The final week of the regular season and conference championship week will tell us a lot about who the contenders (and pretenders) are leading into March Madness. Marquee matchups will line the slate for the following 10 days.
As the college basketball regular season comes to an end, let’s take a look at Kalshi's odds for who will cut down the nets in San Antonio.
2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion Odds
Is It Finally Duke’s Year?
Leading the Kalshi field at 20% are the Duke Blue Devils. Freshman sensation and projected No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg is steering a stacked Duke roster into March at full speed. Jon Scheyer’s team is annihilating everyone in their path, albeit in a down year for the ACC.
Ranked first on KenPom and Haslametrics, Duke is the only team in the nation with a top-five adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom. And it’s not just Flagg (currently -300 on DraftKings to win the Wooden Award) that teams have to worry about. Sharpshooters Isaiah Evans and Kon Knueppel, rim protector Khaman Maluach and graduate transfer Sion James have been matchup nightmares for just about every team on Duke’s schedule. We should all be anxious to see how Duke will fare against a top 'dog outside the ACC.
Did Auburn Peak Too Early?
After suffering an upset at Texas A&M on Tuesday night, the Tigers slid down to the second slot on Kalshi’s odds table. Bruce Pearl’s squad has been elite for most of the season against the toughest-rated schedule in the country, according to KenPom’s metrics.
Auburn’s top-rated offense, coupled with their top-10 defensive efficiency rating, propelled them to an SEC regular season title in a year where the conference may send 13 teams to the NCAA Tournament. A veteran roster led by Johni Broome, Chad Baker-Mazara and Miles Kelly makes Auburn a formidable contender for a national championship, but there have been some lapses as of late. We will see what Auburn is really made of when it's thrown into the gauntlet in Nashville next week.
Does Defense Actually Win Championships?
Sitting at third on Kalshi are the Houston Cougars. Coach Kelvin Sampson is known for engraining a tough defensive mindset into his teams, and this year’s Houston squad has definitely taken that to heart. The Cougars grind down their opponents and dictate the pace of play with their slow, deliberate style of basketball.
According to KenPom, Houston ranks as the fifth-slowest team in all of Division 1 college basketball in adjusted tempo. Houston can certainly drag teams into the mud and come out on top in March.
A Return to Glory in Gainesville?
Todd Golden has injected life into Gator Nation unseen since the Billy Donovan days. The lethal trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin can outshoot any team in the country, and the physicality from big men Tommy Haugh and Micah Handlogten brings an edge and toughness to a Florida team that ranks third in the nation in rebounds per game.
There’s major value on the Gators right now at 9% as they can play fast and win in a shootout, or play slow and grind games out. A backcourt with a combined 13 years of experience — including Martin, who led Florida Atlantic to a Cinderella Final Four run in 2023 — works immensely in Florida’s favor.
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Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
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