Many college hoops bettors will be searching the futures markets for a few teams with value before the season tips off on Monday.
Since I’ve already given you five teams I believe have value, I'll now pivot and give you five teams I would recommend avoiding when building your futures portfolio.
Odds are via DraftKings unless noted otherwise
UCLA Bruins
To Win Big Ten: +600 | To Make Final Four: +1500
After a disappointing 2023-24 season, speculation about Mick Cronin’s future in Los Angeles was the center of many conversations around UCLA’s program.
Nonetheless, Cronin will be back on the sidelines as the Bruins get set to begin their season in Pauley Pavilion on Monday against Rider.
UCLA was extremely young last year and struggled to replace the talent lost from the successful teams of previous years. Cronin’s team finished with a 16-17 record, causing the coach and his staff to commit to signing veterans in the transfer portal rather than loading up on talented high school graduates again.
The Bruins will now begin a new venture in the Big Ten. If you’ve been paying attention to college football, teams that have traveled at least two time zones have seen a significant dropoff in performance and struggled to cover spreads.
UCLA will have a daunting, cross-country travel schedule during conference play. Even if the Bruins manage to win their fair share of road games in Big Ten play, I believe it’s fair to wonder if the brutal travel schedule will have a residual effect on them in postseason play.
Most seem to believe that the experienced transfers — namely Kobe Johnson (USC) and Skyy Clark (Louisville) — will quickly bring UCLA back to prominence. However, the cohesiveness of the lineup may take time to mold.
In a new and very competitive conference, I could easily see UCLA missing out on an NCAA Tournament appearance again this year.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
To Win Big Ten: +1400
The Rutgers program has experienced blips of success under the leadership of Steve Pikiell since he took over for Eddie Jordan in 2016. After NCAA Tournament appearances in 2021 and 2022, mediocrity returned to Piscataway in 2023 and 2024, as both of Pikiell’s most recent teams finished with records around .500.
Despite the recent mediocrity, optimism has returned for Rutgers fans this season.
Why? Pikiell landed undoubtedly two of the best recruits in school history. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper both committed to Rutgers despite having a plethora of schools to choose.
There hasn't been a first-round NBA draft selection to come out of Rutgers since 2006. Barring something unforeseen, both Bailey and Harper will be first-round selections after just one year in Piscataway.
Rutgers enters the season with a certain amount of respect from the media, which is reflected in its No. 25 ranking in the AP Poll.
My hesitation with buying into the Scarlet Knights’ prospects is primarily because of their presumed reliance upon such young players. Recent successful teams in the regular season — and postseason — are littered with experience.
In contrast, the one-and-done reliant teams — like Kentucky and Duke of a decade ago — have clearly decided to evolve and utilize the transfer portal.
Rutgers also utilized the portal to bring in roster additions, but their newcomers — like Tyson Acuff (Eastern Michigan) and Zach Martini (Princeton) — figure to primarily provide depth rather than be offensive focal points.
Rutgers will have the same travel challenges as UCLA, just from the completely opposite coast.
After five opening games against inferior competition, the Scarlet Knights will have to prepare for tough battles against Notre Dame, Alabama and Houston. Losses in all three of those games — which certainly seems plausible — could hinder their non-conference resume and ultimately their NCAA Tournament aspirations.
Ole Miss Rebels
To Win SEC: +4000 | To Make Final Four: +2000
Shifting away from the Big Ten, let’s focus on an ascending SEC program in Ole Miss.
Chris Beard has established his viability as a coach along his stops at Little Rock, Texas Tech and Texas. Now in his second season in Oxford, it seems most are trusting Beard will advance his team beyond the 20-12 record it finished with last season.
Unlike the two previous programs I discussed, Ole Miss actually has a solid amount of returning production back from last season. Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray, Jaemyn Brakefield and TJ Caldwell all will return to Beard’s lineup this season after they were in the top five in minutes played for the Rebels last season.
But after the Rebs floundered and lost nine of their last 11 to close their 2024 season, is the continuity really a good thing? I’m fairly skeptical.
