If you don't know who I am, my name is Tanner McGrath. I'm a Southern Vermont native (Manchester) and dyed-in-the-wool Catamount superfan who, over the years, became obsessed with all the teams — a true America East fanatic, as my friends call me.
Somehow, I've convinced my editors to let me cover the league in-depth for The Action Network. I'm your leading source for all things America East-related, including gambling.
This is my America East Conference Play Update column.
If you do know who I am, you've likely read my coverage of the league before. Unfortunately, this update is a bit late and slightly shorter than my usual AmEast monstrosities due to the general business of my personal and professional life. Some of you will be sad to hear that, most of you will likely be relieved.
Still, I thought our loyal readers would like to hear some incoherent ramblings on all nine teams as we enter the second week of conference play.
I'd also like to make an announcement:
Starting Friday, Jan. 17th, the Big Bets On Campus Podcast will feature a weekly America East segment hosted by yours truly. Every Friday, I'll give you my gambling and non-gambling-related updates on the league, including futures talk and any gambling notes for the upcoming week of games. So, if you enjoy these previews, please tune in to the podcast every Friday.
With that said, let's dive in. Here's what I expect will happen in the 2025 America East Conference regular season.
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UMass Lowell River Hawks
Are you surprised?
Are you shocked?
Did you assume that Vermont would be kicking off this conference play update?
Not so fast, my friends.
We’ll talk more about Vermont and its woes soon enough, but let’s talk about the up-and-coming River Hawks, who look prepared to ascend to the top of the America East — or, in other words, Where Champions Rise.
The long and the short of it is that the River Hawks can outscore anyone. They’ve already dropped over 90 points in six separate games this season, including a near-upset of Saint Louis on the road.
Pat Duquette is still running his flex-motion rim-reliant offense — hence the River Hawks' 10 cutting possessions per game (fourth nationally) at 1.26 PPP (62nd percentile) — with Max Brooks (16 PPG), Quinton Mincey (16 PPG), and Cam Morris III (9 PPG) obliterating the rim while drawing fouls.
As a quick aside — Brooks would be my vote for Conference POTY if the season ended today.
He’s averaging nearly 15 points, eight rebounds and three blocks per game while shooting a ridiculous 73% from the field. He’s scoring nearly 12 paint and three second-chance PPG — you don’t have to run sets for him because he’ll obliterate the offensive glass and put back everything.
But when you run sets for him, Brooks averages over 1.3 PPP on cutting, rolling and posting sets, ranking right around the 90th percentile of D-I players. He’s been similarly good at guarding opposing post-up sets (.58 PPP allowed, 86th percentile).
He’s been a historically efficient all-around two-way player for the league’s best team. He passes the eye test, too, as you can feel his impact on the court.
Anyway, the ascension of freshman combo guard Martin Somerville gives the River Hawks a new level of dynamism.
The seven-time AmEast Rookie of the Week burst onto the scene as a pure spot-up shooter, canning nearly 45% of his five 3-point attempts per game. Shooting hamstrung the team last season, but combining Somerville’s prowess with Mincey’s pick-and-pop ability and Covington’s typically solid shot (although he’s having a down year) provides way more spacing, freeing up the interior for more cuts and rolls. Overall, the River Hawks now combine their typical 38 PPG (42nd nationally) with legit perimeter threats, which is devastating.
Somerville is quickly becoming an adept ball-screen operator (1.08 PPP, 91st percentile), giving the Hawks an explosive primary ball-handler in the backcourt — and a replacement for Ayinde Hikim.
He also adds nearly two steals per game on the other end.
Somerville is a legit high-major guard masquerading as the America East Rookie of the Year (gee, I wonder who could’ve predicted that). He’ll soon be in the portal, but River Hawk Nation will enjoy these next few months.
He's even more critical considering Jacksonville State transfer Quincy Clark has been underwhelming as the de facto point guard. He’s shooting OK from inside the arc (48%) and has been fine in ball screens (.86 PPP, 65th percentile), but he also can’t shoot from deep and has posted a horrific 26% turnover rate.
As such, Lowell’s historical turnover problem has not gone away. The team ranks sub-230th nationally in offensive turnover rate.
However, South Florida/DePaul transfer Caleb Murphy could be back any day now, and he’s the purest point guard of them all. He tallied a 28% assist rate to a 15% turnover rate in his final year with South Florida (2021-22), and the River Hawks could become an unstoppable offensive force with him setting the table.
I’m picturing a Murphy-Somerville-Covington-Mincey-Brooks lineup and getting shivers down my spine. A legit ball-handler with vision, three elite off-ball shooters, and a dominant interior force. That five-man lineup could out-score anyone in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, that doesn’t address the other end of the court.
Lowell’s defense is still a bit of a mess. Brooks is an elite interior defender and rim protector. Still, Morris and Mincey are consistently hunted in post-up and isolation sets, leading to an overall lackluster paint defense (39 paint PPG allowed, 11th-most nationally).
