The North Florida Ospreys take on the Austin Peay Governors in Florence, AL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
North Florida is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here are my North Florida vs. Austin Peay predictions and college basketball picks for March 2, 2025.
North Florida vs Austin Peay Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Under
My North Florida vs Austin Peay best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings Sportsbook. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
North Florida vs Austin Peay Odds
| North Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Austin Peay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
- North Florida vs Austin Peay spread: North Florida -1.5
- North Florida vs Austin Peay over/under: 160.5 points
- North Florida vs Austin Peay moneyline: North Florida -125, Austin Peay +105
- North Florida vs Austin Peay best bet: PASS | Lean Under
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on this game altogether. However, I'd take the under if I had to pick a side.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Under
North Florida vs Austin Peay College Basketball Betting Preview
North Florida and Austin Peay square off in the first round of the ASUN Conference Tournament, making it the first game to tip off conference tourney season.
The lone regular-season head-to-head matchup was a barn-burner, with the Governors pulling out a 97-89 victory.
The matchup played out mostly as expected. North Florida is insanely jump shot-reliant, ranking second nationally in 3-point rate (54%, per KenPom). The Birds of Trey let it fly and ride shooting variance to wins or losses.
However, Austin Peay is an excellent 3-point denial defense, as the Governors are aggressive and press-happy on the perimeter. So, they held the Ospreys to only 17 3-point attempts in the first matchup, nine fewer than any other game North Florida has played.
That said, North Florida adjusted by attacking the rim in transition and isolation, and the Ospreys drew 31 free throws in the process (and made 29).
So, despite getting thrown off their game plan, they could still attack the Governors’ weaker interior (36 paint points per game allowed, 10th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics) and transition (1.10 PPP allowed, 20th percentile, per Synergy) defense.
On the other end of the court, Austin Peay often plays through Sai Witt in the post, while North Florida can’t defend the post (1.01 post-up PPP allowed on high-volume, fifth percentile, per Synergy).
So, predictably, the Governors scored 16 points on 17 post-up sets (.94 PPP, per Synergy) while Witt finished with 23 himself. They shot 8-for-10 at the rim and generated 38 paint points, but they also drew 39 foul shots and made 34.
Austin Peay also ripped apart North Florida in transition (the Ospreys are similarly poor defending in transition), while guards LJ Thomas and Anton Brookshire dominated in ball screens. It was an excellent all-around offensive performance.
Both squads should score efficiently again, and we should see another higher-paced game between North Florida’s up-tempo offense and two weak transition defenses.
But we can’t reasonably expect 70 trips to the charity stripe in the rematch. Even if both teams foul plenty, neither side draws fouls at a high rate. That game seemed like a one-off officiating nightmare.
Even worse, Witt missed Austin Peay’s final three regular-season games, and his status is uncertain for this first-round tournament game. That would remove a key cog in the Governors’ offense and their best way to exploit North Florida’s defense.
Austin Peay lost two of those three final games without Witt, including to lowly West Georgia. The Governors’ offense is nearly nine points per 100 possessions worse without him on the court (per CBB Analytics).
Therefore, I’m partial toward the under.
Both squads' pace and potential interior scoring efficiency are too much for me to place the wager. But the total could be inflated from a first matchup that was only so high-scoring because of the unrepeatable foul shots.
Plus, Witt’s injury could force Austin Peay into a more uncomfortable scheme. At the same time, North Florida still won’t get off those triples, meaning the entire game will hinge on 2-point efficiency (and I’m fine betting an under in those matchups).