There are always overreactions to the not-so-secret scrimmages that occur in today’s college basketball preseason. The overreactions certainly came flying in after Ole Miss impressively defeated a young, physically-inferior Illinois team.
I never react too strongly to these scrimmage results, barring any injuries that may unfortunately occur. Some coaches may prefer their team to get beat to knock their collective egos down a notch, while other coaches choose not to run any true offensive sets.
Beard did add a couple nice pieces to his roster after his team failed down the stretch last season. Sean Pedulla will provide perimeter shooting after having success in that role at Virginia Tech. Dre Davis, who started every game last season for Seton Hall, is another capable shooter with more length than Pedulla.
Nonetheless, I don’t see enough progression for Ole Miss to remain competitive throughout the course of its SEC schedule.
Indiana Hoosiers
To Win Big Ten: +650 | To Make Final Four: +1100
Let’s dip back into the Big Ten just one last time.
As shocking as it may seem to some college hoops fans, Mike Woodson will be back manning the sidelines within the historic Assembly Hall this season.
Indiana has underwhelmed the expectations of not only fans, but casual basketball viewers that respect the historical precedent the program has set.
Woodson’s teams have been deprived of competent guards in recent years. To address the backcourt issues, Myles Rice (previously of Washington State) was added to run the offense and provide stability to complement what figures to be a dominant frontcourt.
Oumar Ballo (previously at Arizona) was Goodson’s flashiest signing, and he'll be added to the key returning pieces up front in Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako.
Frankly, my hesitation to trust Indiana doesn't stem from the roster. Indiana has plenty of returning production, including Reneau, Mgbako, Trey Galloway and Gabe Cupps. The Hoosiers coupled that returning production with portal additions, most notably Rice and Ballo.
Additionally, Luke Goode joined Indiana after playing an integral role last year on an Illinois team that made an Elite Eight appearance.
Assembly Hall also is one of the best home court advantages in the country.
My hesitation solely lies at the feet of Woodson.
It seemed inevitable that Woodson wouldn’t be back to Bloomington after another disappointing season in 2023-24. Some coaches have seemed to do more with less talent in recent seasons, with examples including T.J. Otzelberger, Randy Bennett and Mark Pope.
Others, such as John Calipari (more to come on him later) and Woodson underwhelm given the talent their respective rosters seemingly have on paper.
Indiana may be improved from last season, but I still expect the Hoosiers to struggle to close out games it should win this year. If so, this could finally prove to be Woodson’s last year as Indiana’s leader.
Arkansas Razorbacks
To Win SEC: +1200 | To Make Final Four: +700
The final season of the Eric Musselman era in Fayetteville was both strange and tumultuous. However, Razorback fans weren’t forced to panic for long.
Walking through the home team’s tunnel will now, shockingly, be John Calipari.
Coupled with Calipari is always a ton of five-star talent. His first year at Arkansas will again have the on-court talent Kentucky fans have been accustomed to during his tenure in Lexington. Boogie Fland, Karter Knox and Billy Richmond are all four-star commits who are joining the Razorbacks.
D.J. Wagner, Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic all agreed to follow Calipari from Kentucky to Arkansas. Also, Johnell Davis committed to Arkansas after a couple of magical years with Dusty May at FAU and will join fellow transfer Jonas Aidoo from Tennessee.
Aidoo is a tremendous interior presence, and he'll join Trevon Brazile — a carryover from Musselman’s roster — in the Razorbacks' frontcourt.
Recruiting and assembling talent has never been an issue for Calipari. Developing the talent and building a cohesive team has been much more of a problem in recent seasons. There are a lot of mouths to feed among the many talented individual pieces on Cal’s traditional rosters, and this year will be no exception.
Based upon Calipari’s recent track record, I don’t trust Arkansas to run efficient offense in late-game situations. His teams have tended to play a lot of “my turn, your turn” offense in which the most talented players trade possessions trying to create for themselves in isolation.
If Calipari doesn’t evolve his coaching approach this season, Arkansas could struggle to develop into a cohesive unit with the chemistry necessary to win crucial games in the SEC and in postseason play.