Additionally, Somerville is an undersized point-of-attack defender who’s been shredded in ball screens (.91 PPP allowed, 25th percentile), and Clark isn’t much better (.92 PPP allowed, 23rd percentile).
The River Hawks' transition defense has been horrific so far (1.16 PPP allowed, seventh percentile), which is brutal combined with their turnover woes (17 transition PPG allowed, 329th nationally).
Also, nobody has been rebounding. The once-dominant two-way glass cleaners rank sub-280th nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.
The saving grace is that Duquette is running even more drop-coverage with Brooks, which has effectively run opponents off the 3-point line (22nd nationally in 3-point rate allowed).
But while that five-man lineup would be heroic on offense, it would be small and dangerously exploitable on defense.
Unfortunately, that showed in last week's home loss to Vermont. The Catamounts brutalized Lowell on the glass, snagging 17 offensive rebounds and winning the shot-volume battle by 15.
The River Hawks will have a tough time in head-to-head matchups with Vermont because they’re a rim-reliant offense trying to score against the league’s most versatile rim protector in Ileri Ayo-Faleye. However, their 12-for-30 (40%) 2-point shooting performance is likely a one-game-sample-size anomaly.
Although, as an aside, Lowell looked similarly disjointed in the second half of the NJIT game last Saturday, which could be something to monitor over the next few weeks — Mincey might have the yips. But I'd be surprised if some of these issues don't self-correct soon.
Vermont looks brutal, and Bryant has some concerning issues I’ll touch on in the next section. A few weeks ago, I bet Lowell to win the America East regular season at +175 (as a slight “hedge” to my other positions). I highly recommend you do the same if a book is pricing them even or close to the other contenders.
Lowell isn’t perfect, but the Hawks should outscore everyone en route to their first AmEast regular-season title.
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Bryant Bulldogs
Bryant has posted a 110.8 Offensive Rating with Rafael Pinzon on the court.
That number drops to 94.1 with him off the court.
So, it’s unsurprising that the Bulldogs lost three consecutive games to Fordham, Towson and Grand Canyon (by 56!) after he went down with a lower-body injury against St. John’s.
The Bulldogs have the same primary issue as last year: They still don’t create good shots. They rank sub-280th nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate. Two-thirds of their catch-and-shoot jumpers are guarded, the 26th-highest rate in the country. They’re a transition-reliant offense that generates .97 PPP in the open court. They’re heavily reliant on runners and hook shots.
The Bulldogs are dynamic and athletic but spend most of their time sprinting into crowded lanes and pulling up. This is a brutally inefficient way to create offense.
Pinzon is having an incredible season, averaging 19 PPG while shooting a ridiculous 53% from deep, the second-highest mark among qualified Division I players.
But he represents everything wrong with the Bryant offense.
Without Pinzon’s spacing on the floor, the driving lanes become even more crowded for Earl Timberlake, Barry Evans, and Connor Withers, which explains why the trio is shooting a combined 47% from 2-point range this year.
And that further explains why Bryant has posted a 94.1 Offensive Rating without Pinzon on the court. That would be a bottom 25 mark nationally, just behind Grambling State.
Luckily, Pinzon returned for conference play, and the offense immediately opened up in blowouts of Maine and Vermont. I also suspect the Bulldogs will see some positive close-game regression after brutal one-possession losses to Siena (overtime), Stonehill, Brown and Fordham.
The defense gives me pause.
The Bulldogs were a dominant isolation-and-rim-funneling defense last season because they leveraged their unique wing athleticism in a rim-protection-by-committee style. However, while still effectively isolation-and-rim funneling, they were much less effective in the non-con. After leading the nation in at-the-rim PPP last season, they dropped to 41st on higher volume. After ranking ninth nationally in 2-point defense last season (45%), they dropped to 143rd (50%).
But that seems to have self-corrected through the first week of conference play, as the Bulldogs held Vermont and Maine to 44% shooting from the interior while adding nine blocks (a 14% rate that leads the league). They also showed their unique athleticism on the boards, leading the AmEast in offensive rebounding rate (39%).
Connor Withers deserves a shout-out here. He's capable of being a higher-usage scorer (10 PPG on 32% 3-point shooting), but he's adding over two assists and three stocks per game. Forcing turnovers and moving the rock is an excellent way to make a two-way impact off the wing.
That said, Vermont and Maine are two of the league’s weaker interior offenses. I’m uncertain if we’ll continue to see an upward trend or regression toward the non-conference mean.
Bryant will forever be dangerous because the Bulldogs are so uniquely talented — the Bulldogs are uber-athletic and quick despite starting natural forwards at all five positions.
