With the Big Ten tournament moving onto the quarterfinals, the games are heating up as well.
In the first half of Friday's docket, No. 1 seed Michigan State matches up with No. 8 Ohio State, which it swept in their two regular season meetings.
Shortly after, No. 4 seed Wisconsin squares off against No. 13 seed Nebraska, as the Badgers won — outright and ATS — in Lincoln for their lone matchup.
Where's the value in these two games? Let's break them down.
Betting Odds: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
- Spread: Michigan State -11
- Over/Under: 135
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Big Ten Network
>> All odds as of Thursday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time CBB odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The Spartans (22-9 against the spread) have dominated ATS throughout the campaign, including a pair of covers vs. the Buckeyes (13-19 ATS) in their two straight up wins.
Nevertheless, I'm expecting a motivated Ohio State team with revenge on its mind. They held a one-point edge with 4:32 left before losing by nine in their first go-around. Chris Holtmann and Co. were then tied with 7:40 left in East Lansing, but Michigan State ended the game on a 20-2 run.
The Buckeyes likely have an NCAA tournament bid locked up after a victory over Indiana in the second round, but the Spartans would need plenty of help to earn a No. 1 seed in March Madness — even if they won the Big Ten tournament.
OSU should have much of the motivation on its side as a result.
Matchups wise, the Buckeyes' attack appeared rejuvenated with 6-foot-9 Kaleb Wesson (suspension) back in the lineup on Thursday, and they should be able to play inside-out through him with MSU yielding the fifth-highest 3-point scoring rate (32.6%) in league play.
Ohio State has notched the third-highest scoring percentage (33.2%) from that department, with Wesson averaging 18.5 points per game (53.8% shooting) vs. Michigan State this season.
At the other end, the Buckeyes' fourth-ranked opponents' turnover rate in conference play will give MSU's offense issues, as they've generated the third-highest turnover rate (18.8%). Spartans point guard Cassius Winston will eventually take over down the stretch, but expect C.J. Jackson and Keyshawn Woods' on-ball defense to disrupt his play earlier on.
I'll take the underdog with a slightly inflated line.
THE PICK: Ohio State +11
Betting Odds: Nebraska Cornhuskers-Wisconsin Badgers
- Spread: Wisconsin -7
- Over/Under: 127
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: Big Ten Network
Neither side presents much value against the spread in this one, yet the total still delivers intrigue.
The Badgers, hitting the under in 56.7% (17-13-1) of their games this season, own the 18th-lowest Adjusted Tempo (63.6 possessions per 40 minutes). Greg Gard's bunch strives to use much of the shot clock on every possession, but it's totaled the sixth-lowest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (100.2 points per 100 possessions) amid its conference slate.
Wisconsin's biggest strength comes from behind the arc, boasting the third-highest 3-point clip (35.9%) in league play. Although the Cornhuskers have struggled to defend the perimeter vs. Big Ten foes, especially without the do-it-all Isaac Copeland (torn ACL), they let up a mere 30.0% 3-point clip to a perimeter-oriented Maryland team on Thursday.
The 6-foot-8, 250-pound Tanner Borchardt held Terps big Bruno Fernando in check, too, giving them few opportunities to play inside-out. Fernando is no Ethan Happ (17.8 points per game), but expect Borchardt to still challenge the 6-foot-10 forward.
At the other end, the Cornhuskers' offense will likely run into a wall with its seven-man rotation — six of them scholarship players — in its third game over a three-day span. They're facing college basketball's fourth-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (87.3 opponents' points per 100 possessions) as well, so their sluggish pace won't create a bunch of scoring opportunities.
The under has hit in 53.3% of Nebraska's games, too, setting up well for that side of the total.
THE PICK: Under 127
