The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Alabama is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 164 points.
Here are my Ole Miss vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for January 14, 2025.
Ole Miss vs Alabama Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | -700 |
- Ole Miss vs Alabama spread: Alabama -11.5
- Ole Miss vs Alabama over/under: 164 points
- Ole Miss vs Alabama moneyline: Alabama -700, Ole Miss +500
- Ole Miss vs Alabama best bet: Ole Miss +11.5 (Play to +8.5)
My Ole Miss vs Alabama best bet is on the Rebels spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Ole Miss vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
Despite not containing the firepower Alabama has, Ole Miss is bonafide top-25 team, according to all metrics.
Ole Miss won't want to push the pace like Alabama, but it has the pieces to match the tempo if needed. The correct path is slowing the game down a bit, though, as nobody wants to play the Tide in a track meet.
The Rebels' offense centers around a pair of point guards, Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray.
I wouldn't call anybody a "star" on this Rebels roster. We know Mark Sears is the guy for Alabama, but it can be several players for Ole Miss. Some nights, it's Pedulla or Murray; others, it's veteran wings Matthew Murrell or Dre Davis. They have six players averaging eight-plus points per game this season.
Moreover, Ole Miss can stifle this Alabama offense with its strong defense. What a shocker — a team with Chris Beard and Mark Adams on staff is a strong defensive unit.
Defensively, Ole Miss will look to flash some pressure, leading to a 22% turnover rate.
Since Alabama seldom turns the ball over, the ideal path for Ole Miss is forcing this stout offense into tough 3s. That's something Beard's team excels at, ranking in the 95th percentile against spot-up shots and 93rd percentile against pick-and-rolls.
Plus, teams shoot only 29% from 3 against this vaunted Rebels defense, which is potentially a good sign to cover in Tuscaloosa.
The performance of Ole Miss' bigs will play a paramount role, as rebounding the ball is key here. The Rebels tend to struggle on the glass, ranking 139th in defensive rebounding rate compared to Alabama's 38% offensive rebounding rate.
They can't match Alabama's length — it starts three players 6-foot-11 or taller — as Ole Miss plays smaller, with the 6-foot-6 Davis and 6-foot-9 Malik Dia on the interior.
If the game calls for it, Beard can go bigger with Jaemyn Brakefield, John Bol or Mikeal Brown-Jones next to Dia.
Alabama is hitting its stride. I feel like we experienced a bit of preseason voting fatigue with the Crimson Tide. They went from arguably the best team in the country to their heated rivals stealing the spotlight.
The Tide play the same way every Nate Oats-coached team plays: at an intense tempo (No. 2 in adjusted tempo) while shooting a ton of 3s (48% of their shots come from 3).
The shocking thing is Alabama is shooting only 32% from 3, which makes it even more impressive that it ranks No. 2 in KenPom's offensive efficiency.
Sears determines whether Alabama is an unstoppable or more tame offense. The All-American guard has scored 20+ points in four straight games, so he's starting to get rolling.
What's the real key to unlocking more of Bama's offense? Chris Youngblood's emergence.
The former AAC player at South Florida went 3-for-6 in his last game against Texas A&M. It sure feels like Youngblood is finding his stroke after missing the first two months of the year. While Latrell Wrightsell Jr. is injured, it's easy for Youngblood to assume that role, but he just hasn't shot it as well.
I'm just unsure if Youngblood is there yet, which means Alabama might be a step-or-two away from truly reaching its ceiling.
Defensively, Alabama is a vastly improved squad compared to last year. The Crimson Tide finished No. 118th in defensive efficiency last year, and it ranks No. 38 this year.
However, Alabama is fairly brutal at defending pick-and-rolls, ranking in the 17th percentile, per Synergy. That's not ideal against this Ole Miss team.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
This number is too strong for Alabama against a really, really good Ole Miss team.
I like the Rebels' defensive attack to contain Alabama's potent offense, and the Rebels' pick-and-roll game might cause problems for the Tide's defense.
KenPom has the number at Alabama -8, which lends a lot of value to Ole Miss at +11.5.
Pick: Ole Miss +11.5 (Play to +8.5)