Earl Timberlake is still the league’s best player for my money, averaging 16/8/5 with over a block per game as the point forward for the league's only 2-0 squad. And Barry Evans deserves a nod for his surprising three-level explosiveness, averaging 14/7/3 with nearly two stocks per game. Same with Kvonn Cramer and Keyshawn Mitchell for effectively tag-teaming the five with hops.
But the issues are real, and I’m worried that continually poor offensive execution combined with slightly worse defense will lead to some surprising results. I sometimes wonder if just putting a pure point guard on this team would help some of these issues, but it's hard to imagine there's a better ball-handling and vision option than Timberlake.
All that said, Bryant beat Vermont for the first time since joining the America East last Saturday, which could’ve exercised some demons. The league is as wide open as ever, and the Bulldogs have the talent to burst through the door.
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Maine Black Bears
The Black Bears were 8-5 on Dec. 15. They already pulled off excellent wins against Duquesne and Elon, two KenPom top-150 teams. The two-point win over Brown after trailing by seven with six minutes left was precisely the type of game they’d lose last season.
The Bears were doing what they’ve always done under Chris Markwood. Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton are still the two best POA defenders in the league, so running ball screens against them (.62 PPP allowed, 93rd percentile), at least without turning it over (22% defensive turnover rate, 16th nationally), is impossible.
Markwood has shown his coaching chops this year. I had the pleasure of covering Maine’s home game against Albany last Saturday, and I got to see up close and personal what a mastermind he is — he coached circles around Dwayne Killings.
Markwood’s been shifting seamlessly between man-to-man coverage and different zone-trap looks, consistently showing opponents different looks. By leveraging the Tynes-Clayton duo on the perimeter, opposing offenses are having a brutal time initiating sets without seeing ghosts.
By the way, Tynes is averaging a whopping 3.3 steals per game. He’s been swarming on that side of the rock. He's the favorite to take home his third consecutive AE DPOY award.
Maine still hasn’t entirely figured out its frontcourt rotations. I misread the situation in the preseason, as I thought Ridvan Tutic would be the starting center, given his rock-solid interior defensive skills. Instead, Markwood has opted for freshman Keelan Steele’s surprising athletic pop and Siena transfer Killian Gribben’s shot-blocking prowess.
I don’t exactly love Maine’s center rotation, but the Bears are a guard-and-wing-friendly team on both sides of the rock. The interior defense will always be weak by design because they’re so extended and aggressive on the perimeter.
What’s more important is that the perimeter offense has started to come together.
The wings have started to shine. AJ Lopez and Quion Burns have combined for 25 PPG, with Lopez shooting nearly 40% from 3. Christopher Mantis has been everything I’d imagine in Orono, shooting 44% from 3 while generating 1.17 PPP on off-ball screening actions (74th percentile).
But things started to get ugly. The Bears closed out the non-con with one-possession losses to Stony Brook and Boston University, the latter being a colossal late-game collapse that reminded me too much of last year’s team.
Maine opened up conference play with a blowout loss to Bryant, which was how it ended last year’s campaign in the first round of the conference tournament.
So, what do we make of this? Has Maine made significant strides with its wing scoring? Or are the Black Bears falling into old habits?
Through three games in conference play, it seems to be the former. Maine’s canned 44% of its triples, by far the league’s best mark. Lopez, Burns and Mantis are draining everything.
That mainly helps Tynes, who is ascending as a distributor, as he leads the AmEast in APG with nearly five. That's mainly because there are actual spacing and shooting options on the floor when he runs ball screens, and he’s no longer dribbling for 20 seconds in crowded lanes and settling for a mid-range shot. I think he's always had this playmaking ability, but now he has the requisite guys to make plays for.
Even better, Maine can adjust as defenses get dragged toward the perimeter. Once the lanes open, Maine can continue running its ball-screen motion with off-ball cutters instead of spread-out shooters, so the wings and big men have been earning easy layups thanks to the lights-out 3-point shooting.
All that said, I’m uncertain what will happen once the regression monster rears its ugly head.
There’s no way that Maine keeps shooting over 40% from 3, even on low volume — for what it’s worth, ShotQuality projects the Bears should be shooting closer to 34% from deep based on the “quality” of attempts.
The key to Maine’s season has always been the wing shooters. If Lopez, Burns and Mantis make shots, the Bears can beat anyone on any given night — that’s why I snagged a 25-to-1 regular-season title future on them a few weeks ago, although that number is long gone now (the last price I saw was 8-to-1).
But if they don’t make their shots, the lanes get clogged, and the offense turns back into that inefficient, mid-range-reliant, ugly scheme we saw for most of last year. Although their shot-diet is noticeably improved, the Bears still take too many middle-of-the-floor jumpers.
A brutal shooting stretch (10-for-33 for 3) resulted in that loss to lowly Boston University, followed by that gross blowout defeat at Bryant — the Bears failed to crack 56 in either game.
I’m fearful a draught is coming in Orono, given they’re due for so much negative shooting regression. We’ll likely see a few 55-point losing efforts over the next few weeks.
