The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Dayton Flyers in Dayton, OH. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
In this particular matchup, the Flyers are favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is also set at 138.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. Dayton predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday.
Northwestern vs Dayton Odds, Spread, Pick
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 136 -112/-108 | +165 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 136 -112/-108 | -200 |
- Northwestern vs Dayton spread: Dayton -4.5
- Northwestern vs Dayton over/under: 136 points
- Northwestern vs Dayton moneyline: Dayton -200, Northwestern +165
- Northwestern vs Dayton best bet: Northwestern +4.5
Northwestern vs Dayton College Basketball Betting Preview
Northwestern Basketball
Northwestern's season largely centers around do-it-all guard Brooks Barnhizer. However, Barnhizer missed the season opener with an injury and his status looks murky for this difficult battle in A-10 country.
Regardless, I'm still backing Northwestern. Why?
I'm buying a lot of stock in Northwestern's group of forwards. Northwestern's bigs dominated in the season-opening win over Lehigh. Nick Martinelli poured in 26 points and 10 rebounds, and Luke Hunger added 15 points.
Not only does Northwestern have Hunger and Martinelli, but it also has 7-footers Matthew Nicholson and Keenan Fitzmorris, impactful role players off the bench.
The encouraging news is that Dayton's lineup is very, very diminutive compared to Northwestern's.
The key for the Wildcats is their guard play sans Barnhizer. They have two proven options in 6-foot-4 sniper Jalen Leach and returning marksmen Ty Berry. After suffering a season-ending injury, Berry looks primed to return to his prior form (he shot 43% from 3 last season).
I could make a compelling argument that Northwestern's most important piece in this matchup is freshman guard K.J. Windham. He's the one true point guard who will need to handle Dayton's defensive pressure.
He looked comfortable in his first game, but facing Dayton's experienced guards in a tough road environment is a totally different task.
Dayton Basketball
One of the rankings I can't get behind on KenPom is Dayton, which sits at No. 30 after beginning at No. 27. For reference, that's better than last year's team, which finished at No. 32 and earned a single-digit seed in the Big Dance.
The Flyers' lineup just doesn't fit as much offensively without a Koby Brea-like player — someone whose sole purpose is to shoot and hit 3s. The problem is even more noticeable as each of the Flyers' backcourt starters — Posh Alexander, Enoch Cheeks and Javon Bennett — shot below 33% from 3 a season ago.
I wonder if Anthony Grant will give Malachi Smith more minutes if the shooting woes continue. The oft-injured guard returned for the first time since suffering a season-ending injury on opening night last season and tossed six assists in 20 minutes.
On the defensive end is where Dayton's upside lies. Opposing guards won't often beat the on-ball pressure from the guards.
Zed Key is a really good player, but shot-blocking isn't where he shines. Key's three blocks in the season opener seem like an outlier, as he didn't average more than a block in any of his four seasons at Ohio State.
The veteran forward needs to lock in defensively against the barrage of big bodies Northwestern coach Chris Collins has at his disposal.
Northwestern vs Dayton Betting Analysis
Though I have concerns about Northwestern's ball-handling against Dayton's guards, I'll buy into the Wildcats' advantage on the block outweighing any potential turnover issues.
