On Wednesday, North Carolina and Arkansas picked up key victories in their quest to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
That might not be the case today. I faded Texas yesterday, but it might be catching too many points against a hated rival today. We also get the Big Ten and Big East involved with Indiana taking on Oregon and Xavier taking on Marquette.
Read on for today's NCAAB bubble watch.
Bubble Teams to Back on Thursday
Wake Forest (+5.5) at 2:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: Next Four Out
Against Notre Dame, North Carolina opened as a 7.50point favorite and closed as a 10.5-point favorite. As expected, the Tar Heels were able to cruise a comfortable 76-56 victory.
They also received some help in the Big Ten when Iowa knocked off Ohio State, which entered Wednesday as the last team in.
Thursday's game will go a long way towards determining the NCAA Tournament fates for both North Carolina and Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons won the first meeting 67-66 in Winston-Salem. They had an up-and-down finish to the regular season, splitting their final 12 games. However, they closed the regular season on a high note, with a 69-43 victory over Georgia Tech.
Like Texas A&M, Wake Forest isn't a great shooting team, but it doesn't give up many 3s either. Wake Forest is 25th in 3-point percentage defense and 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
North Carolina has been on fire from deep of late, but Wake Forest may be the team to limit the Heels' 3-point prowess. The Tar Heels shot 8-for-32 from behind the arc in the first meeting.
Expect the Demon Deacons' defense to help them hang around in this one.
Indiana (+1.5) at 12 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 11
Nine days ago, Oregon defeated Indiana 73-64 in Eugene.
This time around, Indiana will have a major thing going in its favor: It'll have a decided home-court advantage, with the game being played in Indianapolis. The Hoosiers went 14-4 at home this season and 5-8 in true road and neutral court games.
There's a good case to be made that the first matchup was decided at the free throw line. Oregon went 19-for-21 at the foul line while Indiana was just 3-for-7.
Oregon is the better free throw shooting team this season, but it had 16 more makes and 14 more free throw attempts in a home game that it won by nine. If the free throw disparity is a little more even or favors Indiana, it'll be able to make up Oregon's advantage from the first meeting.
Indiana will also get the benefit of facing a West Coast team for a noon ET tip.
This matchup actually just played out in the NCAAW Big Ten Tournament. The Lady Ducks won the first matchup by seven points also in Eugene. In the second round, they matched up for a noon tip and the Lady Hoosiers won by 16 points.
I don't foresee a 16-point victory for Indiana in this one, but if Oregon is sleepwalking, the Hoosiers may pull off the short upset.
Texas (+6.5) at 3:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: First Four Out
Texas picked up a huge 79-72 victory on Wednesday over Vanderbilt to extend its season. It may have also put the Commodores in peril depending on how the rest of this week shakes out.
On Thursday, it gets a huge opportunity to pick up another resume-building win, possibly at the expense of a rival as well.
Texas has split the two meetings with Texas A&M, but the Aggies controlled both games. Texas A&M won the first meeting by 20 in College Station and then built a 21-point first half lead in Austin.
However, the Longhorns rallied for a 70-69 victory on a Tramon Mark shot with three seconds to go.
For this matchup, I believe the Aggies are getting too many points with their issues shooting from the field. They're 327th in 3-point shooting percentage (30.7%) and 314th in effective field goal percentage (47.6%).
Texas A&M does lead the nation offensive rebounding rate (42.2%), but it turns the ball over on over 18% of its offensive possessions.
Additionally, Texas A&M can stand to improve its seed currently (3), but it's safely in the field. Texas is fighting to earn a bid and that desperation may keep this game close.
Bubble Teams to Fade on Thursday
Xavier (+2) at 2:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 12
Xavier dug itself into a hole this season with a 13-9 start. However, it closed the regular season on fire as it won eight of its final nine games, including its last seven games.
An eighth straight win would be massive, as it would have the opportunity to pick up a Quad 1 victory over No. 25 Marquette.
This season, the two teams have exchanged two-point victories on the other's home court. As a result, there's a two-point spread for Thursday's game.
However, Marquette has won seven of the last 10 meetings against Xavier and has covered six of them. That includes a 14-point victory in the Big East Tournament two years ago.
If Xavier is going to claim the season series, it'll likely be because of an advantage from the 3-point line. Xavier is the 12th-best 3-point shooting team in Division I while Marquette is 244th in the category.
However, Marquette is the better offense overall and the better team on both ends on the floor. It ranks 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Marquette's biggest advantage may come in the turnover department, as it ranks eighth in turnover percentage offensively and 12th in the category defensively. Xavier ranks outside the top 100 in turnover percentage on both ends of the floor and committed 25 turnovers in the first two meetings.
After transitioning to point guard full-time, Kam Jones has averaged 18.9 points, 6.1 assists and 1.8 turnovers per game. He's scored 20 points in three of his last four games against Xavier.
Look for him to lead the way again.
Arkansas (+3.5) at 1 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 10
After a dominant first half, Arkansas was able to hold on for a 72-68 victory over South Carolina. The win was pivotal because it helped Arkansas reach the 20-win plateau (John Calipari's 30th season with 20 or more) and avoid a second loss to the 12-20 Gamecocks.
On Thursday, Arkansas will have the opportunity to get off the bubble altogether if it can knock off Ole Miss.
To do so, it'll need to avenge a 73-66 loss in Fayetteville. Ole Miss held the Razorbacks to 37.3% from the field and 5-for-23 from behind the arc. Playing a second straight day won't help Arkansas' shooting while Ole Miss will have fresh legs.
Ole Miss is the more balanced team, ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That may really show up in the turnover department. The Rebels are second in Division I in turnover percentage offensively and 35th in turnover percentage defensively. They average just 8.8 turnovers per game and committed just five in the first meeting.
Arkansas is outside the top 100 in turnover percentage on both sides of the ball.
The Rebels have won the last two meetings in this series and were also 3.5-point favorites in the first meeting this year.
I like them to win by at least four again here.