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Vermont Catamounts
How the mighty have fallen.
Where to begin?
Has Vermont been the nation’s most disappointing team?
The Catamounts are 5-12 ATS and boast the nation’s sixth-worst average cover margin (-6.1).
They’ve lost to five KenPom sub-200 teams, including by 30 at Dartmouth and by one on a neutral to 316th-ranked Fairfield. They’ve dropped 15 adjusted efficiency points and 158 ranking spots in KenPom’s ratings from the preseason, which is by far the most significant negative change for any team.
There are many reasons for this Catastrophic Catamount Calamity, not the least of which is health. Nick Fiorillo, Shy Odom and Jace Roquemore have missed large swaths of games, while Shamir Bogues has been battling a nagging injury that’s affected his off-the-bounce explosiveness — he’s been struggling mightily in ball-screens coverage (.94 PPP allowed, 21st percentile), which makes no sense after last season’s dominance.
TJ Long’s absence has been felt the hardest. He’s dealing with an array of injuries, and the program can’t quite figure out the root cause of the issue. There’s no timetable for a return, and Vermont’s offense has been stale and ineffective without his floor spacing and shooting.
None of the returning players have improved, and some have regressed. Bogues, Ileri Ayo-Faleye and Sam Alamutu haven’t made significant progress as perimeter threats. They allow opponents to shrink the floor and force the Catamounts to beat them over the top, something they can’t do without Long.
I think TJ Hurley has been playing pretty awesome ball (15 PPG on 41%/34%/96% shooting splits), cementing himself as the offense's top option. Still, I'd like to see him handle the rock more and boost that assist rate (10%). Frankly, his mid-range pull-up floater/jumper tweener shot often annoys me, but that’s sometimes the best shot the Cats can get because of how brutal the spacing is.
I’m quite high on freshman guard Sean Blake, who has flashed moments of greatness alongside more general explosiveness. But, like any frosh guard, he’s been wildly inconsistent, shooting well under expectation (47%/30%/47% shooting splits) while throwing the ball away far too often (32% turnover rate).
Noah Barnett has been the more impressive freshman, but he’s also missed time lately with an injury.
From a higher-level, more general team perspective, the Catamounts are struggling in two specific areas.
Ball-handling and rebounding are tenants of John Becker’s program, and the Catamounts are doing neither right now, ranking sub-250th nationally in offensive turnover rate and sub-150th in defensive rebounding rate.
That’s a nightmare. Vermont is a down-tempo, perimeter-oriented attack that attempts to generate low-volume-but-high-efficiency offense through methodical half-court sets. But losing the turnover and rebounding battles means you’re losing the shot-volume battle, and that’s a death sentence in lower-possession game scripts.
However, it’s not all bad news.
Ayo-Faleye is still arguably the league’s best interior defender, swatting a whopping 2.2 shots per game. Thanks to his paint patrolling and Vermont’s guard length, the Cats can play solid interior defense (48% 2-point shooting allowed, 78th nationally) while leveraging their still-lengthy guard corps to run shooters off the 3-point line (36% 3-point rate allowed, 90th).
I also think Becker is starting to realize he can’t play the same way he did in the past, especially without Long. I saw the Cats aggressively adjust in the second half of the New Hampshire game (while watching courtside, I might add) as they began to play some extended 2-3 zone defense, force more turnovers (19) and figure out how to pressure the rim in transition (15 points on 14 possessions).
Essentially, Becker decided the perimeter-oriented, down-tempo, passive two-way gameplan wouldn’t cut it with the shorthanded roster, so he started pressing the issue on both ends of the court.
Ayo-Faleye’s continued rim dominance and schematic changes led to a remarkable upset win at Lowell. Ileri held Lowell to 12-for-30 (40%) shooting from 2-point range, and the historically turnover-prone River Hawks threw the ball away 10 times (15%), gifting the Catamounts 15 points on 11 transition possessions (1.36 PPP). Plus, as mentioned, the Catamounts scored 16 second-chance points on a whopping 17 offensive rebounds, a mark unfathomable for Becker’s five-out perimeter-oriented offense just a year ago.
I imagine you’ll see more aggressive two-way play from Vermont throughout the conference season as the Catamounts attempt to counter their lackluster defensive rebounding and offensive spacing with more transition, second-chance and post buckets.
Of course, the most significant advantage the Catamounts had in this league over the past few years was its elite transition-denial defense, which helped keep some of the more up-tempo league teams uncomfortable. Being more aggressive means they're playing more into a team like Bryant's hands, which explains why the Bulldogs handed Vermont its first 20-point loss in conference play in over 20 years — the last time that happened, Tom Brennan was still the head coach, and Bryant was rolling toward the D-II Final Four.
