Nevada vs San Diego State Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Late-night Mountain West showdowns usually live up to the billing, and there's a huge game at the Viejas Center on Wednesday when the San Diego State Aztecs host the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Nevada lost its last game against Boise State over the weekend, and San Diego State similarly fell short in The Pit against New Mexico. Both teams will enter this game energetic and ready for a potentially huge victory.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada's offense runs through a pair of senior guards, Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear. Blackshear affects the game in many ways, averaging 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists while locking down the opposing team's top perimeter player every game. The 6-foot-6 point guard enjoys operating in the midrange/post, as his size and strength overwhelm smaller opponents like the Aztecs.
While Blackshear isn't a shooter, Lucas's elite shooting prowess stretches out the defense. He is Nevada's leading scorer and is shooting 38% from 3 this year.
The one thing Nevada does better than anyone in the Mountain West is limit turnovers. The Wolf Pack only give the ball away on 13.7% of possessions, which ranks 13th nationally in Offensive Turnover Rate. That's a major advantage in most games since Nevada infrequently loses the turnover battle.
Big men Nick Davidson and KJ Hymes will prove crucial against SDSU's talented frontcourt. Hymes regularly gets into foul trouble, so he'll need to stay on the court against SDSU.
This battle-tested Nevada squad holds wins over No. 19 TCU, Georgia Tech and Washington. Consequently, the rowdy environment at Viejas won't scare the unflappable Pack.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State made the national title game a season ago and is an excellent team again led by its defense under coach Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs rank 23rd in KenPom, as they are 51st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 25th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Aztecs struggled at times early, but a huge road victory over Gonzaga in Spokane vaulted a seven-game winning streak, which New Mexico snapped on Saturday.
Star forward Jaedon LeDee is the fulcrum of San Diego State's offensive success as he averages 21.6 points and 8.6 boards per contest. LeDee is strong and dominates the paint, and he is building an undeniable case for Mountain West Player of the Year.
USC transfer Reese Waters has developed into a perfect perimeter scoring replacement for the departed Matt Bradley, who also transferred in from the Pac-12. Beyond Waters, I have some legitimate concerns about the Aztecs backcourt led by Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell.
Both guards average eight points, shoot 40% or worse from the floor and shoot worse than 30% from deep. If one — particularly Trammell — steps up, San Diego State's offense becomes more threatening than it is currently. However, Trammell turning things around against the Wolf Pack is a tall task.
Nevada vs. San Diego State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Nevada's size advantage really concerns me for San Diego State's as both Butler and Trammell have struggled against big guards. Nevada has some major positional advantages, and neither team scores enough to pull away.
I'm expecting a competitive game going into the final possession or two, so I'll take the points here with the road dogs.
Pick: Nevada +5.5 (Play to +5)
