The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Michigan is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -470. The total is set at 147 points.
Here are my Northwestern vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for January 19, 2025.
Northwestern vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Michigan 1H ATS
My Northwestern vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines first-half spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northwestern vs Michigan Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -112 | 147 -110 / -110 | +360 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -108 | 147 -110 / -110 | -470 |
- Northwestern vs Michigan spread: Michigan -10
- Northwestern vs Michigan over/under: 147 points
- Northwestern vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan -470, Northwestern +360
- Northwestern vs Michigan best bet: PASS | Lean Michigan 1H ATS
Spread
I'm passing on the spread, with a slight lean toward Michigan in the first half.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Michigan 1H ATS
Northwestern vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
I can’t think of a better situational spot for the Wolverines.
Northwestern hits the road after pulling off a monster home overtime buzzer-beating win against Maryland on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Michigan returns home after losing outright as a double-digit favorite to Nebraska on a half-court buzzer-beater — after blowing a double-digit halftime lead.
It’s the most obvious let-down, bounce-back spot of the season, especially when you consider that Northwestern is 0-4 straight up in true road games this year, ranking 292nd nationally in Haslametrics Away From Home metric.
All that said, I don’t think I can lay the 10 points.
Northwestern’s defense funnels ball-screen creation, and I fully expect Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin to cook in those 4-5 pick-and-rolls.
But the elephant in the room remains — Michigan’s turnover problem is real.
After throwing the ball away 13 times against the Gophers, the Wolverines now rank 328th nationally in offensive turnover rate (21%, per KenPom). After throwing the ball away six times in that game, Wolf now has the third-most turnovers among Division I players and the most among power conference players (67, per CBB Analytics).
Northwestern’s compact, almost box-and-one defense will muck it up on the interior, as the Wildcats rank in the top-40 nationally in defensive turnover rate (21%, per KenPom).
I can’t trust Michigan against that type of defense.
Additionally, Michigan's drop-coverage defense is vulnerable in the mid-range, where Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer like to work. The duo combined for 42 points against Maryland’s drop, and I think they could do the same on Sunday.
I’m staying away from this game altogether.
But if I felt compelled to bet on this game, I’d look toward Michigan in the first half.
I do show some spread value on the Wolverines, given that I make them about a 12-point home favorite. Their highly efficient spread pick-and-roll offense is excellent at generating big leads before gross turnovers waste them.
I could easily see them shredding Northwestern’s tired post-overtime road ball-screen coverage before the Wildcats' active hands wake up in the second half.