Lost in this madness is Fiorillo, who is becoming an absolute stud in his fifth-year senior season. The former walk-on is averaging 14 PPG on 47%/38%/79% shooting splits since returning from injury on Dec. 15 against Colgate. He’s been a surprisingly active defender, grading out well against opposing post-up (.62 PPP allowed, 81st percentile) and spot-up (.54 PPP allowed, 94th percentile) sets while nabbing six steals during the stretch, including two second-half ones in post defense against the Wildcats that led to easy run-out buckets.
His versatile three-level offensive play and clear leadership skills will be crucial for Vermont to make a run in the conference.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Kings In The America East quickly figured it out and stormed back to take the crown that’s been rightly theirs — Becker has figured it out on the fly before. But there are more issues than ever before, deep-seated ones that I suspect lead to a change of guard at our beloved conference.
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Albany Great Danes
The Danes lost their conference opener to Lowell by four, and that’s enough evidence to tell me Albany can compete with anyone in the America East.
Albany went tit-for-tat for 40 minutes, leading by four at the half. Yes, the River Hawks shot just 4-for-22 (18%) from 3, but the Danes shot 2-for-18 (11%). ShotQuality’s post-game grading system had the game as a 16-point Albany win based on each team's “quality” of attempts.
The game perfectly encapsulated why I’m so high on Albany.
Their athleticism shined. There’s so much two-way versatility.
The Danes take care of the ball and play active perimeter defense, ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover rate — Byron Joshua, Amar’e Marshall, DeMarr Langford and Kheni Briggs have combined for 94 steals to just 102 turnovers.
They also smash the boards. Former AE ROY Justin Neely’s resurgence at the forward spot has been tremendous, as he’s an elite two-way rebounding big man. However, Langford has leveraged his high-major athleticism into tons of second-chance interior opportunities, averaging nearly double-digit paint PPG on 86% shooting from that area.
The Danes match up well with the River Hawks because the Hawks are turnover-prone on offense and vulnerable on the interior on defense, especially when defending in isolation or rebounding. Considering Albany's isolation-hunting offense and emphasis on winning the extras, the Danes took 18 more shots than the Hawks in their head-to-head matchup.
A +18 shot-volume margin is insane. That’s enough to compete in and win almost any game, and I think it’s sustainable.
Offensively, Marshall is starting to settle in post-injury and become the electric three-level scoring guard we all know he is, averaging over 15 PPG since the calendar flipped to December.
Joshua has been taking full advantage of playing in a more up-tempo system, scoring 12.5 PPG while dishing out over three APG as the team's main table setter.
Kheni Briggs has been a welcome floor-spacer, shooting nearly 34% from 3 in Aaron Reddish’s absence.
In addition to their rebounding prowess, Langford and Neely have been monsters playing bully-ball off the wings. The duo combines to shoot 60% from 2-point range while shredding opponents in post-up (nearly 1.1 PPP) and roll-man (nearly 1.4 PPP) sets. They’ve been crazy efficient because they’re too strong for a guard but too quick for a lumbering big man.
For what it's worth, Neely and Langford both rank in the top three among AmEast players in CBB Analytics' RAPM, the site's all-in-one two-way "impact" metric. They've been overly impactful to the Danes' success so far.
Finally, Kacper Klaczek has been playing alright recently. He’s been electric in transition (1.3 PPP) and as a roll-man (1.35 PPP), providing Albany with another lengthy bully-ball wing.
At their peak, Albany is super dynamic, sharing the ball with pace to several different playmakers with different offensive skill sets who can cook in one-on-one matchups.
Of course, there’s a reason why the Danes have lost eight of their past 12 games.
Dwayne Killings runs a drop-coverage defense with either the 6-foot-6 Neely or 6-foot-8 Klaczek at the five. This funnels opponents into on-ball dribble penetration, but the Danes are too small to provide any rim protection once the opponents get there.
Albany ranks 347th nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (58%), allowing over 36 paint PPG (10th percentile) and over 70% shooting at the rim (sixth percentile). Albany will continually get shelled at the rim, and the Danes can’t stop fouling down there (275th in free-throw rate allowed).
All that said, I suspect some serious positive regression is coming for Albany on that end of the court.
Drop-coverage defense is typically solid at denying high-quality 3-point looks, and the Danes are running everyone off the line, ranking in the top 50 nationally in 3-point rate allowed and the top 15 in Open 3 Rate allowed. Yet, opponents have shot a whopping 36% from 3, a mark bound to regress — ShotQuality projects opponents should be shooting closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.
For what it’s worth, Albany leads the conference in ShotQuality’s adjusted efficiency margin. The site projects a ton of positive regression for the Danes’ defense.
More importantly, they’re doing a decent job cleaning the defensive glass, which helps them continue to dominate the shot-volume battle.
The Danes won’t be a good defensive team, but they have a chance to improve significantly on their currently abhorrent metrics.
Unfortunately, health is a significant issue.
