The New Mexico Lobos take on the Michigan State Spartans in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 8:40 p.m. ET on TNT.
Michigan State is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -340. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here are my New Mexico vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 23, 2025.
New Mexico vs Michigan State Odds, Lines
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -305 |
- New Mexico vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -7
- New Mexico vs Michigan State over/under: 148.5 points
- New Mexico vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -305, New Mexico +245
- New Mexico vs Michigan State best bet: PASS | Lean Michigan State ATS
My New Mexico vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico vs Michigan State Betting Preview
Eventually, somebody will hit a 3 against Michigan State.
The Spartans play relatively compact on defense, allowing a high 3-point rate (41%, 261st nationally, per KenPom), yet conference opponents hit just 26% of triples. Bryant shot just 5-for-24 (21%) in Sparty’s first-round win.
This can’t be sustainable. The question is: Can the Lobos force any of that looming regression?
I don’t think so.
New Mexico runs a rim-reliant offense, leveraging Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph in dribble creation, post-up sets and transition run-outs.
It’ll be tough to run that offense against Michigan State. While Sparty doesn’t grade out well in straight-up ball-screen coverage and post-up defense, Tom Izzo-led teams are always good in transition denial, and this year’s team is elite at rim denial.
On the other end of the court, I question if Michigan State can handle New Mexico’s hard-hedging switching on-ball pressure.
Sparty hasn’t been a good press offense this year (.84 PPP, 29th percentile, per Synergy), and they’re far from a good shooting team, which is sometimes necessary against a Lobos team that forces the ball out of the primary creator’s hands and into weak-side catch-and-shoot opportunities.
That said, Jase Richardson’s ascension into a legit on-ball alpha shot-creating guard changes the press equation. Sparty has better guard play now than at any point this season, and that's huge against an aggressive switching defense.
Plus, Sparty is still very efficient in roll creation (1.20 PPP, 90th percentile behind Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, Szymon Zapala and Coen Carr, per Synergy), which is key against hedging defenses that will often send two to the ball.
Finally, some positive shooting regression has come for the Spartans, as they’ve shot a respectable and consistent 38% from deep over the past five games.
Altogether, I’m inclined to believe Michigan State has the two-way play to pull this one out, and I do lean toward Sparty against the number.
That said, seven points is too many for me to lay when I don’t entirely trust the Spartans’ offense.
It’s also worth mentioning that New Mexico is a super strong two-way rebounding team, and Sparty relies heavily on glass dominance to win games.
Hanging on the boards could go a long way toward the Lobos hanging in this game.
Pick: Michigan State ATS
