It’s March Madness and everyone is focused on the NCAA Tournament, but don’t forget about the National Invitational Tournament (NIT). The NIT might be the consolation bracket for teams that did not receive a berth to the Big Dance, but that doesn't mean bettors can't make money off this second-tier tournament.
The public is focused on filling out their brackets, which means sharp bettors are primarily wagering on these often-overlooked NIT games. Since fading the public isn’t an option, bettors should follow the line movement.
According to Bet Labs, teams that see the line move in their direction (-3 to -4 or +6 to +5.5) have gone 201-173-7 (53.7%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005. The optimal situation is when a squad becomes a bigger favorite:
When teams have become bigger favorites (at least a 0.5-point line move), they have gone 106-87-3 (54.9%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor wagering on the favorites has returned a profit of $1,385. This system has been profitable in nine of the past 14 seasons.
There are two First Four games tonight, but if you are looking for more action follow this betting strategy with three matches for Tuesday.
- NC State (-9) vs. Hofstra (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
- Memphis (-6.5) vs. San Diego (8 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
- Providence (-6) vs. Arkansas (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
