It all comes down to this: Florida vs. Houston in San Antonio for all the marbles.
Our experts have been following and providing college basketball picks all season long, and we have three handicappers who are all aligned on this particular best bet for Monday.
So, read below for NCAAB National Championship best bets, including three top picks and predictions for Monday, April 7.
NCAAB National Championship Best Bets
Click on the team logos to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida vs. Houston
Houston ML
I thought Auburn’s ball pressure and physicality bothered Florida in the Final Four, especially in the first half. Will Richard struggled mightily while Alex Condon looked like a boy amongst men battling with Johni Broome in the paint.
As we all know, Houston is an entirely different animal in the ball pressure and physicality departments, and I expect that to show on Monday night.
Of course, Florida won that Final Four matchup against Auburn, but the game flipped in the second half behind the Gators’ off-the-dribble creation — specifically from the magnificent Walter Clayton Jr., but also Alijah Martin.
However, Auburn’s base drop-coverage defense invites that type of dribble creation. Houston’s ball-screen blitz does the opposite, as the Cougars will attack the Gators' guards and force the ball out of their hands.
Florida doesn’t create many secondary catch-and-shoot opportunities, which is what you need to do against Houston. The Gators beat Auburn with only 11 catch-and-shoot shots (and making only three), which won’t fly in the national title game.
On the other end of the court, Houston’s ball-screen-centric offense is a fairly easy scout, and Florida is good in ball-screen coverage.
However, the Gators are also a tad weak on the defensive boards and in post-up coverage, again where Houston’s frontcourt physicality will really show — not to mention, the Cougars have the frontcourt depth to battle with Florida’s rim wall.
Kelvin Sampson is a master game-planner, and his in-game adjustments have shown during this tournament run.
I think he and the ultra-physical Cougars have the advantage over Todd Golden and the Gators.
Pick: Houston +100
Houston ML
By John Feltman
I’ve been fading Florida for the last few rounds, but I’m taking my final stand on Monday night.
Clayton's sensational tournament run has been breathtaking to watch, but the Gators have a rude awakening incoming against the Houston Cougars.
I’m still trying to process how the Coogs beat Duke on Saturday night, but they proved to the world that they’re the most relentless and toughest team college basketball has seen in the last several years.
Sampson has dreamed of an opportunity to win a National Championship, and on Monday night, he finally gets his chance. After a long wait, Sampson will now have his moment of greatness.
The Coogs may not be as explosive offensively as the Gators, but they’re the best defensive team in the nation for a reason. They'll out-hustle, out-rebound and beat opponents to a pulp for 40 minutes.
The Sampson teams of the past didn’t have the consistent scoring to win a National Championship, but he has that with star guard LJ Cryer and his explosive backcourt mate, Emanuel Sharp.
The Gators had to come from behind again on Saturday against Auburn, and I'll reiterate that they’ve been playing with fire for the entire tournament. They want to outrun their opponents with their high-octane offense, but they can’t do that against the Coogs.
Houston will slow this game to a crawl, as Auburn tried to do. If Houston can’t contain the pace, it has no chance of winning.
But I’ve never been more confident in a Sampson team. The Coogs proved on Saturday night that they can overcome the worst type of adversity in a game, and they never panic.
The Coogs’ offensive rebounding advantage should lead to plenty of second-scoring chances. It'll also slow down the Gators’ offense from running out in transition as often as they would like.
The one area Florida has played with defensive fire is on the perimeter. It did a better job containing the Tigers from the outside, but it still allowed a lot of clean looks.
The Coogs are an outstanding 3-point shooting team, and Cryer can drop 35-plus if he gets hot.
Another element that seems to be getting overlooked is that this will practically be an actual road game for the Gators, and I expect the crowd in San Antonio to be 75% pro-Houston.
Pick: Houston +100
Houston ML
By Sean Paul
You can never put the Florida Gators away. For a third time in the NCAA Tournament, the Gators looked doomed. Instead, the high-powered Florida offense found its footing late and the Gators advanced to the title game.
