On Thursday, we saw significant movement among teams on the bubble.
After Ohio State went down on Wednesday, Oregon knocked off Indiana to kick off the day in the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State and Indiana are now listed among the first four teams out and are out of opportunities to improve their resume before Selection Sunday.
Two beneficiaries are North Carolina and Texas, who secured huge victories themselves and are now among the Last Four In. North Carolina rallied to beat Wake Forest and Texas held off Texas A&M in double overtime.
North Carolina and Texas can cement their spots in the NCAA Tournaments with victories over Duke and Tennessee, respectively, on Friday.
Meanwhile, in the Mountain West, Boise State and Colorado State are both among the First Four Out.
Boise State knocked off San Diego State to advance to the semifinals, while Colorado State defeated Nevada to do the same. Pending Friday's results, they may be battling each other for the automatic bid on Saturday.
Bubble Teams to Back on Friday
Texas (+9.5) at 3:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 11
If you backed Texas on Thursday, it was certainly a sweat. The Longhorns were up six at halftime and up nine with eight minutes left in the second half. They couldn't hold on in regulation and needed double overtime to secure the victory, cashing both +6.5 and +225 on the moneyline.
I backed the Longhorns against Texas A&M because the Aggies aren't a great shooting team, making it difficult to cover that many points.
I have a similar feeling with Tennessee here. Compared to previous years, Tennessee is better offensively with Zakai Zeigler running the show and Chaz Lanier, who is among the best shooters in the country.
However, it still can get bog down offensively at times and it plays at a slow pace, ranking 346th in adjusted tempo.
Just six of Tennessee's SEC victories have been by double digits. It beat Texas by just four in Austin in January and on Friday, we have seven more points to work with.
Tennessee also defeated Texas 62-58 in the SEC Tournament last year, giving Texas consecutive covers against Rick Barnes' bunch. Tennessee is just 11-7 in the SEC Tournament under Barnes.
Texas may be playing its third game in three days, but it has momentum and is fighting to secure its spot in the field. I'll be backing the Longhorns to stay within 10 points.
UNC (+8.5) at 7 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 12
Stop me if you've heard this before: North Carolina is 1-11 Quad 1 games. Two of those losses came to arch-rival Duke by double digits.
KenPom projects a 14-point loss on Friday, but that likely isn't taking into account the injuries that the Blue Devils suffered on Thursday.
Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg played just 15 minutes after suffering an ankle injury against Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Maliq Brown re-dislocated his shoulder and was limited to six minutes himself. Flagg and Brown are both considered long shots to play on Friday.
Now, with UNC being undersized and guard-heavy this season, Duke's length gave it fits in the first two meetings. That will still be a factor on Friday, but Duke will be missing two 6-foot-9 forwards. They're also the Blue Devils' two top defenders, and Flagg is the team's most important player.
When Flagg got into foul trouble last week in Chapel Hill, UNC was able to cut into a 15-point deficit, which led to a 22-point turnaround.
This time, Duke won't have Flagg to use against a desperate UNC team. That may be enough to help the Tar Heels keep this spread within nine points.
Bubble Team to Fade on Friday
Boise State (+1) at 9:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: First Four Out
Boise State didn't have much momentum after losing three of four to drop to 13-7.
Since, the Broncos have won 10 of their last 12 games.
Thursday's 10-point victory over San Diego State sets up a third matchup with New Mexico and an opportunity for another Quad 1 victory.
After Boise State won six of seven meetings, New Mexico has won two of the last three meetings. This season, they've split the matchups, with the home team winning both meetings.
It sets up another of contrasting styles. Boise State has the more efficient offense (44th in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in the Mountain West), but it ranks 273rd in adjusted tempo.
New Mexico is 80th in adjusted offensive efficiency in Division I and fourth in conference play. However, the Lobos average six more points per game than Boise State because they rank fourth in the nation in adjusted tempo.
When you combine that with a top-20 defense in the country, it's not hard to see why they're tough to beat.
New Mexico has averaged 81 points per game in the two meetings against Boise State — essentially matching its season average — and it shot 50% from the field in both meetings.
The Lobos are the better shooting team and have the stronger defensive unit in this game.
One more shot and one more stop may be the difference in giving the Lobos a tight victory.
