The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Penn State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 150 points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions and college basketball picks for January 30, 2025.
Ohio State vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: Penn State -3 or Better
My Ohio State vs Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Ohio State vs Penn State Odds, Lines
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 150 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 150 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Ohio State vs Penn State spread: Penn State -3
- Ohio State vs Penn State over/under: 150 points
- Ohio State vs Penn State moneyline: Penn State -150, Ohio State +125
- Ohio State vs Penn State best bet: Penn State -3 or Better
My Ohio State vs Penn State NCAAB Betting Preview
This is my favorite spot of the week.
Ohio State is due for a loss after back-to-back wins over Purdue and Iowa. Meanwhile, Penn State is due for a bounce-back win, as it's returning home after tough road losses against Iowa and Michigan (by five combined points after the Hawkeyes and Wolverines shot 45% from 3).
The Buckeyes aren't a great road team, ranking 338th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric. Just look at some of their past true road performances: a rough 14-point loss at Texas A&M, a 34-point defeat at Maryland and a double-overtime escape against lowly Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Penn State’s last three true home performances have more-or-less impressed me, including a tough win over Northwestern, a one-point loss to Oregon as 2.5-point ‘dogs and an eight-point win over Rutgers to snap a four-game losing streak.
I suspect the Nittany Lions will piece together a similar showing on Thursday.
I’ve mentioned this on these virtual pages before, but it bears repeating: I’m super low on Ohio State.
The Buckeyes’ successes are tied to unsustainable 3-point shooting splits for a team that doesn’t profile as a solid spacing-and-shooting squad. They looked impressive against Purdue, but they shot 48% from 3. They looked good against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes shot 28% from 3.
The Buckeyes soared through the non-conference by shooting 45% from 3 while opponents shot under 30%. They’re now 4-5 in Big Ten play after the regression monster came, and I suspect that trend continues.
Ohio State is mainly an off-the-bounce dribble-penetration offense led by Bruce Thornton, Meechie Johnson Jr., John Mobley Jr., Micah Parrish and Devin Royal.
But the Buckeyes will be running that offense into Mike Rhoades’ aggressive, hard-hedging point-of-attack ball-screen coverage defense — one that’s excellent at dribble-penetration denial.
The way to beat Penn State’s defense is through pick-and-pop big men and creative short rollers who can exploit the Nittany Lions’ overhelp on the ball-screen handler. But neither Sean Stewart, nor Aaron Bradshaw, does that.
Also, Ohio State has a significant turnover issue. The Buckeyes rank last in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate (20%, per KenPom). They’ve turned the ball over more than any team in the conference except for Michigan. They’ve thrown the ball away at least 14 times in four of their past seven games.
Surprisingly, most of these turnovers aren't live giveaways, which could negate Ace Baldwin Jr.’s quick hands. However, the point remains that a team with turnover issues doesn’t match up well with Penn State, which thrives on giveaways.
I don’t love how Penn State’s offense matches up with Ohio State’s defense. But the Buckeyes play drop-coverage, inviting Baldwin’s ball-screen creation into the middle of the floor, where he hopefully can create.
Regardless, the spot is too good for Penn State.
