With Selection Sunday right around the corner, I intend to capitalize on a futures line that I believe is off the mark.
I'll dive into the full details below with my NCAAB Final Four futures pick and expert analysis.
(The time of writing is on Friday, so this line could move based on results, injuries, etc. Be sure to shop for the best line, as well.)
NCAAB Final Four Futures Pick
The futures market isn't solely reflective of a team’s potential. Public perception plays a massive role in how these teams are priced.
Gonzaga illustrates this point in 2025.
The Bulldogs remain an analytical darling and a fan favorite, having appeared in nine straight Sweet 16s under Mark Few. But it’s likely that Gonzaga will receive a seven or eight seed on Selection Sunday.
Yet, due to their popularity, the Bulldogs are being priced in the same neighborhood (+4000 National Title, +750 Final Four) as presumptive four seeds like Arizona and Maryland.
While bettors pay a Gonzaga “tax,” there are also undervalued teams that fall into the “non-public” category. Teams can be mispriced for a variety of reasons ranging from style of play and location to TV exposure and poor NCAA Tournament track record.
If you’re a sound defensive team that plays slow and rarely appears on national TV — like Gonzaga’s WCC rival Saint Mary’s — there’s a good chance your odds are inflated.
Despite a higher national ranking, two wins over Gonzaga and a seven-time WCC Coach of the Year on the bench, the Gaels’ odds are considerably more lucrative (+10000 National Title, +2100 Final Four) than the Zags’.
This public vs. non-public phenomenon is also playing out in the ACC, and I intend to capitalize on it. Duke has sucked up all the oxygen in the conference this season and enters the NCAA Tournament as a co-favorite to cut down the nets, alongside Auburn.
