A lot of college basketball betting includes finding the best spots — buy-low, sell-high opportunities, revenge games, you name it. The next couple of weeks are critical for money teams that sit on the NCAA tournament bubble.
Each week until the end of the year, I'll be breaking down my favorite lookahead spots and games that I have circled on my betting sheet. This write-up will come every Monday and will feature spots through Saturday or Sunday.
This week, I have four specific games that I'm looking to bet upon open.
Here are my four favorite college basketball bets for the week to come, assuming the numbers remain in line with projections such as KenPom and T-Rank.
Baylor vs. BYU (Tuesday)
You can read more of my matchup breakdown here, but this is a great buy-low, sell-high opportunity.
Oh, and it’s a revenge-driven spot for BYU.
Baylor is the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the Big 12, with four different players connecting at a 40% clip or better. The Bears rank inside the top 25 nationally in both offensive rebounding and free-throw rate, using their physicality to help open up opportunities from the perimeter.
But this is also a team that's run extremely well of late. Not only is Baylor shooting too well, but the Bears are on the road, where their efficiency has dropped. They're 348th in the away-from-home metric, per Haslametrics.
Also, Langston Love has missed the last three games, and his status is up in the air for Tuesday.
BYU can light it up from the perimeter and is an extremely balanced offense. Given the motivation to avenge an early-season loss, and the fact that the Cougars are fresh off its worst loss of the season, this is a great buy spot.
Baylor’s defense has its issues (210th in eFG%) and now draws an offense that's more than capable of taking advantage of the team's weakness.
Pick: BYU -3 (Play to -4.5)
Florida vs. Alabama (Wednesday)
Alabama was able to blow Texas A&M out of the water on Saturday, but I actually think Florida stands a better chance, thanks to its higher offensive ceiling. This is also a classic letdown spot for the Tide, as they have huge game on deck at Kentucky.
Texas A&M grabbed 26 offensive rebounds in its 25-point loss to Alabama. It’s an area where Alabama normally struggles (245th), but the Aggies just couldn’t finish.
Enter the Gators. Florida is one spot below A&M in offensive rebounding rate (No. 2) and has a trio of players at 6-foot-10 or taller. Add on a better surrounding cast of shooters, and I expect UF to keep it close with Bama.
There are a lot of concerns for Alabama’s defense, per ShotQuality. The Tide are outside the top 125 in just about every metric and foul at an extremely high rate. Their offense has been able to hide some of the underlying issues.
UF is comfortable in a high-flying game, and its defense funnels opponents inside the paint towards awaiting length. I’m not saying the Gators have the all-out onslaught ability that Alabama possesses, but they have the physicality, length and talent to remain within striking distance.
Florida went on the road and won at Kentucky just a couple of weeks ago. Todd Golden’s squad is playing at an extremely high level, and with a KenPom projection close to +9, I’d be more than happy to take the underdog here.
Pick: Florida +9 (Play to +7)
Colorado State vs. New Mexico (Wednesday)
Here's another revenge spot, but this one's in the Mountain West as New Mexico returns to The Pit to take on Colorado State.
In the first game between these two, the Rams shot 59% on 2s and took 10 more free throws than UNM. It was also the conference opener.
The growth of both JT Toppin and Donovan Dent has turned New Mexico into a well-balanced offense. New Mexico looks to turn games into a track meet. It’s a never-ending downhill attack, as the Lobos finish at the rim on nearly 50% of all shot attempts.
Colorado State’s defense prefers to operate out of the half court. This is a team that doesn't make careless mistakes and looks to funnel opponents off the perimeter and into the mid-range. The Rams rank outside the top 130 in both 2-point and 3-point defense.
The last time these two teams played, New Mexico struggled to finish offensively. The Lobos are a stronger and more well-rounded roster than early on in Mountain West play and should find more success defensively this time around.
More misses means more fast-break opportunities for UNM, and there should still be plenty of turnovers, as seen in the first matchup (CSU had 15).
While The Pit hasn't been kind to New Mexico in the last two games, the Lobos are seventh in home-court advantage, per KenPom.
This is a perfect opportunity in front of a raucous crowd to exact revenge.
Pick: New Mexico -4 (Play to -6)
Duke vs. Wake Forest (Saturday)
Wake Forest has played itself out of the NCAA tournament in the last month and sits on the outside looking in. Taking down an ACC contender like Duke would provide a significant boost and would likely be the difference maker in the Deacs' postseason hopes.
Tyrese Proctor has yet to practice for Duke (concussion). His absence was definitely felt against Florida State, a down-to-the-wire game that took Jared McCain going nuclear for the Blue Devils to win.
Wake Forest kept it close (for the most part) with Duke on the road, despite shooting 23% from deep. The Demon Deacons have the size to combat Kyle Filipowski and company, limiting second-chance opportunities and covering the perimeter efficiently.
Wake Forest ranks inside the top five in Rim-and-3 Rate and shot selection on the defensive end, per ShotQuality. This is not an easy defense to beat, specifically at home.
The Demon Deacons have yet to lose a game this season inside the friendly confines of LJVM Coliseum.
I’m expecting this Wake offense to find a lot more success in this revenge opportunity and gain a much-needed Quadrant I win.
Despite dropping two straight, Haslametrics has this team No. 26 in momentum.
Back Wake to win this ACC game outright in what's quickly turning into a must-win game.
Pick: Wake Forest +1 (Play to -2.5)
Hey Wake Forest fans, did you know sports betting is coming to North Carolina? Stay up to date on the latest news about the North Carolina sports betting apps that will be live on the March 11th launch.
One last note: For what it’s worth, a great situational spot for St. John’s at home against Creighton on Saturday. But given Rick Pitino’s recent comments postgame, I am waiting to see how the Johnnies perform against Georgetown before making a decision on this Big East bout. The team that’s already in free fall and quickly falling off the bubble might just be a lost cause at this point.
