Nevada vs Boise State Pick & Prediction
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
The Mountain West regular-season championship could be one step closer to being decided Tuesday. The Boise State Broncos can set up a potential regular-season title game Saturday against San Diego State if they defeat the visiting Nevada Wolf Pack.
Boise State currently holds a one-game lead over Nevada and will win the title with a victory if San Diego State loses to UNLV.
Here's a Nevada vs Boise State pick and prediction for Tuesday.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada has been impressive in the Mountain West this season, ranking in the top 50 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
However, the Wolf Pack looked sluggish in their recent game against Fresno State after an emotional buzzer-beater win over Colorado State. While they are a well-rounded team, this may not be a good matchup for them since they could experience negative shooting regression on both ends of the floor.
Despite being a top-10 team in 3-point percentage, Nevada does not take many shots from distance as a team. Metrics suggest the Wolf Pack could struggle from deep, especially against a strong perimeter-defending team like the Broncos.
While it's interesting to see the market open up these Mountain West conference spreads, I believe Boise State is the better team in this matchup. Though the Wolf Pack could keep it close with their defense, I think the Broncos' defense will ultimately be the deciding factor in the game.
Boise State Broncos
Although it may look promising on paper for the Wolf Pack offense, I'm not convinced. The Broncos have consistently shown they deserve to be at the top of the Mountain West regular-season standings, despite having a shallow team.
Boise State has been incredibly balanced, ranking in the top 45 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Broncos' perimeter defense is particularly noteworthy, placing 15th for opposing 3-point percentage, making them one of the most elite perimeter-defending teams in the country.
Rebounding will be a major factor in this one, with the Broncos being a top-10 defensive rebounding team and the Wolf Pack not being great at offensive rebounding. Boise State will eliminate any chances for Nevada to grab second opportunities on the glass and its perimeter defense will match well with Nevada's 3-point shooting regression.
However, the Broncos are not great at defending inside the arc, which could be a concern given that the Wolf Pack don't take many 3s. Overall, Boise State will need to hit a lot of 3s to win comfortably, but I have faith in its shooting.
I expect the Wolf Pack to find some success scoring inside, but I still think it's a good matchup for Boise State to secure the regular-season title in the Mountain West.
Nevada vs. Boise State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Recently, betting against the home team in the Mountain West has been unwise. The market typically opens up with inflated spreads, but this time it seems spot on.
The Broncos are favored and are the superior team. Although the metrics suggest the Wolf Pack are the better 3-point shooting team, they will face negative regression, making the Broncos ultimately the better offensive team.
While Nevada can score inside, it is unlikely, and Boise State forward Tyson Degenhart is one of the best players in the entire conference. I have faith Degenhart will be the most talented and efficient player on the floor, which is always an advantage.
The Broncos have the regular-season title in their sights, and I like them at home to take care of business.
