Nebraska vs Iowa Odds, Pick
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 166.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 166.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
In a week where almost every top team in the country has lost, the Nebraska Cornhuskers pulled off the biggest shocker by upsetting the top ranked Purdue Boilermakers 88-72.
Now, Nebraska will travel to Iowa City to face the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa recently defeated Rutgers last weekend and will look to win its second conference game on Friday. Will the Huskers build off of their upset win over the Boilermakers, or will they get caught in a flat spot by the Hawkeyes?
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Huskers will be a popular bet on Friday evening as many casual bettors will invest in the trendiest team on the board.
Fred Hoiberg has done a terrific coaching job with his team as they are on their way to earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Besides this clear trappy spot, there are a few areas of concern for the Huskers in this game.
Despite being a decent defensive squad, the Huskers do not force turnovers as their defense is 194th in Turnover Rate and 246th in Block Rate.
These stats are significant because the Hawkeyes do a great job of protecting the basketball with the ninth-lowest Turnover Rate in the nation while playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the country. This will wear down the Huskers defense as the Hawkeyes will likely control the tempo at home.
The Huskers perimeter defense should hold up because the Hawkeyes are only 313th in 3-point attempts per game. However, the fast tempo will not allow the Huskers to set up properly in the halfcourt.
Although this is not as strong of a Hawkeyes team, Carver Hawkeye Arena is still a nightmare for opposing teams. Let's not forget that these teams do not like one another, as this is one of the sport's biggest rivalries.
Overall, I trust the Huskers offense, which ranks 30th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, to have an edge over the Hawkeyes defense that ranks outside the top 115 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Protecting the basketball and taking advantage of the weak Hawkeyes perimeter defense will be critical.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery must have realized that he does not have the talent of years past by now. Consequently, Iowa doesn't take many 3-pointers this season as most of its offense has been generated through the free-throw line and on the interior.
The Iowa frontcourt of Owen Freeman, Payton Sandfort and Ben Krikke has been sensational to start the year. Notably, Freeman is a star on the rise in the Big Ten.
These three are all shooting roughly 60% from inside the arc, which is why the offense has remained consistent. The trio will be battled tested against a tough Huskers interior defense, but I believe in this group to get the job done.
This frontcourt has struggled to generate second-scoring chances, but luckily for them, the Huskers have struggled to box out as Nebraska is 163rd in Offensive Rebound Rate Allowed on defense.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes need to slow down the Huskers' 3-point attack. They do not allow many attempts beyond the arc on defense, which will help their cause in a close game.
The defense should hold strong inside, but the difference in this game is on the perimeter. If the Huskers hit 3s consistently, the Hawkeyes will get blown out of the gym.
Nebraska vs. Iowa
Betting Pick & Prediction
With only a few games on Friday evening, this is my favorite bet on the entire slate. I would not be surprised to see the Huskers struggle in a flat spot following their massive upset against Purdue.
The home Iowa crowd should provide extra juice since this is a rivalry game, and consequently, this is a classic situational smash spot to take the short home underdog.
Despite how poorly the offense has looked this season, the Hawkeyes may have found something with their frontcourt trio. I am not concerned about the Huskers' interior defense since Iowa will put them out of sorts with their fast tempo.
Notably, the Huskers are due for some regression, according to ShotQuality. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have been unlucky and could cash in on some positive regression themselves.
Crazy things tend to happen in Iowa City, and it is safe to assume that a wild game is on deck. I love the Hawkeyes at home here on the moneyline as my best bet, and I will probably take the over as well.
