The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arkansas is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -192. The total is set at 149 points.
Here are my Ole Miss vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for January 8, 2025.
Ole Miss vs Arkansas Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 149 -108 / -112 | +160 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 149 -108 / -112 | -192 |
- Ole Miss vs Arkansas spread: Arkansas -4
- Ole Miss vs Arkansas over/under: 149 points
- Ole Miss vs Arkansas moneyline: Arkansas -192, Ole Miss +160
- Ole Miss vs Arkansas best bet: Over 148 or Better
My Ole Miss vs Arkansas best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
My Ole Miss vs Arkansas NCAAB Betting Preview
Chris Beard's legal troubles off the court led to his dismissal at Texas, yet as he's shifted from Austin to leading the Rebels in Oxford, his work as a defensive-minded head coach has remained apparent.
All of his teams, at Little Rock, Texas Tech, Texas and now Ole Miss, have made their impact on that end of the floor, forcing opponents into difficult shots or empty possessions.
These Rebs are no different. Ole Miss ranks in the top-10 nationally in forcing turnovers, with opponents coughing up the ball on 23.5% of their possessions. On a per game basis, Ole Miss is nabbing 10.2 steals per game, 12th in the nation. Those aren't just turnovers, but often scoring opportunities in transition.
Ole Miss also ranks fifth in block rate, swatting away nearly 18% of opponents' 2-point attempts.
Between those two statistics alone, the sheer amount of quality scoring chances you're able to find against this Ole Miss team is minimal, before even considering how many possessions that don't end with a turnover or block shot likely end with a difficult look at the rim.
Beard's Rebels take full advantage of this on the offensive end, ranking in the bottom five in turnovers, leading to a surplus of possessions.
In 14 games this season, Ole Miss has attempted more field goals than its opponent 11 times. In two of the three cases where the Rebels didn't do so, they attempted a significant more amount of free throws than their opponent.
For a team with a well-balanced roster of scorers, that math is enough to keep Ole Miss in every game, if not swing the scoreboard toward the Rebs.
The Hogs sit at an interesting point in the calendar. To date, they've beaten every team on their schedule that they should have beaten, with no major slip ups. A neutral court win over Michigan is an added bonus.
In Arkansas' three other games against high-level competition, the Razorbacks are 0-3, losing to Baylor, Illinois and Tennessee. The SEC schedule looms, with every single conference game pitting Arkansas against a top-75 KenPom team (seven of which come against teams ranked in the top 30).
This feels a little bit typical of a John Calipari team. In his days at Kentucky and Memphis, Calipari's teams were young, with transfers supplementing freshmen phenoms in recent years.
That's true again this season, with freshmen and sophomores learning their way for the Hogs.
Oddly, Calipari does have two battle-tested seniors on the squad, yet both are playing strange roles so far.
Jonas Aidoo played 25 minutes per game for Tennessee last season, scoring 11.4 points a night for a Vols team that reached the Elite Eight. This season at Arkansas, Calipari has only found 17 minutes per game for Aidoo, who is scoring only 6.1 points a night on less than half the field goal attempts he tried per game last season.
Florida Atlantic transfer Johnell Davis is a similar story. He was a key cog, and at times the alpha dog, of the Owls team that went to two NCAA Tournaments, including a Final Four.
Last year at FAU, Davis scored 18 points per game on 13 field goal attempts. This season, as a Razorback, he's good for just 8.4 points per game on 7.0 shots. His usage rate has been cut nearly in half.
It's unclear what Calipari sees in these players, given the success they found at their previous spots. For my money, their fade into the background radically lowers the ceiling of this Arkansas team in SEC play and in March.
These teams earn their reputation on the defensive end of the floor, but both are adept at turning good defense into smart offense.
For Ole Miss, in five games against high-level opponents, the over has hit three times, with four of those games clearing the total set for this matchup.
In Arkansas' five games against power-conference teams, three of those outings topped this total.
I like the chance for scoring, and I'll take this total at 146.5. I would go as high as 148.
