#7 Nevada vs. #10 Florida NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Nevada -2
- Over/Under: 132.5
- Date: Thursday, March 21
- Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Des Moines, Iowa
- TV: TNT
Nevada's Statistical Profile
After its run to the Elite Eight in last year’s NCAA Tournament, Nevada entered the season as the seventh-ranked team in the nation. A 6-0 start brought the Wolfpack to No. 5, but an unimpressive strength of schedule prevented them from holding such a high ranking despite their undefeated streak continuing to 12 games.
Being favored in every one of its games, Nevada didn’t really have the opportunity to grab a statement win, even though the Wolfpack ultimately ended up with 28 regular season victories, tied for second in the country.
As for its losses, Nevada’s first was also its most embarrassing. The Wolfpack got trounced by New Mexico on the Lobos’ home court, 85-58, despite being 14-point favorites. They’d only lose twice more on the season, but with the second coming to Utah State, they ended up tied with the Aggies atop the Mountain West regular season standings.
Nevada missed out on the tournament from 2008 to 2016, but has now made the Big Dance in three consecutive years. — Danny Donahue
- Record: 29-4
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 25
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 20
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 34
- Tempo Rank: 89
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Florida's Statistical Profile
On the surface, the Gators' 19-15 record (9-9 conference) may not wow you. But a closer look at their body of work (and analytics) tells a different story. Florida beat LSU twice and barely lost to Auburn (65-62) in the SEC semifinals.
The Gators rate 28th in adjusted efficiency, including 66th in offense and an eye-popping 13th in defensive efficiency. Florida plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country (344th in tempo).
They only have one double-digit scorer (KeVaugh Allen 12.1 PPG), but feature five others between 7.9 and 9.6 PPG. The Gators only went 11-18 ATS during the season, but could be an overlooked and undervalued team to bet on and make a deep run as they are flying under the radar.
Keep in mind, unders went 20-9 (69%) this season when Florida took the court. — Josh Appelbaum
- Record: 19-15
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 28
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 66
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
- Tempo Rank: 344
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Sean Koerner's Nevada-Florida Projections
Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.
- Spread: Nevada -1.5
- Total: 132.5
- Proj Score: Nevada 67 | Florida 65.5
- Win Probability: Nevada 53.1% | Florida 46.9%
Nevada-Florida Instant Bracket, Betting Picks
Nevada (29-4) has a gaudy record but is only 1-1 against Quadrant I opponents. Florida (19-15) has played its best basketball at the end of the year, scoring a big conference tournament upset win over LSU. The Gators played 16 Quadrant I games as a byproduct of playing in the SEC.
The Wolf Pack have the superior offense, ranking 27th in the country in 2P%, but they will need to stay efficient from beyond the arc, especially leading scorer Caleb Martin (19.3 ppg), who has been inconsistent this season at 34%.
Early ATS lean: Florida
Early bracket pick: Florida — Randle
