The NJIT Highlanders take on the Maine Black Bears in Orono, Maine. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Maine is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 129 points.
Here are my NJIT vs. Maine predictions and college basketball picks for February 6, 2025.
NJIT vs Maine Prediction
My Pick: Under 129
My NJIT vs Maine best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
NJIT vs Maine Odds
| NJIT Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 129 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| Maine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 129 -110 / -110 | -700 |
- NJIT vs Maine spread: Maine -12.5
- NJIT vs Maine over/under: 129 points
- NJIT vs Maine moneyline: Maine -700, NJIT +500
- NJIT vs Maine best bet: Under 129
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm banking on the under in an expected rock fight.
My Pick: Under 129
NJIT vs Maine College Basketball Betting Preview
I’ve been betting plenty of Black Bear unders recently, mainly because they combine a tremendous defense with an overvalued offense based on way-too-hot 3-point shooting (41% in conference play, per KenPom).
The Bears have shot a more reasonable 38% from 3 over their past five games, and four have stayed well under the closing total.
That includes the first head-to-head meeting with NJIT, which featured 101 points on 61 possessions after the total closed at 131.
Yes, that game was on “education day” and tipped at 11 a.m., likely contributing to the sluggish scoring output.
But the schematic matchup remains the same: two guard-friendly, ball-screen-centric offenses against two excellent perimeter ball-screen coverage defenses.
Maine has always been a swarming point-of-attack ball-screen coverage unit behind the league’s best defensive backcourt (Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton).
However, NJIT has surprisingly become a similarly effective unit, with Tariq Francis and Sebastian Robinson taking colossal strides as point-of-attack defenders.
As a result, these two rank first and second, respectively, in the AmEast in pick-and-roll points per game allowed (per Synergy). So, it’s unsurprising that in the first matchup, they combined for 32 points on 48 ball screens, suitable for a horrendous .67 PPP.
I expect more of the same on Saturday.
Additionally, I don’t trust NJIT against Chris Markwood’s aggressive 2-3 pressing zone, which he'll sprinkle in. The Highlanders are a horrendous zone offense (.79 PPP, ninth percentile, per Synergy) and the literal worst press offense in the country (.60 PPP, per Synergy).
An offense built around two dribble-heavy guards without much frontcourt playmaking isn’t built to break down zone coverages.
Unsurprisingly, they managed only 18 points in 23 possessions against Maine’s zone in the first head-to-head meeting (.78 PPP, per Synergy).
And, to stress this point one more time, I’m still banking on further negative shooting regression for the Black Bears. I don’t think they’re a 40% 3-point shooting offense, especially when ShotQuality projects them closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts.
We could see some further regression against an NJIT defense that ranks 23rd nationally in low-quality 3s forced (per ShotQuality).
When Maine’s triples aren’t falling, defenses can sag down and clog up the ball-screen lanes for Tynes and Clayton, which leads to 20 seconds of dribbling into a bricked mid-range shot.
That’s precisely what happened in the Bears’ 49-point effort at Vermont last Saturday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar performance on Thursday.
Meanwhile, NJIT doesn’t push the pace on offense and works methodically in the half-court, while Maine forces opponents into long, methodical possessions with on-ball pressure. We should see plenty of 30-second Highlander possessions ending in bricked mid-range jumpers.
Unless Maine can force 20 turnovers and score 30 fast-break points, I expect another gross rock fight between the Highlanders and the Black Bears.
