After an action-packed conference championship week, there was a bit of movement in Kalshi’s market predicting the winner of this year’s Men’s National Basketball Championship.
2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion Odds
The Duke Blue Devils lead the field at 24% after conquering the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg, who left the quarterfinal game vs. Georgia Tech due to an ankle injury. Coach John Scheyer said that the plan is for Flagg to return for Duke’s opening round game on Friday, but it is unclear whether Flagg will be 100%.
Duke proved to be a dominant force even without Flagg, getting past tournament teams North Carolina and Louisville on the way to the title. The Blue Devils also don't have the toughest region in this year’s bracket. The Blue Devils seem poised for a matchup against either Alabama and Wisconsin in the Elite 8, a challenge they’ll be up for if Flagg returns to full strength.
Right behind them is the hottest team in the country, and the team everyone is talking about right now: Florida. One of the more underrated groups all year, basically every college basketball expert is picking the Gators to win it all after the Gators ran through the SEC at the conference tournament in Nashville.
If you took a blind resume test with the four No. 1 seeds, Florida’s resume would rival any in the country and would likely be the consensus for the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. The Gators have wins at Auburn and Alabama and have won six in a row against Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Alabama (twice).
Their speed, physicality and shooting will carry them through a loaded West region that also features St. John’s, Texas Tech and Maryland. Strong guard play wins in March and the Gators have the best backcourt in the country with the three-headed monster of Walter Clayton Jr. (First Team All-American), Will Richard and Alijah Martin.
The Auburn Tigers slid down to the third spot at just 15% after a rough couple of weeks. They lost their final two games of the season and were bounced from the SEC Tournament by Tennessee in the semifinal. This is certainly not the momentum Bruce Pearl was looking for going into the tournament, and the committee did not give them an easy draw at all.
The South region is filled with very solid teams. In the second round, Auburn would face the winner of Louisville/Creighton. Big Ten Champions Michigan, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Iowa State and Marquette make up the remaining contenders for the regional title. It will not be easy going as the Tigers look to avenge their first round exit from last year.
Right behind Auburn is Houston, who can absolutely contend for a championship. The Cougars are incredibly efficient, boasting a top offensive attack led by guards Milos Uzan and LJ Cryer, while limiting opponents' possessions with a bottom-five adjusted tempo rating. The status of J’Wan Roberts is up in the air, but their “next man up” mentality and tenacity on the offensive glass will make them a tough out once again.
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