The New Mexico Lobos take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins, CO. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
New Mexico is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 152 points.
Here are my New Mexico vs. Colorado State predictions and college basketball picks for December 28, 2024.
New Mexico vs Colorado State Prediction
My Pick: Colorado State +1.5 (Play to PK)
My New Mexico vs Colorado State best bet is on the Rams spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico vs Colorado State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 152 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 152 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- New Mexico vs Colorado State spread: New Mexico -1
- New Mexico vs Colorado State over/under: 152 points
- New Mexico vs Colorado State moneyline: New Mexico -115, Colorado State -105
- New Mexico vs Colorado State best bet: Colorado State +1.5 (Play to PK)
Spread
I'm taking the Rams on the spread to a pick'em.
Moneyline
I think Colorado State wins this game.
Over/Under
I'm avoiding the total.
My Pick: Colorado State +1.5 (Play to PK)
New Mexico vs Colorado State College Basketball Betting Preview
New Mexico Basketball
This is an important matchup for the Lobos, even though it's just the beginning of conference play. They have a 9-3 record, and they could use a big conference road win to kickstart their chances at making some noise in the Mountain West.
The Lobos do a good job of protecting the basketball, which is a key factor in this matchup.
Is there an ability to get to the free throw line frequently? I say this because the Rams' defense often fouls, allowing chances to earn free points.
The problem with the Lobos' ability to get to the free throw line is that they only shoot 66% from the charity stripe. They've been a decent offense from beyond the arc (35% from deep), but they've struggled to score on the interior, which is the strength of the Rams' defense.
The Rams have struggled to defend the 3-point shot, but given that they don't allow many attempts, I could see some better fortune in that area moving forward for the defense.
The Lobos have the luxury of having the best player on the floor in guard Donovan Dent, who's shooting 44% from deep this season.
Defensively, the Rams will be able to take advantage of the fact that the Lobos don't defend the 3-point shot well. The Lobos have allowed their opponents to shoot 38% from deep so far, which is one of the worst percentages in the country.
The Lobos are excellent at forcing turnovers on defense, but the Rams are pretty consistent with protecting the basketball.
There aren't a lot of areas on the floor that I feel the Lobos will be able to take advantage of, but I will say that they'll have the much lengthier team.
Neither of these teams is relatively deep, so I don't think a thin bench will play a factor here.
The Rams are a terrible offensive rebounding team, which should help the Lobos from allowing a lot of second chances.
I’m not sure I can lay the points on the road with the Lobos, especially given that they’ve struggled from the free throw line, which typically plays a massive factor in whether or not a favorite covers a spread in a close game.
Colorado State Basketball
The Rams have their hands full on Saturday, but it’s not because of forward Nique Clifford. Clifford is the most crucial player for the Rams, but he'll need a lot of help from his supporting cast if the team wants to pick up a home victory.
The Rams enter this matchup top-135 in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. Notably, on offense, they’ve done a good job of limiting the turnovers, and they’ve been an excellent team scoring inside.
The biggest problem for the Rams has been their poor shooting from deep (31%). Because of this, I think they’ll be able to cash in on some favorable shooting fortune, especially since the Lobos are prone to the triple.
The Rams are a 76% free-throw shooting team, which is suitable for top-60 in the nation. The problem is that they don't go to the foul line often.
But the Lobos are very aggressive on defense and foul far too often, which leads me to believe that the Rams will get more opportunities at the line than many presume.
I think the Rams' offense could keep up against the Lobos' defense, capitalizing at the free throw line and on the interior. Given the soft matchup, it'll be a bonus if their 3-point shooting gets going.
Defensively, I like what the Rams do for the most part, but they’ve struggled defending the 3. When breaking down the metrics, it seems like the winner of this game will be the team that defends the best from deep.
The Rams don't give up many opportunities from deep, so I think there's a reason to believe their defense will improve in that area. I love their interior defense, as they're only allowing their opponents to shoot 46% from inside the arc.
They get a bit aggressive sometimes, leading them to foul their opponents more often than they would like. But the Lobos aren't a good free throw shooting team, so I don't think that will correlate to many bonus points for New Mexico.
New Mexico vs. Colorado State Betting Analysis
The Rams are a +1 underdog at home, which is spot on with KenPom. Typically, I love following the market in these situations, as I think the oddsmakers see precisely what I described above.
The Rams should be able to score consistently inside, and I think the undisciplined Lobos defense will get them into trouble here.
Not only that, but the Lobos will also suffer from their poor free throw shooting in what should be a close game. The Rams aren't the best 3-point shooting team, but considering they take a decent amount of triples per game, I envision optimistic shooting fortunate.
The Lobos have the best player on the floor in Dent, but he’s going to need help. The Lobos must be the better interior-scoring team and be strong on the perimeter defensively to survive on the road.
I trust the Rams' defense, and I like the multiple areas they could exploit, which should lead them to a successful home conference victory on Saturday afternoon.
