The New Hampshire Wildcats take on the Maine Black Bears in Orono, Maine. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Maine is favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here are my New Hampshire vs. Maine predictions and college basketball picks for January 30, 2025.
New Hampshire vs Maine Prediction
My Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 137)
My New Hampshire vs Maine best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Hampshire vs Maine Odds
| New Hampshire Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -112 | 138.5 -112 / -108 | +500 |
| Maine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -108 | 138.5 -112 / -108 | -700 |
- New Hampshire vs Maine spread: Maine -13
- New Hampshire vs Maine over/under: 138.5 points
- New Hampshire vs Maine moneyline: Maine -700, New Hampshire +500
- New Hampshire vs Maine best bet: Under 138.5 (Play to 137)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm projecting a lower-scoring rock fight and banking on the under.
My Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 137)
New Hampshire vs Maine College Basketball Betting Preview
New Hampshire Basketball
Unfortunately, fading Maine would involve backing New Hampshire in a nightmare schematic matchup.
The Wildcats don’t run offense. They play almost exclusively isolation hero ball with Sami Pissis and Anthony McComb III. They’re shooting 47% from inside the arc (last in the America East, per KenPom), so they’re forced to force up 3s at the league’s highest rate (43%, per KenPom).
Pissis has been incredible this year, willing the Wildcats to two unlikely league wins over Binghamton and New Hampshire. The quick-twitched, high-motor guard has already recorded two 30-point games in league play.
But Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton are two of the league’s more active, aggressive perimeter point-of-attack defenders in the America East. While Maine hasn’t graded out well in isolation defense, I have a tough time imagining Pissis and McComb finding easy buckets against the swarming Black Bear guards.
Also, Maine has been mixing in more 2-3 zone looks this year, and it’s been working well (.79 PPP allowed, 87th percentile, per Synergy).
Meanwhile, New Hampshire is among the nation’s worst zone offenses (.72 PPP, third percentile, per Synergy), as the Wildcats aren't built to crack zone coverage — they’re too guard-reliant and have no playmaking big men.
If Chris Markwood goes zone early and often, New Hampshire might be cooked.
Maine Basketball
Situationally, Thursday is a good letdown spot for a Black Bears squad that capped off five consecutive wins with a miracle overtime road victory over UMass Lowell last Saturday.
They’re also due for more general shooting regression.
Maine’s offense looks transformed this season. Just as I hoped, wings AJ Lopez and Quion Burns have improved immensely, and the addition of sharpshooter Christopher Mantis has paid immediate dividends.
The added spacing and shooting on the court have opened up Markwood’s ball-screen motion offense, and point guard Tynes has evolved into an elite facilitator (five assists per game at a 28% rate).
That said, the Bears can’t and won’t continue shooting 43% from 3 forever. ShotQuality projects that, based on the “quality” of their attempts, they should shoot closer to 34%, which seems more in line with what we should expect.
Look, Clayton didn’t become a 38% 3-point shooter overnight after hitting 28% through his first two seasons.
Once shots stop falling, those wide-open lanes that Tynes has been cruising through will start to clog up, and the offense could stutter quickly. The last time Maine shot under 30% from 3 in a game, the Bears put up 55 points in a 26-point blowout loss to Bryant.
Can New Hampshire force some of that regression? Maybe.
The Wildcats are a mess on both sides of the ball, but they’ve done an OK job of denying 3-point opportunities, ranking third in the America East in low-quality 3s allowed (per ShotQuality).
Of greater importance, I've been surprisingly impressed with New Hampshire's ball-screen coverage, especially in conference play (17 ball-screen points per game allowed, first in the conference, per Synergy). That'll be key against the guard-friendly Maine offense.
New Hampshire vs. Maine Betting Analysis
New Hampshire played very fast last season, ranking in the top 25 nationally in adjusted tempo (per KenPom). In the offseason, head coach Nathan Davis told me he expected to push the pace even more with more ball-handlers.
The injuries to versatile wings Rex Sunderland and Trey Woodyard haven’t helped, but the Wildcats have slowed considerably this season. They rank sixth in the America East in adjusted tempo and 193rd nationally.
They’ve worked longer into the shot clock this year (19-second average offensive possession length, third-longest in the America East, per KenPom) and seldom get out in transition (nine possessions per game, 29th percentile, per Synergy).
Maine will often leverage the quick hands of Tynes and Clayton (combined five steals per game) to generate turnovers and earn easy run-out buckets.
But on the whole, the Black Bears tend to be a slower-paced team, as their swarming defense forces opponents to work deep into the shot clock (18-second average defensive possession length, 292nd nationally, per KenPom).
Between Maine's looming shooting regression, New Hampshire's woeful zone offense and the projected down-tempo pace, I'm banking on an AmEast rock fight in Orono.
