Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has NCAAB picks and predictions for Saturday.
This week, I was as surprised as anyone to read that Tanner was writing up matchups that featured three ranked opponents.
We’ve come a long way from the mid-major heavy cards of December.
But fear not, gentle reader, I’ve still targeted one matchup at the bottom of the board. As a teaser, I’ll let it slip that this team’s home-court “advantage” is so non-existent that they don’t even have a band.
But we’ll start with a Big 12 bout between two programs quickly approaching in Houston’s rearview mirror.
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McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks
Baylor vs. Kansas
Kansas got Jerome Tang’d on Tuesday as the Wildcats rode more incredible late-game voodoo to another overtime win, marking their sixth overtime win this year. Under Tang's tutelage, they’re a perfect 11-0 in overtime periods.
But that only means Kansas is due for a bounce-back performance.
I mean, Bill Self always bounces back.
Under Coach Self, the Jayhawks are 52-29-3 ATS following a loss, a 64% hit rate generating a 23% ROI. That includes a 34-20-3 ATS mark in Big 12 play (63%, 21% ROI).
They’re also great at Allen Fieldhouse, as Kansas is 146-127-6 ATS at home during Self’s tenure, good for a 54% hit rate and a 4% ROI. That includes an 84-71-6 ATS mark in league games (54%, 5% ROI).
Put both together, and the ‘Hawks are 19-10-2 in conference home games following a loss, covering the spread by a 2.5-point average margin with a 66% hit rate while generating a 25% ROI for bettors.
This season alone, Kansas is 2-1 ATS in this spot, beating Oklahoma by 12 as 6.5-point favorites following a loss to UCF, and obliterating Oklahoma State by 29 as 14.5-point favorites after losing to West Virginia.
Meanwhile, it’s time for Baylor to lose a game. The Bears are likely fat-and-happy after three consecutive wins, including two in the comfy home confines of Waco.
They also shot 43% from 3 across the three victories, so I’m targeting them for some game-to-game negative shooting regression. On the flip, Kansas likely only lost to Kansas State because it shot 3-for-15 (20%) from deep, so we can target the Jayhawks for some positive game-to-game shooting regression.
And speaking of head coaches, Scott Drew always loses in Lawrence. He's 1-14 SU all-time at Allen Fieldhouse, with those 14 losses coming by an average margin of 13.5 points.
Before snagging a 12-point win in 2020, Drew had lost 12 straight on the road to Self. Baylor's lost the past three by 16, 24, and 13 points, respectively.
It's time for Baylor to lose a game, and the Bears almost always lose on the road against the Jayhawks.
But the juicy part of this handicap is the schematic matchup.
The Jayhawks are an interior-based offense, utilizing cutters, rollers and posters to generate 39 paint points per game – Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCuller, and KJ Adams dominate the paint, combining for 29 of those 39.
They rank first among Big 12 teams in 2-point shooting during conference play, hitting a whopping 59% from inside the arc. They battled the nation’s best defense in Houston last week in Lawrence and shot 25-for-32 (78%) from 2.
Scott Drew rose to fame – and became a National Champion – on the back of the no-middle defense. The coverage forces ball-handlers to the sidelines and baselines on the perimeter, viciously denying the middle of the floor, the paint, and the rim at all costs.
Unfortunately, Drew doesn’t have the roster to execute the no-middle.
The big issue is the backcourt. Jakobe Walter is an OK defender, but RayJ Dennis, Jaden Nunn, and Langston Love are borderline-turnstiles.
| Guard | PnR Ball-Handler PPP Allowed | EvanMiya DBPR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RayJ Dennis | .98 (16th percentile) | 1.1 (79th of 112 B12 players) | |
| Jayden Nunn | .83 (39th percentile) | 1.4 (65th) | |
| Langston Love | .78 (47th percentile) | .23 (100th) |
As a result, Baylor can’t execute the no-middle at the point of attack, as opposing ball-handlers have throttled the Bears with dribble penetration.
Meanwhile, Yves Missi was supposed to be the versatile, athletic, rim-protecting anchor of a classically good Drew defense. Instead, he’s playing below average, so Baylor can’t stop posters (.90 PPP allowed, 31st percentile) or roll-men (1.17 PPP allowed, 12th percentile).
