The New Hampshire Wildcats will play the UConn Huskies in Hartford, Connecticut on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FS2.
In this matchup, the Huskies are favored by 35.5 points on the spread with a 151.5-point over/under.
Here are my New Hampshire vs UConn predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday.
New Hampshire vs UConn Prediction
My Pick: UConn -35.5
My New Hampshire vs UConn best bet is on the Huskies spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Hampshire vs UConn Odds
| New Hampshire Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+38 -110 | 152 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-38 -110 | 152 -110o / -110u | OFF |
- New Hampshire vs UConn spread: UConn -38
- New Hampshire vs UConn over/under: 152 points
- New Hampshire vs UConn best bet: UConn -35.5
New Hampshire vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
I still have long-term questions about the Huskies, but I was mostly impressed with their opening-night victory over Sacred Heart.
It was shocking to see Aidan Mahaney put up zero points on three shots from the field, but I’m sure his time will come.
It looks like Liam McNeeley is the real deal (18 points on 6-for-11 shooting with 10 boards). His game looks smooth and effortless — he should play well within Dan Hurley’s pattern-motion offense.
Alex Karaban pieced together a shockingly good all-around performance, pouring in 20 points on 5-for-7 shooting from deep with seven assists, seven blocks and six rebounds.
Most importantly, it seems like this roster will execute Dan Hurley’s plug-and-play offense just fine.
The Huskies run a complex, variable, set-play-based motion offense that heavily utilizes off-ball movements (cutting, off-ball screening, et cetera) to generate rim runs and open jumpers.
Against Sacred Heart, UConn generated 21 points on 12 cutting and off-ball screening actions (1.9 PPP) while canning 13 of 31 triples (42%).
The more interesting UConn development is how Coach Hurley adjusted the defense without Donovan Clingan.
He ran a more conservative, passive drop-coverage defense last season with Cling Kong patrolling the paint. But with the more mobile, athletic Samson Johnson at the five, Hurley experimented with some ball-screen blitzes on Wednesday, and it was surprisingly successful.
Sacred Heart – which features two excellent low-major guards – scored 16 points on 21 ball screens, suitable for an OK .76 PPP. However, Hurley blitzed 14 of those, holding the Pioneers to eight points (.57 PPP) with four steals on those sets.
Of more significance to Saturday’s upcoming matchup, the Huskies held firm in transition and at the rim. Sacred Heart – a half-decent up-tempo rim-running squad – managed six points on 15 transition possessions (.4 PPP) and shot 4-for-15 (26%) at the rim.
Again, Karaban had seven blocks, but Johnson and backup center Tarris Reed Jr. combined for another four.
While it was only Sacred Heart, Wednesday was an encouraging performance for UConn’s two-way play in the post-Clingan world.
New Hampshire runs a similar offense to Sacred Heart. Both run transition-heavy attacks that space the floor wide to create driving lanes for layups or kick-outs — I affectionately call this the "pace-and-space" offense.
I like forward Trey Woodyard, and JUCO transfer point guard Sami Pissis might become one of the more impactful America East newcomers after dropping 20/6/2 against UMass.
But I actually think Sacred Heart is the more dangerous pace-and-space offense. Tanner Thomas is a stud. D-II transfer point guard Aidan Carpenter is a double-digit scorer. Amiri Stewart is a potential breakout candidate in the MAAC. All three can drive, dish and shoot over 35% from deep.
New Hampshire doesn't have enough shooting, and the Wildcats lost plenty of scoring and playmaking in the offseason (Clarence Daniels, Ahmad Robinson).
They will push the pace in the open court and generate a high Rim-and-3 rate. Still, they'll likely be even less efficient than last year, when they generated 1.04 transition PPP (42nd percentile) while shooting 56% at the rim (seventh percentile) and 32% from deep (287th nationally).
For example, the Wildcats scored 14 points on 22 transition opportunities (.63 PPP) and shot 17-for-36 in the paint (47%) against UMass on Monday.
I also don’t see the Wildcats making any strides on the defensive end. They ran well with opposing 3-point shooting early last season but ultimately allowed too many quality spot-up opportunities, ranking 214th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (44%).
Woodyard and former frontcourt mate Jaxson Baker were among the worst post defenders in the mid-majors, and New Hampshire’s interior defense was dreadful last season. While the Wildcats added size from the portal, none of the incoming big men profile as solid defensive anchors.
Pairing an inefficient up-tempo offense with a defense that allows an endless stream of high-quality Rim-and-3 attempts is not a recipe for success — I project New Hampshire as the America East's worst team — and it will lead to devastating blowouts when playing up in class.
For example, the Minutemen generated 35 3s against New Hampshire and canned 12 (35%). They also shot 26-for-30 at the rim (87%) and posted a laughable 25-to-8 assist-to-turnover ratio in a 103-74 victory.
How do you think the Wildcats will fair against UConn?
My guess is not good.
Hurley’s pattern-motion offense is designed to create an endless stream of high-quality rim-and-3 secondary looks. Last season, UConn ranked 45th nationally in Rim-and-3 rate, 34th in Open 3 Rate and fifth in assist rate.
The Huskies should obliterate New Hampshire’s lifeless, hapless defense on Saturday. The Wildcats can’t stop any secondary actions, much less the most complex playbook in college basketball.
Meanwhile, UConn's defense shut down a better-coached, more well-rounded pace-and-space offense on Wednesday. I expect the Huskies will have less-than-zero issues overwhelming New Hampshire's inefficient attack.
But New Hampshire will keep coming — the Wildcats rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted tempo. The only way to compete when you’re overmatched is to grind the game to a halt and limit possessions.
Coach Nathan Davis will do the opposite, creating more possessions and extenuating the differential in net efficiency.
The Wildcats lost by 30 to UMass on Monday.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost by 50 on Saturday.
Pick: UConn -35.5 (Play to -38)