Guard/wing tweener Aaron Reddish is out for the season. Big man Sully Adewale, the only half-decent interior defender on the team, has missed all of the conference season with an injury.
The most significant injury is to Joshua, who’s been in and out of the lineup with a shoulder injury. His absence significantly hurts Maine’s ball handling and on-ball pressure, which would cook Albany’s shot-volume advantages.
His absence helps explain why the Danes turned the ball over 20 times and forced only 10 turnovers against Maine last Saturday. Albany looked lost at times without Joshua directing traffic and setting the table, which is partially an indictment on head coach Dwayne Killings.
Given his leadership skills on offense and pestering on-ball defensive skills, I'm starting to wonder if Joshua is Albany's most important player. The Danes' offensive rating jumps 15 points when he's on the court, and their defensive rating drops 10.
Regardless, Albany still had a decent shot at knocking off Maine without him, which sounds silly to say in a 21-point loss. The Danes abused the Bears on the boards, winning the rebounding battle 40-to-23 and the offensive rebounding battle 15-to-2. Despite the turnover differential, they still won the shot-volume battle by three, but shooting variance bit them again, as Maine shot 11-for-23 (48%) from 3 while the Danes shot 5-for-18 (28%).
The Danes need to get healthier, and Killings needs to run better offensive sets. But the Danes could be significantly undervalued in the coming weeks if Joshua gets back on the court, as they’re due for all sorts of positive regression on defense. Combine that with their surprisingly dynamic offense and absurd shot-volume margin, and Albany is a legitimate threat in the America East.
I power rate Lowell as the league’s best team by a wide margin. Albany should’ve beaten them at home, and their upcoming schedule is very manageable:
- vs. Bryant
- at Binghamton
- vs. UMBC
- vs. NJIT
- vs. Binghamton
I make the Danes a favorite in four of those five games, and they could pull off a home upset over Bryant on Thursday as three-point home pups as long as Joshua gets back on the court. Four wins in January get Albany to 5-3 in league play, while five gets them to 6-2, and they’re back in the mix.
However, I must make this abundantly clear: Do not consider backing the Danes if Joshua remains sidelined, as they can't operate their two-way scheme without him.
I’m not giving up on my 40-to-1 Albany futures and officially naming myself the Conductor Of The Dane Train.
All Aboard!
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UMBC Retrievers
I’ve been more or less impressed with UMBC so far. The Retrievers' three-game home losing streak to Saint Peter’s, Hampton and Boston University wasn’t pretty. Still, they bounced back with wins over Howard, Morgan State, Towson and American, combined with a brutal overtime loss to a good Marist squad.
Marcus Banks has looked like his usual stuff, pouring in 15 PPG on 42% 3-point shooting while scoring boatloads as an off-ball spot-up shooter (1.42 PPP, 97th percentile).
However, it’s been Bryce Johnson’s on-ball play that’s allowed Banks to move off the ball.
Johnson has been magnificent, averaging 23/4/4/1 on 59%/33%/90% shooting splits over his past five games. He now ranks second in the AmEast in scoring and seventh in assists, and he never turns the ball over (7.7% turnover rate). He’s starting to become the type of high-usage two-way guard who can control game-flow by scoring, drawing defenders and dishing, or pestering ball-handlers on the other end and getting out in transition.
He’s genuinely been the most impressive player I’ve watched in the league so far (aside from maybe Somerville).
Johnson’s been running Jim Ferry’s pace-and-space offense to a tee, although his running mates have been solid. As mentioned, Banks has been lights out as a secondary off-ball scorer. Ace Valentine is dishing out four APG as the “pure” point guard, and he’s been spectacular in transition (1.27 PPP on high volume). Josh Odunowo’s been the versatile small-ball forward he was expected to be, scoring 12 PPG on 57% shooting from the interior while amassing five boards and two stocks per game.
I tend to think of UMBC as a perimeter-oriented offense, and the Retrievers still play a guard-friendly form of basketball via attack-and-kick actions (18.9 per 100 plays, 91st percentile). But they have four or five guards who can attack off the bounce, so they do that while also pressuring the rim in transition (20 transition possessions per game, ninth nationally) and cutting off the wings (1.26 cutting PPP, 66th percentile). Combine that with Odunowo's interior scoring prowess, and the Retrievers have become a surprisingly devastating interior offense, ranking first in 2-point shooting (61%), first in offensive turnover rate (10%) and last in 3-point rate (27%).
All in all, UMBC runs a very balanced inside-out offense. It might be the best in the league.
The defensive side of the ball is more interesting.
The Retrievers are incredibly small, so it’s unsurprising that they can’t stop a nosebleed on the interior, allowing 42 paint PPG (the fourth-most nationally) on 54% 2-point shooting (267th). And they can’t rebound, allowing 12 second-chance PPG (33rd percentile).
