Champ Week is upon us and one of the things that makes it so exciting is the teams that are fighting to extend their seasons.
For some teams, their only path to the NCAA Tournament is to win their conference tournament and claim the automatic bid. Others just need a quality win or two or to avoid a landmine loss.
A few teams in this predicament on Wednesday include Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio State, Texas and Vanderbilt, who will be playing each other, and Oklahoma. Read on to find out who I'll be backing and who I'll be fading in our NCAAB bubble watch.
Bubble Teams to Back on Wednesday
Arkansas (-3.5) at 1 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 10
South Carolina battled in what's been the best conference in the country this season, but it only resulted in two conference wins.
One of those wins was over Arkansas on March 1 in Columbia.
The Razorbacks' loss looked like it may end their NCAA Tournament hopes, but they responded with consecutive wins at Vanderbilt and then-No. 20 Mississippi State to close the regular season.
In the last meeting, Arkansas shot just 28.8% from the field, including 3-for-22 from deep.
The Razorbacks aren't the best shooting team in the world, but they can usually hang their hat on the defensive end. They're 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and fifth in conference play. Comparatively, South Carolina is 104th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in SEC play.
Offensively, coveted FAU transfer Johnell Davis has stepped up of late, with 14 points in five of his last six games. Davis had a rough start to his season, but he's found his footing with Boogie Fland done for the year.
The Razorbacks are on the right side of the bubble entering this game, but they can't afford a second loss to the Gamecocks. KenPom projects a four-point Arkansas victory.
On a neutral court, I like the Razorbacks to shake off the lackluster performance in the last meeting and cover on Wednesday, even without Adou Thiero.
North Carolina (-7.5) at 2:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: First Four Out
Per Bracket Matrix, just 10 of 97 bracket projections have North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament field.
It may have caught a break drawing Notre Dame here instead of Pitt. The Tar Heels lost in Pittsburgh before splitting the series with a one-point victory in Chapel Hill.
North Carolina also defeated Notre Dame by one in South Bend. However, Notre Dame may be running on fumes after playing a four-overtime game on Saturday against Cal.
Notre Dame narrowly avoided another overtime game on Tuesday after a questionable call with 0.5 seconds to go gave the Irish a 55-54 victory.
Meanwhile, UNC lost to arch-rival Duke in its last time out. However, it won its previous six games, scoring 80 points in all of them and winning five by double digits.
During that winning streak, North Carolina shot nearly 48% from deep.
It's also the de facto home team playing in Charlotte.
If the Tar Heels maintain their hot shooting, they'll cruise to a comfortable victory over the Fighting Irish.
Bubble Teams to Fade on Wednesday
Texas (+1.5 or +115 ML) at 3:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: First Four Out
Texas began the season 15-7, with wins over Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas A&M. It then added victories over Kentucky and Mississippi State.
However, those are the Longhorns' only two wins in their last nine games, and now Rodney Terry's squad is in jeopardy of missing the Big Dance.
One of those losses was a 86-78 defeat to Vanderbilt in Nashville. Tre Johnson scored 15 points on 5-for-14 from the field in that game, and the Longhorns have gone as he has this season.
However, he closed the regular season shooting 0-for-14 from the field in a loss to Oklahoma.
Johnson is a good candidate to bounce back, but if he does, Vanderbilt's Jason Edwards can match him — as he did in the first meeting when he scored 17 points. The junior has averaged 16.9 points per game this season and has four 20-point games in the last month.
Ranking 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, Vanderbilt will have the better offense in this duel.
Vanderbilt could also use this victory as a projected 10-seed. Additionally, this will be a de facto home game for the Commodores, with the SEC Tournament being at Bridgestone Arena this year.
For a game that's a tossup, the favorable crowd may give Vanderbilt the edge.
Oklahoma (+2.5) at 9:30 p.m. ET
Projected Seed: 11
Johnson wasn't the only star freshman to struggle in the Texas-Oklahoma regular-season finale, as Jeremiah Fears went just 2-for-14 from the field himself.
Oklahoma was still able to pull out a 76-72 victory, but SEC wins have been hard to come by for the Sooners. After going 13-0 in non-conference play, they went just 6-12 in SEC play, winning just twice away from Norman.
Unfortunately, for them, this tournament also won't be in Norman.
The Sooners also lost their first meeting to Georgia, 72-62, in Athens.
Georgia, a projected nine seed entering the SEC Tournament, closed the regular season with four consecutive wins over Florida, Texas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt by an average margin of 10.4 points.
Oklahoma's offense against Georgia's defense will be an even matchup. However, Georgia's offense (53rd in adjusted offensive efficiency) will have an advantage against Oklahoma's defense (68th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
The Bulldogs' biggest advantage should be on the offensive glass, where it ranks 19th in offensive rebounding percentage, whereas Oklahoma is 273rd in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Bulldogs won the rebounding battle, 41-33, in the first meeting and collected 12 of 35 offensive rebound chances.
Projected lottery pick Asa Newell led the way with 15 points and five rebounds in the first meeting. Averaging 15.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, he's scored in double digits in 28 of 31 outings this season.
Look for him to show out against the Sooners once again.