Put it all together, and you have a no-middle defense that can’t protect the middle. Baylor’s allowing over 31 paint points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in 2-point shooting allowed during league play (54%).
Baylor's rim is anyone's for the taking, and that’s a death sentence against Kansas.
Especially now that the Jayhawks now have Johnny Furphy spacing the floor and making shots (42% from 3).
In the early season, Kansas had no shot-makers or floor-spacers, so opposing defenses hovered over the interior, wrecking Dajuan Harris and Dickinson's two-man actions and messing with the Jayhawks' offensive flow.
But they now have a legitimate perimeter spot-up threat that opposing defenses must respect (1.4 spot-up PPP, 98th percentile), stretching defenses and opening up those all-important lanes for Harris, Dickinson, McCullar and Adams to work.
The ball movement looks much cleaner and crisper with Furphy on the floor. Check out this play:
In the past, right-corner defender Dai Dai Ames could've hovered closer to the rim because he didn't have to respect the Jayhawk shooters. But here, he's forced to shadow Furphy in the corner — and subsequently closed out on him as the play ended — allowing Harris to retrieve his lost handle and dish the ball to Adams in the high post, where Adams makes a great decision and swings the ball inside-out to McCullar for an open corner 3.
Furphy might be the key that unlocks the Hawks' offensive ceiling.
The lineup splits suggest such. The Jayhawks don't even shoot much better from deep with Furphy on the floor, but his mere presence considerably improves their interior efficiency.
Kansas ranks first in the Big 12 in eFG% during conference play (57%) and second in offensive efficiency, only trailing Texas Tech because the Red Raiders are shooting an unsustainable 41% from 3. The Jayhawks are arguably the best offense in the nation's best conference.
Speaking of Harris, his defense will be crucial on Saturday.
Baylor’s guards can’t defend, but Drew has sacrificed backcourt defense for explosive backcourt spacing, shooting and scoring. Walter, Dennis, Nunn, and Love are devastating ball-screen creators, and the quartet is shooting a combined 42% from downtown (122-for-290). The Bears lead the nation in 3-point shooting (41%).
But Harris is among the nation’s best ball-screen point-of-attack defenders, and Self is arguably the best ball-screen coverage schemer and adjuster. So, Kansas is a top-50 pick-and-roll defense nationally (.94 PPP allowed).
Of course, the Jayhawks’ are vulnerable from the 3-point line, ranking 12th in the conference in Open 3 Rate allowed during league play.
If Baylor shoots 45% from 3 on high volume on Saturday, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on. But I’m banking on further shooting regression after a three-game hot streak. The Bears have seen some regression in conference play after shooting 47% in the non-con, shooting under 30% during a six-game January stretch, resulting in three wins (Oklahoma State, BYU, Cincinnati) and losses (Kansas State, Texas, TCU), so there is evidence to suggest the Bears are closer to a 35% 3-point shooting team than the nation's best.
Plus, it’s always hard to shoot on the road. Especially at Allen, where opponents have shot only 32% from deep this season.
Ultimately, I’m betting Kansas obliterates Baylor at the rim while denying the Bears’ ball-screen actions in a classic bounce-back home victory over a team ripe for regression.
And I’m happy laying two possessions in the process.
Pick: Kansas -6.5 | Play to -7
Boise State vs. Utah State
A few weeks ago, Utah State shot 6-for-23 (26%) from 3 against Broncos in Boise while allowing Boise to shoot 9-for-28 (32%).
And the Aggies won in overtime, 90-84.
Everything that could’ve gone right for the Broncos did.
Boise’s offense leverages its versatile positional size to post up everywhere, and it scored 23 points on 20 post-up sets (1.15 PPP) against Utah State.
Boise crashes the offensive boards better than any Mountain West team, leading the league in offensive rebounding rate (35%) and second-chance points per game (12). The Broncos played volleyball on the glass against a good Utah State rebounding unit, scoring 18 second-chance points on 14 offensive rebounds.
Boise boasts a borderline-elite post-up defense (.76 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), and the Broncos contained stud big man Great Osobor to 3-for-5 shooting with seven turnovers.
And they still lost on their home floor. And they can’t credit it to shooting variance.