However, Ferry has adjusted his defense, as the Retrievers are playing far more aggressively and extended on the perimeter. They’re blowing up ball screens and, compared to last season, forcing nearly two more turnovers per game at a 4% higher rate, which helps fuel their transition-reliant offense.
But, more importantly, UMBC is viciously denying 3-point opportunities. The Retrievers rank second nationally in 3-point rate allowed and have been superb on their close-outs.
Playing this aggressively and extended on defense will leave you vulnerable on the interior. But considering the Retrievers had no shot at defending the interior beforehand, they might as well lean aggressively into the areas they can protect.
The Retrievers can generate high-quality looks on offense and deny high-quality 3-point looks on defense. That's not an awful way to win basketball games, at least analytically.
Still, I’m uncertain how the strategy will work against some of the more rim-dominant AmEast squads. Binghamton posted 87 points on a 127 offensive rating against UMBC in the conference opener, including 48 paint points almost exclusively through dribble penetration, cuts and offensive rebounds. It was a little too easy for Tymu Chenery, Gavin Walsh, Chris Walker and Wes Peterson, and I can only imagine what Lowell, Bryant or Albany will do.
UMBC’s style matches up very well with the perimeter-oriented Catamounts, though. The Retrievers could be worth a wager in those head-to-head battles on Jan. 25 and March 1.
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Binghamton Bearcats
Every time they step forward, the Bearcats take two steps back.
After starting the season losing its first six D-I games, Binghamton bounced back with five straight wins. After dropping 87 on UMBC’s head in the conference opener, I thought Levell Sanders was turning the ship around, as he’s done so many times before.
Alas, the Bearcats lost their next two AmEast games, including a pathetic loss to previously D-I winless New Hampshire.
Some positive regression is coming for Binghamton, as conference opponents have shot a whopping 44% from 3 through the first three games despite the Bearcats effectively running opponents off the line.
But I’m still largely unimpressed with the defense, as the Bearcats can’t stop the dribble (.95 ball-screen PPP allowed, 14th percentile) and don’t have much rim protection behind the lackluster POA defenders.
In the preseason, I thought Binghamton would shift away from its cut-heavy, rim-reliant offense into a more spread look. But that hasn’t materialized, as the Bearcats are still among the nation’s cut-heaviest (8.1 possessions per game, 94th percentile), most-rim-reliant (27 at-the-rim FGA per game, 99th percentile) offenses behind their massive, versatile frontcourt.
Some wrinkles make Binghamton’s offense more interesting.
Ben Callahan-Gold has been among the most impressive D-II transfers at the AmEast level with his spacing and pick-and-pop ability at the four and five — he’s shooting 37% from 3 on nearly six attempts per game.
Similarly, the aforementioned big wings have been shooting the lights out. Tymu Chenery, Gavin Walsh and Chris Walker have combined to shoot 77-for-185 (42%) from deep. But I’m sure that will regress as the season progresses.
All that said, the Bearcats are good at what they do.
Chenery is a monster. He’s a big-bodied four who handles the rock (24% assist rate), obliterates the rim on cuts (1.57 cutting PPP, 91st percentile), blocks shots, rebounds everything, and gets downhill quickly while stepping outside to hit some 3s. He’s the type of guy you can build a team around.
Walsh and Walker are similar archetypes in their off-the-bounce downhill rim-running. And Nehemiah Benson is among the most athletic rim-running forwards in the league.
The Bearcats should see some shooting regression, but they also rank second in the AmEast in 2-point shooting (56%), third in offensive rebounding rate (34%) and second in free-throw rate (41%). They will leverage their wings to barrel toward the rim in the half-court and will likely be a solid, consistent, and even entertaining offense.
But while they’re versatile bullies on offense, they’re flat-footed and ineffective on defense, and I’m uncertain if all the pieces will come together in a meaningful fashion.
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NJIT Highlanders
The Highlanders are bad. But I expected one of the nation’s youngest rosters to struggle mightily through the non-can and early conference season.
Unfortunately, injuries have taken their toll. Walt Andrews, Jake Goldberg, Triston Wennersten and Malachi Arrington are all battling injuries.
The biggest bummer is Tariq Francis’ injury. The superstar point guard and defending AmEast Rookie of the Year leads the conference in PPG (18.7) and assist rate (31%) but has missed the past four games. I haven’t heard if there’s a timetable for his return.
As a result, the offense is running almost primarily through Sebastian Robinson, and the results have been predictably poor.
Robinson is experienced but has always been a lackluster two-way combo guard. He doesn’t do anything particularly well.
The Highlanders surprisingly lead the conference in defensive rebounding rate, likely thanks to 6-foot-6 forward Tim Moore’s heroic efforts. He’s the most explosive forward in the conference, as evidenced by his 81% 2-point shooting mark and his ridiculous dunk against Lowell last week.
I still think NJIT will improve mightily as the season progresses, as the Highlanders are young, athletic and led by a first-team All-League guard.
However, the Highlanders need to get healthy quickly.
