Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Odds
Oklahoma earned a fantastic 66-61 home win over No. 9 Alabama on Jan. 30.
The Crimson Tide had won 10 games in a row, and the Sooners were playing without point guard Austin Reaves, who was placed in the COVID-19 protocol on Saturday morning. Oklahoma has covered six straight games and eight of its last nine contests.
The Sooners find themselves on an impressive five-game winning streak heading to Lubbock to face a Texas Tech team desperately trying to make up ground in the Big 12 race.
Chris Beard's team snapped a two-game losing streak with an impressive 76-71 win and cover at LSU Jan. 30.
Which team will come out victorious in this Big 12 Monday Night clash?
The Matchup
This is a critical matchup for Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have finally started to gain positive momentum with three wins in their past four Big 12 road games. They've finished the most difficult part of their schedule, going 2-2 after competing at Texas, home against Baylor, at West Virginia, and at LSU.
The Red Raiders have done so on the offensive shoulders of Georgetown transfer Mac McClung.
The junior point guard leads the team with 17.5 points per game while shooting 36% from 3-point range and 82% from the free-throw line. McClung has been on fire over the past four games, averaging 24.5 points and 1.5 steals, while shooting 46.4% (13-of-28) from beyond the arc.
McClung has been receiving support from sophomore Terrence Shannon (13.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg), who's averaging 19 points and nine rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game in the last two contests. They combined for 45 of the teams 76 points in the win over LSU.
The foundation of Texas Tech's success is turnovers. It protects the ball on offense, ranking 34th-best in offensive turnover percentage. In their last-second loss at West Virginia, the Red Raiders produced only a microscopic two offensive turnovers.
Defensively, Beard's team ranks 18th-best in the country with 17.3 turnovers forced per game. In their 79-77 win at Texas, the Red Raiders forced the Longhorns into 15 turnovers, more than double their own total.
Texas Tech also pounds the offensive boards at an elite level. The relentless Red Raiders rank 21st-best in offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom.
Most importantly for gambling purposes, Beard's squad ranks first in Big 12 play with a 77.6% average from the charity stripe.
Oklahoma found success against Alabama by limiting its 3-point efficiency and dominating the Sooners on the boards.
The Crimson Tide entered the game shooting over 41% from deep in their last nine games but were limited to just 10-of-28 (35%) by Oklahoma. Lon Kruger's team also dominated the boards, 42-34, including 13 offensive rebounds.
That is unlikely to happen against the Red Raiders in Lubbock.
Texas Tech will match Oklahoma on the boards at a minimum, placing pressure on the Sooners to find another way to generate offense.
This is directly affected by the likely absence of leading-scorer Reaves (15.8 ppg) and fellow senior guard Alondes Williams (7.7 ppg). Both players missed Saturday's game due to the COVID-19 protocol and are unlikely to play on Monday night.
The Sooners will need big games from sophomore De'Vion Harmon (13.1 ppg) and streaky junior guard Umoja Gibson (9.1 ppg, 43.8% 3-point). They also saw season-best output from junior Elijah Harkless (14 points) against the Crimson Tide.
Oklahoma is still waiting for positive regression from forward Brady Manek, who has suffered through a frustrating season. He has dealt with a concussion and COVID-19, and his scoring is down four points per game from last season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Oklahoma was incredibly impressive against Alabama, especially without Reaves. But the style of game it will need to play against the Red Raiders is completely different.
Texas Tech will match or exceed the Sooners on the boards, and McClung will again be the best player of the floor. The absence of Reaves and Williams will be critical against a Red Raiders team that's playing their best basketball of the season.
The line opened at Texas Tech -4.5 and is rising quickly. I took it at -5.5 and would do so up to -6.5.
Pick: Texas Tech -5 (up to -6.5).