The Broncos are in a much worse spot now. Utah State is in fire-it-up, bounce-back mode following consecutive losses, and Boise is preparing for its second straight road game at high altitude after losing to Colorado State on Tuesday – Fort Collins sits over 5,000 feet of elevation while Logan is just short of that mark.
I'm worried about Boise's legs. The Broncos rank 307th nationally in bench minutes, riding their five-man starting lineup hard. Depth might cost them in, again, their second straight road game at high altitude.
Let’s discuss what went right for Utah State's road victory over Boise.
Danny Sprinkle has built the Mountain West’s most dangerous cut-and-post rim-based offense behind Great Osobor.
The Aggies score 20 points per game through cutters and posters, with Osobor getting plenty of looks, dropping 19 points per game and 13 paint points per game on 60% shooting.
The Aggies are shooting a Mountain West-best 57% from 2-point range in conference play, and their 41 paint points per game rank second only to New Mexico’s 42. They rank top 50 nationally in at-the-rim frequency (43%) and top 20 in at-the-rim PPP (1.27).
Boise State is borderline-elite at defending post-up sets (.76 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), but the Broncos are among the worst at defending cutters (1.36 PPP allowed, 350th nationally).
Either way, in the prior matchup, the Aggies managed 17 points on 15 cutting actions (1.13 PPP) and nine on 12 post-up sets (.75) en route to 38 paint points on 23-for-27 (62%) shooting from inside the arc. They scored 11 point-blank buckets on 13 attempts and dominated the paint similarly.
Utah State also scored 18 points on 15 transition run-outs (1.2 PPP). The Aggies get out in transition at an above-average rate, and the Broncos aren’t great at defending in the open court (1.15 PPP allowed, 338th nationally). It showed.
I think Boise’s roster construction is a problem in this particular matchup. Leon Rice prioritizes versatility and switchability on defense, with four of his starting five players standing between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-8. While the Broncos leverage versatility and athleticism in post-up sets and on the boards, they’re still small and therefore vulnerable on the interior against, for example, a dominant cut-and-post rim-based offense led by a superstar low-block scorer and his 7-foot frontcourt mate (Isaac Johnson, 56th percentile in post-up PPP with .91).
I don’t think Boise matches up well with Utah State, which explains a home loss despite perfect game-plan execution.
The schematic matchup was much different, so take it with a grain of salt, but the Aggies swept the Broncos last year when Ryan Odom was still in town. If Saturday goes as I expect, Boise State might have a Mountain West boogeyman to worry about.
I also want to factor in some regression discussion, as I love to do.
Both teams are getting lucky from 3 on defense. But Boise is getting a little luckier, given opponents are shooting only 28% from downtown despite the Broncos ranking eighth in the Mountain West in Open 3 Rate allowed and 292nd nationally in High Quality 3s allowed, per ShotQuality.
And while Boise is shooting 35% from 3, Utah State hasn’t made a shot all season. The Aggies are shooting only 31% from 3 (219th nationally), but ShotQuality projects that number should be closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts (just above the D-I average).
They rank first in the league in ShotQuality’s Shot Selection metric, so more shots are bound to fall, and this is a good matchup for the positive regression train to pull into Logan station.
Laying the points with Utah State is a good situational, regression and schematic play. I’m betting the Aggies cut, post, rim-run, and shoot their way to a big bounce-back win against a poor interior and lucky perimeter defense while Boise's short rotation runs out of gas trying to keep pace.
I can't believe the market opened USU -3.5. The ShotQualityBets model projects Utah State as a 10-point home favorite over Boise.
I agree, as I think the Aggies win by double-digits, standing pat at the top of the league standings.
Pick: Utah State -3.5 | Play to -5
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Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks
Colgate vs. Loyola Maryland
The Greyhounds are 0-8 ATS on their home floor this year.
And that ain’t new. Loyola has long been the worst-performing home team in the Patriot League, only covering 39% of home games across the past three seasons. EvanMiya projects the Hounds with the 352nd-strongest home-court advantage nationally.
As a Loyola alum, I can attest to the lack of atmosphere. The program didn’t even have a band during my time on campus. They opted to rent out a local high school band instead. These musical mercenaries would arrive late, leave early and really only get going during media timeouts for sub-500-person crowds.
Suffice it to say, this is a program you want to bet against when they’re hosting.
And in terms of catching a good number, we’re also in luck.
