The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Houston Cougars in Las Vegas, NV, as part of the Players Era Festival. Tip-off is set for 12:30 a.m. ET on TBS.
The Cougars are favored by 17 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1650. The total is set at 133 points.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs Houston predictions and college basketball picks for November 28, 2024.
Notre Dame vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Under 57.5
My Notre Dame vs Houston best bet is on Notre Dame team total under, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Notre Dame vs Houston Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -108 | 133 -110 / -110 | +950 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -112 | 133 -110 / -110 | -1650 |
- Notre Dame vs Houston spread: Houston -17
- Notre Dame vs Houston over/under: 133 points
- Notre Dame vs Houston moneyline: Houston -1650, Notre Dame +950
- Notre Dame vs Houston best bet: Notre Dame Team Total Under 57.5
Spread
Houston is a double-digit favorite, and rightfully so. The Cougars should take care of business here, though Kelvin Sampson's slow pace of play leaves the door open for Notre Dame to stay within this number.
Moneyline
There is no value here with the Cougars poised to win as favorites.
Over/Under
My eyes are on Notre Dame's team total, but I lean towards the under on the game's total, as well.
My Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Under 57.5
Notre Dame vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Notre Dame Basketball
The first year of the Micah Shrewsberry era in South Bend ended better than it started. The Irish lost non-conference games to Western Carolina and The Citadel, and it started 2-10 in ACC play.
In mid-February, however, Notre Dame righted the ship, winning five of six. KenPom ranked Notre Dame as low as 226th in late December, but the Irish's late-season improvement moved that ranking all the way to 118th.
That's still below where this program — or any power conference team — wants to be, yet it's far from the disaster some feared early on.
Last season, the Irish were one of the youngest teams in Division I, ranking 357th in experience, per KenPom. This season, that young roster has largely returned to South Bend, with development expected.
Notre Dame ranks fifth in continuity from last year, with its top four scorers all back on campus. Plus, the Irish added grad transfer Matt Allocco from a successful Princeton program.
The headliner offensively is 5-foot-11 guard Markus Burton. He led the Irish in scoring last season and is off to another hot start, dropping 16+ in every game this season. But he got hurt last night against Rutgers, and there is no update on his current status.
The Irish's issues have primarily come on the other end of the floor, where Notre Dame is allowing far too many open jumpers.
It's difficult to truly gauge how worrisome that will be this season, given the low level of competition Notre Dame has faced thus far. The Irish have not played a team ranked in the top 100 by KenPom.
Despite that, Notre Dame has a loss on its record after blowing an eight-point second-half lead to Elon.
Houston is world's different from anything Notre Dame has experienced.
Houston Basketball
Houston's track record this year tells two different stories.
In three games against low-majors, Houston has been dominant, winning by 35 or more points and allowing 45 or fewer points on defense.
In the Cougars' one test so far, fellow top-five team Auburn was able to knock off Houston in a back-and-forth battle. It's notable that Houston big Ja'vier Francis left the Auburn game with an injury.
The Players Era Festival gives the Cougars a few more chances to showcase their ceiling. Tuesday night's matchup between Houston and Alabama took the spotlight, with the follow-up against the Irish offering a change-up for the Coogs.
No matter the opponent, Houston's path to victory starts on the defensive end. Sampson's guards play high pressure defense, with added double teams attacking ball-screen or dribble handoff actions.
Sampson keeps his five on the floor fresh and varied to maintain that level of intensity. Perhaps most impressively, Houston does all of this while dominating the glass and avoiding fouls.
Houston's defense forces turnovers at a top-five rate nationally, though the Cougars are deliberate about attacking in transition.
Houston ranks 348th in tempo this season, opting to grind opponents down throughout long possessions that often get re-started by one of the most active offensive rebounding teams in college basketball.
So far this season, Houston has not needed to over-rely on putbacks and second chance points. Instead, Houston is currently shooting the best 3-point percentage in the nation.
Sampson's ability to find and develop a backcourt that is capable of playing defense at the level he demands and shooting the nylon off the net is remarkable.
Houston vs Notre Dame Betting Analysis
The impending shooting regression coming for Houston is a bit scary, yet the low rate at which the Cougars shoot the deep ball should help.
This is not a team overly dependent on that shooting, which is part of why Houston has stayed hot. The Coogs are not hoisting a ton of 3s from all over — they are prioritizing good looks from deep and taking in-rhythm shots at the right time.
More importantly, few teams are more prepared to handle an off-shooting night than these Cougars. If shots aren't falling, the Houston stampede to the offensive glass counteracts that issue, with the Cougars currently grabbing nearly 40% of their own misses.
On top of that, the suffocating defense we see from Houston on a nightly basis can keep any game close, with opponents on the verge of a dry spell at any moment.
That could be even worse for Notre Dame without Burton.
My eyes in this matchup are most focused on Notre Dame's team total, especially with the Irish less prepared for games on back-to-back nights than this very deep Houston team.
The Cougars should keep Notre Dame under 57.5 points.
