The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Bloomington, IN. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Illinois is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 148 points.
Here are my Northwestern vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for January 26, 2025.
Northwestern vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: Illinois -7.5 (Play to -8)
My Northwestern vs Illinois best bet is on the Illini spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northwestern vs Illinois Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 148 -110 / -110 | +285 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 148 -110 / -110 | -360 |
- Northwestern vs Illinois spread: Illinois -7.5
- Northwestern vs Illinois over/under: 148 points
- Northwestern vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois -360, Northwestern +285
- Northwestern vs Illinois best bet: Illinois -7.5 (Play to -8)
Spread
I'm taking the Illini on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Illinois -7.5 (Play to -8)
Northwestern vs Illinois College Basketball Betting Preview
Northwestern and Illinois step into the ring for round two of their Big Ten series. The Wildcats took the first contest in Evanston in overtime and now look to sweep the Fighting Illini and inch one step closer to .500 in conference play.
Illinois has lost three of its last four and just got blown out at home against Maryland, so perhaps a bounce back performance is in order.
Northwestern found success in the first game by feeding the post and playing inside out. Though the Cats shot horribly, they still got a decent amount of second chances and had a vice grip on the basketball, committing just four turnovers.
Nick Martinelli was awesome in that game, scoring 27 points, and he’ll be the focal point again in Champaign.
Turnovers won’t be an issue for Northwestern once again. The Cats feature multiple ball handlers, and this Illini squad is second-to-last in the league in turnover rate forced.
The Wildcats' offense is heavily reliant on one-on-one play with Martinelli and fellow wing Brooks Barnhizer creating and bullying their way to the hoop. That style of play is tough against an Illinois team that has a ton of size on its perimeter. The Illini defense has been elite this year and Northwestern managed just 0.93 PPP in the first matchup.
Expect the Cats to settle for a ton of mid-range jumpers and pull-ups, as that’s what they like to do and that’s pretty much all Illinois allows opponents to shoot.
The Illini take away the 3 at a high rate and they defend the rim at an elite level, leaving the inefficient mid-range open for business. Perhaps this plays into the paws of the Wildcats, as that’s the type of shot they want anyway.
Still, it’s a challenging way to go about scoring, especially on the road.
Illinois’ home floor hasn’t been that good, which goes against perception. KenPom ranks the Illini’s home court advantage as the 169th-best in college basketball, and Brad Underwood’s team has dropped three contests on this court already this season.
Also, the travel for Northwestern is light, as it comes down from the Chicago area.
Illinois runs a ball-screen heavy offense, and its roll men smoked Northwestern in the first game. Unfortunately, the Illini were cold and couldn't get an offensive rebound to save their lives.
Offense has been a struggle during their recent skid, as the Illini put up 0.95 PPP against USC, 1.07 PPP against Sparty and 0.88 PPP against Maryland. For the year, Illinois has scored 1.18 PPP.
Tomislav Ivisic missed Illinois previous game with mono, and he'll be out again in this one.
The Illini should have the glass edge in this game, though, and they should be able to protect the rock against the Northwestern defense. In the first game, that glass edge was non-existent, but Illinois kept miscues at a reasonable level.
The key for Illinois will be rediscovering its shot. Shooting has been a major problem for the Illini in Big Ten play, as guys like Ivisic, Tre White, Ben Humrichous and Will Riley have all been below their season/career marks from deep, and some have been downright terrible.
The one bright spot has been Kasparas Jakucionis, who should be — by far — the best player on the floor when this game tips. Illinois has shooters, and those numbers are bound to go up across the board; perhaps this is the game it finally re-clicks.
Illinois’ pick-and-roll attack is deadly with Jakucionis’ star power and Kylan Boswell’s newfound ability to get to the rack. Ivisic is out, but Morez Johnson’s rim running makes defending the roll a significant challenge for Northwestern’s slower-footed bigs.
While the Cats have been great at stopping dribble penetration and creation by the ball handler off screens, they've been exposed on rolls and pops all season. Illinois and its elite ball movement (No. 3 assist rate in the B1G) should be able to get whatever it wants on the offensive end.
Expect a much better performance from the Illini today, as they look to even up the in-state series.
