March is upon us, which means that teams are pleading their NCAA Tournament case down the stretch.
For a program like Vandy, it's simply looking to crash the Big Dance for the first time since 2017. Meanwhile, others, like Iowa State, are trying to improve their seeding to set the table for a deep run later this month.
So, here's NCAAB betting picks and my expert analysis for Tuesday, March 4.
(Here's a parlay if you so choose to take that route.)
BYU vs. Iowa State
Iowa State, finally at full strength, made a statement on Saturday against Arizona.
The Cyclones' 17-point shellacking of the Wildcats put the country on notice. Iowa State’s Big Three — Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones and Milan Momcilovic — shot 7-for-13 from downtown, and its defense played as well as it has all season long.
Aside from a handful of second-chance buckets and 10 fast-break points, Tommy Lloyd’s team was at a loss. In the half-court, this Iowa State team grinds team to dust on the defensive end, and the Wildcats finished 19-for-57 from the field.
I’m banking on the Hilton magic continuing as Iowa State attempts to climb back into the two-seed conversation with Selection Sunday less than two weeks away.
Yes, BYU is a well-oiled machine offensive, but its overall splits are shocking. At home this season, the Cougars have the fifth-rated offense, per Bart Torvik, complete with an effective field goal percentage just a hair under 60%.
But when they leave Provo, the bottom falls out. That offense takes a step back across the board, sinking into the low teens.
It’s the defense that falls off a cliff, though. Teams are getting whatever they want against BYU, evidenced by its effective field goal percentage defense, which ranks 339th.
I’ll side with a resurgent Iowa State team playing with a full deck against this leaky BYU defense.
Pick: Iowa State -7.5 (Play to -8)
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt
A meeting between the 10th and 11th teams in a major conference conference doesn't usually scream March Madness, but in the case of the Hogs and Dores, this game is incredibly important.
The SEC will likely send 12 to 13 teams to the NCAA Tournament, which would break the previous record set by the Big East in 2011 when 11 of its teams made the field.
According to Bracket Matrix, which aggregates hundred of mock tournament brackets, Vanderbilt is currently sitting on the nine-seed line, while Arkansas is precariously perched in the play-in round between 11 seeds.
A win here all but assures Vandy of an at-large bid come Selection Sunday.
Arkansas, fresh off a humiliating loss to South Carolina, has far more work to do. John Calipari’s team needs to beat Vandy and Mississippi State at home on Saturday to find itself on the right side of the bubble.
Bart Torvik currently gives the Razorbacks a 43% chance of making the Field of 68.
Even before Arkansas' 19-point loss to the Gamecocks on Saturday, I was already skeptical of its staying power vis-a-vis an at-large bid. The Hogs don’t make many triples, they struggle mightily on the glass and they’re far too loose with the basketball for my liking.
All of these things bit against South Carolina, and I foresee more of the same against Vandy.
The Commodores are surging, having reeled off three straight wins over ranked opponents. Their guard play will win the day in the Music City on Tuesday night. In the last five games, Vanderbilt has featured four different leading scorers, and its now cracked the KenPom top-20 on the offensive end.
The Dores will knock down enough shots and dominate Arkansas on the glass.
I would be comfortable laying up to six in this pivotal SEC matchup.
Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5