The Greyhounds have experienced the “dead cat bounce” in Patriot League play. They knocked off 8-14 Navy on the road and then upset American in D.C.
The American win defied explanation, but I'll attempt to explain anyway.
Loyola scored just 44 points and won, becoming the first school this season to shoot below 30% from the field and win (29.4%). American went 2-for-25 (8%) from long range and dropped that embarrassing contest.
This 2-2 “run” is propping up the spread, which I make closer to Colgate -15.
The Greyhounds are already among the worst offensive teams in the country, checking in at 346th nationally in offensive efficiency (EvanMiya). They shoot poorly, ranking 308th in shooting efficiency and 348th in free-throw percentage. They also throw the ball away as much as any Patriot League team, ranking 333rd in turnover rate.
Against a formidable Colgate defense, none of those things are likely to change.
Matt Langel usually relies upon a dynamic offense that’s lights out from 3-point range. But this season, he’s coached up the Raiders on the defensive end and helped them crack the top 50 in shooting efficiency allowed. That’s why Colgate is 10-1 SU in conference and a sterling 8-3 ATS.
With lowly Holy Cross on deck, there's no lookahead factor for Colgate, nor are there any travel or turnaround concerns after a mid-week road trip to Boston University.
The Raiders handled Loyola by 23 back in early January by suffocating Loyola on the defensive end. The Greyhounds scored just two points in the opening 8:24 of the second half. I foresee more of the same from Tavaras Hardy’s team as he plays out the string in what should be his last season in North Baltimore.
Pick: Colgate -12.5 | Play to -13
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
Now positioned to snag a one-seed on Selection Sunday next month, Tennessee is hitting a sleepy stretch.
The Vols leveled Florida, Alabama and Vandy at the end of January. They lost a defensive-minded battle to South Carolina but bounced back with their best 40 minutes of basketball on the offensive end in years during a 103-92 whupping of Kentucky in Lexington.
So, you can forgive Rick Barnes and his troops for not circling the stretch of A&M, Arkansas, Vandy (again) and Mizzou on their schedule.
Only one of these squads has the goods to take advantage of a distracted Tennessee team.
When you buy the Aggies, you’re getting three things as of today.
First, you’re getting the nation's best offensive rebounding team by a large margin.
The only O-Glass unit that has come close to the Aggies over the past 15 years is the 2011 Old Dominion Monarchs. Those Monarchs won the CAA and secured a nine-seed in the Big Dance thanks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 44.9%. The Aggies are currently tops nationally at 43%, an insane number for a power-conference program.
Second, you’re getting Wade Taylor IV.
The junior guard can simply take over games, as he has on numerous occasions this season. He’s scored 30-plus four times over the past two months. He helped A&M outlast Kentucky and nearly orchestrated an upset of Houston in the Halal Guys Classic.
For the record, those Halal combo platters only work because they have complementary elements.
Which brings us to the Aggies’ complementary scoring.
Henry Coleman III was a trustworthy secondary option in the early season, but his efficiency has nosedived.
Luckily, Tyrece “Boots” Radford has elevated his game. Despite legal troubles from an arrest alleging that he evaded police, Radford is playing his best basketball of the season.
And his teammates and head coach appear to have his back, publicly praising his focus and commitment to the team. He recently dropped 26 against Florida — including the game-winning bucket in the final minute — and 22 against Mizzou in a laugher.
Against a devastating Tennessee interior defense, he’ll need to knock down jumpers and be willing to score in the paint for A&M to keep pace.
I still think the market is too low on the Aggies, given that they could easily be on a seven-game winning streak. Their only two losses during the stretch came by one to Arkansas and three to Ole Miss.
According to Haslametrics, A&M is the most inconsistent team in the SEC by a wide margin. But that cuts both ways, evidenced by its elevated play against Houston and Kentucky.
Saturday also means a great deal to A&M regarding its postseason aspirations. Currently projected as a 10-seed by Bracket Matrix, it needs this win to feel comfortable about being on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.
It wouldn’t hurt if the Aggies could knock down a few more triples – they currently rank 357th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (26.6%). That leaves them with a much higher offensive ceiling if they can even shoot a touch above 30%.
I’ll be on the Aggies plus the points and sprinkle some on the moneyline.
Pick: Texas A&M +3.5 | Play plus-money ML if +3 or worse
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