The Oakland Golden Grizzlies take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, IL. Tip-off is set for 9:00 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
The Illini are favored by 23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -6500. The total is also set at 152 points.
Here’s my Oakland vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for November 13, 2024.
Oakland vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: Illinois -22.5 | Over 151.5
My Oakland vs. Illinois best bet is on the Illini spread and the over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oakland vs Illinois Odds
| Oakland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | +1500 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | -3500 |
- Oakland vs Illinois spread: Illinois -24
- Oakland vs Illinois over/under: 150 points
- Oakland vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois -3500
- Oakland vs Illinois best bet: Illinois -22.5 | Over 151.5
My Oakland vs Illinois NCAAB Betting Preview
These are two inexperienced squads. Illinois returns 14% of its minutes from last year and ranks last in the Big Ten in average D-I experience. Oakland returns 25% of its minutes and ranks 267th nationally in experience.
That makes this matchup tough to handicap, but I think I’ll make a small play on Illinois.
Despite a new roster, I know two things about Greg Kampe’s Golden Grizzlies.
First, they’re probably going to shoot a lot. They shot a ton last year, and Kampe recruited plenty of shooting in the portal to (maybe) replace Jack Gohlke and Blake Lampman.
Last season, Jayson Woodrich shot 36% from 3 at Cleveland State, Jaylen Jones shot 37% from deep at Tennessee State and Canadian import Malcolm Christie shot 36% from 3 on 11 attempts per game for Dalhousie University (in my hometown of Halifax, Nova Scotia). Also, returning guard DQ Cole shot 36% from deep in 2023-24.
Kampe will adjust his scheme to his roster, but he tends to favor motion-based offenses, which rely on secondary off-ball creation via off-ball screening, DHO and cutting sets.
Second, they will play Kampe’s patented zone defense, which will hold its own on the interior but allow a ton of 3s — the Grizzlies have ranked sub-250th nationally in 3-point rate allowed in five consecutive seasons.
It’s a relatively small sample size, but through two games, Illinois ranks second nationally in 3-point rate (63%) and eighth in 3-point rate allowed (25%).
Head coach Brad Underwood added five offensive players in the offseason who are driving the shooting spree.
Guard Kylan Boswell (Arizona) shot 38% from deep with Arizona last year. Freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley have canned a combined 10-of-16 (63%) from 3 through two games.
But of the utmost importance, Underwood added two stretch big men in Tomislav Ivisic (freshman) and Ben Humrichous (Evansville transfer). This allows the Illini to run a five-out offense and invert the floor with their big men — i.e., shoot to their heart’s content.
Meanwhile, Illinois is still running a drop-coverage defense, which overplays ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wing, funneling them all toward the monstrous 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic, who drops toward the basket.
It’s the ultimate scheme for preventing secondary spot-up shooters, instead forcing on-ball dribble penetration into the middle of the floor.
So, in this matchup, Illinois will freely shoot over Oakland’s zone while shutting down the Grizzlies’ motion offense — it’s nearly impossible to create secondary offense against drop coverage, and Oakland doesn’t want to create off the bounce.
Honestly, this is a doomsday matchup for Oakland.
Even worse, the Grizzlies are banged up. Versatile wing defender Isaiah Jones hasn’t played yet, while UMKC transfer Allen Mukeba has been dealing with a nagging injury while learning the intricacies of Kampe’s two-way scheme (although he did play 30 minutes against Boise State).
However, I suspect some long-overdue positive shooting regression looms for Oakland.
The Grizzlies shot 9-for-32 from deep against NAIA Defiance (28%) and 3-for-26 (12%) from 3 against Boise. The shooting woes date back to the preseason, as they shot only 2-for-30 from downtown in an exhibition against Michigan.
However, they’ve also generated 21 unguarded shots on 46 catch-and-shoot jumpers, making only three (14%). That’s simply unsustainable. As mentioned, Cole shot 36% from 3 in his rookie year, yet he went 1-for-15 from distance against Boise. That shouldn't happen again.
From a schematic perspective, Illinois should win by 30 behind 100 open 3s and sturdy drop coverage. The Illini are probably due for some negative shooting regression, but Kampe’s zone won’t force that — the Grizzlies allowed the third-most unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers in the nation last season (12.4).
But I also think the Grizzlies’ offense is undervalued, so I’ll make another small play on the over.
My prediction: Illinois wins a high-scoring blowout.
