The Norfolk State Spartans take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, TX. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Baylor is favored by 25.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -20000. The total is set at 143 points.
Here are my Norfolk State vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for December 11, 2024.
Norfolk State vs Baylor Prediction
My Pick: Baylor -25.5 (Play to -26.5)
My Norfolk State vs Baylor best bet is on the Bears spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Norfolk State vs Baylor Odds
| Norfolk State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -112 | 143 -112 / -108 | +3500 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -108 | 143 -112 / -108 | -20000 |
- Norfolk State vs Baylor spread: Baylor -25.5
- Norfolk State vs Baylor over/under: 143 points
- Norfolk State vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -20000, Norfolk State +3500
- Norfolk State vs Baylor best bet: Baylor -25.5 (Play to -26.5)
Spread
I like Baylor here.
Moneyline
I have no play on the ML.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Baylor -25.5 (Play to -26.5)
Norfolk State vs Baylor College Basketball Betting Preview
Norfolk State Basketball
Robert Jones deserves more credit than he gets for putting Norfolk State in a winning position year in and year out. It's subject to change, but this iteration of the Spartans ranks the highest in KenPom since Jones took the head job in 2014.
The Spartans have played a decent schedule, but not nearly as grueling as rivaling MEAC teams.
An interesting trend from the early season is that Norfolk State is 0-3 when allowing 80+ points this year, and two of the three losses were blowouts.
It makes sense that Norfolk State prefers a lower-scoring contest, given the Spartans play a deliberate tempo (289th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom).
Jones has a number of scorers who will dictate whether this game remains close or not. Brian Moore Jr., a transfer from Murray State, is a masterful athlete who leads the team with 21 points per game. Versatile forward Jalen Myers chips in 12 points per game and Moore's running mate — Christian Ings — checks in with 13 points a night.
The biggest offensive strength for the Spartans is their ability to drive and draw fouls. Norfolk State reaches the charity stripe 37% of the time and connects on 81% of its free throws. Moore and Ings live at the foul line, as they combine for over nine attempts per game.
Getting to the foul line is integral since Moore and Ings don't shoot 3s often. The two guards have each attempted fewer than 15 treys so far, though both have converted at strong clips.
That just isn't the way either wants to score, as both prefer getting downhill or scoring in the mid-range.
Baylor Basketball
The Bears enter this contest with a 6-3 record, with their three losses coming to UConn, Gonzaga and Tennessee. If Baylor had to lose, it's better to lose against three nationally-ranked teams.
The Bears feature the perfect attack to exploit the Spartans' plucky defense. Baylor ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, but it can really thrive in this contest by shooting 3s.
That's one of the strengths of Scott Drew's squad, as it shoots 38% from downtown, with 40% of its shots coming from deep.
Four of Baylor's main cogs shoot 37% or better from 3 — burgeoning star freshman Robert Wright III, veteran Jeremy Roach, sharpshooter Jayden Nunn and stretch forward Jalen Celestine.
I have no clue how Norfolk State contains Baylor's barrage of guards for 40 minutes.
I mentioned Wright, Roach and Nunn, but you also have to factor in VJ Edgecombe and Langston Love. That gives Drew five lethal scoring threats to attack Norfolk State's defense, which allows 3s on 57% of its defensive possessions.
Baylor has made fairly easy work of its mid-major matchups so far. I'll ignore the Tarleton State and New Orleans drubbings — since they both rank outside KenPom's top 300 — but Baylor beat top-185-ranked Abilene Christian and top-125-ranked Sam Houston State by 30+ points.
That bodes well for covering the lofty spread versus the MEAC frontrunners.
Defense isn't a strength for Drew's squad, as Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital aren't walking through that door. The Bears' defense ranks a mediocre 76th in KenPom's defensive efficiency, while allowing a 53% effective field goal percentage and opponents to hit 38% from 3.
The one thing Baylor does well defensively is force turnovers, posting a strong 21% turnover rate.
The path here for Baylor seems pretty clear: launch 3s, which everybody does against Norfolk State, and then crash the glass.
Baylor starts a pair of true bigs, the veteran star Norchad Omier, who leads them in points and rebounds, and 6-foot-10 center Josh Ojianawuna.
That pairing is the perfect duo to exploit a team that can't rebound.
The Bears are one of the best teams in America at creating second chances, grabbing offensive rebounds on 39% of their misses. In contrast, Norfolk State ranks 336th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, so the Bears' big man duo should make a living on the glass.
Norfolk State vs. Baylor Betting Analysis
I'm all over the Bears here. Factoring in Baylor's elite perimeter scoring attack with its ability to own the glass and its minuscule turnover rate, I don't see Norfolk State staying within the number.
KenPom gives the Bears a 19-point advantage, which indicates an edge for Norfolk State with the line sitting at 25.5.
But after seeing the way Baylor carved up Abilene Christian — a defense that wants to force turnovers and a team that doesn't shoot well — I feel like this game might go the same way.
I'm laying the big number in this afternoon showdown in Waco.
