The New Mexico Lobos take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, CA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on FS1.
San Diego State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -142. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for February 25, 2025.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Prediction
My Pick: New Mexico +2.5 (Play to +1)
My New Mexico vs San Diego State best bet is on the Lobos spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 142.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 142.5 -110 / -110 | -142 |
- New Mexico vs San Diego State spread: San Diego State -2.5
- New Mexico vs San Diego State over/under: 142.5 points
- New Mexico vs San Diego State moneyline: San Diego State -142, New Mexico +120
- New Mexico vs San Diego State best bet: New Mexico +2.5 (Play to +1)
Spread
I'm taking the Lobos on the spread.
Moneyline
New Mexico should win this game straight up.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: New Mexico +2.5 (Play to +1)
New Mexico vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Preview
The Mountain West earned a reputation as a paper tiger in March. During a three-year tournament run from 2019 to 2022, collectively the MWC went 0-8 in the Big Dance.
Then San Diego State flipped the narrative by making a run all the way to the national title game in 2023 and backing it up with a Sweet 16 appearance last spring.
But now it’s time for a passing of the torch, as New Mexico is ready to stake its claim as the bully of the MWC.
Richard Pitino’s Lobos won 26 games last season before suffering a quick exit in the NCAA Tournament. Then the portal opened and two of Pitino’s best players traded in Albuquerque for greener pastures (read: money).
Jamal Mashburn Jr. headed to Philly to play for Temple and head coach Adam Fisher, and JT Toppin made the leap from the mid-major ranks to the big-time when he signed with Texas Tech.
If you just followed Mashburn and Toppin this season, you’d feel bad for New Mexico. Mashburn leads the AAC in scoring with 22 points per game, the third-highest average in America. And Toppin has been an unstoppable force in Big 12 play. The sophomore is one of three major college basketball players averaging over 17 points and nine rebounds per game.
Knowing that, it stands to reason that New Mexico is in a rebuild without those two borderline Player of the Year candidates in the AAC and Big 12, right? Somehow the Lobos are even better this season.
New Mexico’s resume is hard to ignore given its impressive non-conference victories over UCLA, USC and VCU, and its season sweep of Utah State.
Pitino’s team plays up-tempo (fourth) without being sloppy with the basketball, which is a rare combination. The Lobos keep teams off the offensive glass and always seem to win the turnover margin (t-22nd).
Donovan Dent, in his first year of full-time point guard duty, is largely responsible for the Lobos' efficiency on the offensive end. He can score (19.6 PPG), facilitate (6.5 APG) and handle on-ball pressure despite a high usage rate (2.9 TOs per game).
The Lobos are second to none in transition, pouring in over 17 fast-break points per game (first), and Dent is the main driver of those easy buckets.
Dent makes them a fun watch, but it’s Nelly Junior Joseph who makes them a tough out. The imposing senior has realized his full potential out in the desert. He’s a double-double machine (13) and a defensive eraser wrapped into one. He averages 2.8 “stocks” per game, which is the second-best mark in the Mountain West Conference.
In their first meeting with the Aztecs, Joseph was a non-factor, yet the Lobos still won going away by forcing 14 turnovers and gobbling up 18 offensive rebounds.
While I’ve been impressed with the Lobos, particularly during their dismantling of San Diego State last month, this play is predicated more on the Aztecs’ deficiencies than the Lobos’ strengths.
Brian Dutcher is an absolute tactician as a coach, but he can’t coax better shooting out of his players. San Diego State is 250th in 3-point accuracy, and it doesn’t have the kind of dribble-drive playmakers to stabilize its scoring by consistently getting to the line (17.7 FTA, 259th).
Nick Boyd, the Aztecs’ best option offensively, has been neutralized by the league’s top teams. In his three games against Utah State and New Mexico, he’s shot just 9-for-30 from the field.
San Diego State has lost its bite at home (4-8 ATS), and that trend will continue on Tuesday night.