Once they do, I hope we’ll see less hero-ball. Francis is great, but I’ve seen too much nonsense dribble creation, if you can even call some of the Highlander sets that. Grant Billmeier must lean even more into Francis' ball screens while leveraging Moore’s explosiveness in those sets. It’d be nice to get a modicum of shooting and spacing, but I’m not so optimistic.
I am optimistic that — if healthy — the Highlanders will continue improving and show good ATS value as the season progresses.
It’s also worth mentioning that — when healthy — the Highlanders are an unreal first-half ATS team. They have a solid top-five but negative depth, so they typically get cooked in the third quarter of games. For example, last week, they led UMBC by seven at half before losing by 23, which seems legitimately impossible.
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New Hampshire Wildcats
No notes.
The Wildcats are legitimately the nation’s worst college basketball team. They rank 360th in KenPom, and their 315th-ranked defense is regressing.
There isn’t a single thing New Hampshire does well, and injuries to veterans Trey Woodyard and Rex Sunderland have forced the ball into even more inexperienced, unproven, frankly useless hands — Jawarie Hamelin has been utterly disastrous in significant minutes, shooting 32% from the floor with a 41% turnover rate.
My favorite incoming player for the Wildcats was North Georgia transfer Giancarlo Bastianoni. After missing the season’s first 13 games for unknown reasons, he earned starts against Stonehill and Iowa, dropping 31 points and snagging 18 boards across 61 minutes. I was thrilled.
But in the second half of the conference opener against Vermont, Bastianoni fell hard on his right side and couldn’t get up alone. I recently learned he’ll miss the rest of the year with a “lower-body injury.” Brutal.
Nathan Davis repeatedly said in the offseason that he wanted to play faster, but New Hampshire is running at a nation-average pace despite ranking in the top 25 last year in adjusted tempo. The Wildcats aren’t scoring in transition (.80 PPP, 360th nationally) and are playing almost exclusively one-on-one isolation ball with abhorrent results (.61 PPP, 13th percentile).
At least the Wildcats are playing quick on defense, allowing 16 fast-break PPG, the seventh-most nationally.
They’re actually OK at preventing high-quality 3s, guarding just under 60% of opposing catch-and-shoot opportunities (62nd percentile). However, they’re still allowing a decently high volume of 3-point attempts, and none of that matters when their rim defense is literally useless.
I don’t know what the plan is.
Actually, the plan is to get the ball to Sami Pissis and get out of the way.
The JUCO transfer is a quick-twitched athletic guard dropping 13 PPG on crazy-high usage. He sees the floor OK (24% assist rate) and doesn’t turn the ball over like crazy (15% turnover rate), but he’s also uber-efficient from the field (35% shooting, 31% from 3).
That said, Sami can go off on any given night. He already has five 20-point games this season. He dropped 30 against Binghamton last Saturday and dragged the Wildcats to their first D-I win this year.
Will Pissis catch some other AmEast teams on an off-night? I can see it happening again.
But I doubt that win is foreshadowing an upswing. It’s Dire in Durham, and I wonder if the athletic director misses Bill Herrion.
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Tanner McGrath's America East Predictions & Picks
Updated Conference Power Ratings
- UMass Lowell
- Bryant
- Maine
- Vermont
- Albany
- UMBC
- Binghamton
- NJIT
- New Hampshire
Updated Conference Player of the Year Pick
- Max Brooks, UMass Lowell
Updated Conference Defensive Player of the Year Pick
- Kellen Tynes, Maine
Updated Conference Sixth Man of the Year Pick
- Christopher Mantis, Maine
Updated Conference Newcomer of the Year Pick
- Sami Pissis, New Hampshire
Updated Conference Rookie of the Year Pick
- Martin Somerville, UMass Lowell
Updated Conference Coach of the Year Pick
- Pat Duquette, UMass Lowell
Updated All-Conference First Team Picks
- G Kellen Tynes, Maine
- G Bryce Johnson, UMBC
- G TJ Hurley, Vermont
- G/F Earl Timberlake, Bryant
- G/F Rafael Pinzon, Bryant
- F Max Brooks, UMass Lowell
Updated All-Conference Second Team Picks
- G Tariq Francis, NJIT
- G Martin Somerville, UMass Lowell
- G Byron Joshua, Albany
- F Barry Evans, Bryant
- F Quinton Mincey, UMass Lowell
Updated All-Conference Third Team Picks
- G Sami Pissis, New Hampshire
- G Amar'e Marshall, Albany
- G/F A.J. Lopez, Maine
- F Tymu Chenery, Binghamton
- F Ileri Ayo-Faleye, Vermont
Updated All-Conference Honorable Mention Picks
- G Anthony McComb III, New Hampshire
- G/F Quion Burns, Maine
- F Justin Neely, Albany
- F DeMarr Langford, Albany
- F Josh Odunowo, UMBC
