-no defense and shooting nearly half of all field goals from 3.
Over the last month, Alabama ranks as the 61st team, per Bart Torvik. The reason why? The Tide sit 214th in Defensive Efficiency. Both of these teams sit outside the top 140 in effective field goal percentage and struggle to guard the interior (180th or worse).
But offensively, we should see few turnovers, plenty of second-chance opportunities and a ton of 3s.
I think this line is still a bit high given Alabama’s struggles. If there’s one thing Charleston does well on the defensive end, it’s limit second-chance opportunities and not foul.
The same can’t be said for Alabama, which ranks outside the top 200 in both.
The Cougars have a tall and deep roster, one that has the ability to spread the floor five wide.
Keep an eye out for Charleston’s Reyne Smith. Charleston’s leading scorer is a microwave and shoots 40% from 3 at a high volume. He's made the second-most 3s in college basketball and has six-plus in three of Charleston's last four.
This is going to be a fun game, one where this 173-point total might still be too low. Don’t be surprised to see Charleston give Alabama a run for its money, either.
