The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7:45 p.m. ET on truTV.
Iowa State is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for March 23, 2025.
Ole Miss vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Iowa State -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Ole Miss vs Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclone spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Ole Miss vs Iowa State Odds, Spread, Pick
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
- Ole Miss vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -5.5
- Ole Miss vs Iowa State over/under: 144.5 points
- Ole Miss vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa State -240, Ole Miss +195
- Ole Miss vs Iowa State best bet: Iowa State -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Ole Miss vs Iowa State NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
In the Round of 64, Iowa State didn't miss Keshon Gilbert at all, as it ran Lipscomb out of the gym.
Ole Miss led North Carolina by 22 points early in the second half, but the Tar Heels cut the lead to two late. We'll see if the quick turnaround after a grueling game has any lasting effects.
The Cyclones have a stark size advantage in this one. They start three players — Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson — who all stand 6-foot-8 or taller.
Ole Miss could be without Mikeal Brown-Jones, a key reserve forward. He hasn't played in a few weeks due to personal manners.
If he doesn't play, that leaves the Rebels with 6-foot-9 Malik Dia — a more offensive-focused forward — 6-foot-8 Jaemyn Brakefield and deep reserve 7-foot-2 John Bol. Expect a steady diet of Jackson beating up the Rebs inside.
Momcilovic will help replace Gilbert's scoring. He loves shooting over smaller defenders, and Ole Miss will put 6-foot-4 Matthew Murrell on him. Although Murrell is stronger, Momcilovic loves posting up smaller guards with a Dirk Nowitzki-esque fade away and using his high-release jumper to drill 3s.
I also expect Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey to be a real problem for Ole Miss. While he can score, his most important skill here is stopping Ole Miss' leading scorer Sean Pedulla. Lipsey is among the best on-ball defenders in the country, so keep an eye on that matchup.
Also, Iowa State should crush Ole Miss on the boards. The best thing Iowa State can do is get to the rim and either exploit the Rebels' poor interior by drawing a foul or grab the offensive rebounds.
Ole Miss ranks outside the top 300 in defensive free throw rate since February 1 and outside the top 150 in defensive rebound rate.
I'm still an Iowa State believer. I mean, even without Gilbert and Lipsey, Iowa State nearly beat a really good BYU team in the Big 12 Tournament. Not having Gilbert takes away a solid defender and elite driver, but Lipsey can take on a bigger role, and Curtis Jones can erupt for 25+ in any game.
The easiest way to beat Iowa State is by exploiting its brutal 19% turnover rate (sine February 1). Just look at the way Oklahoma State and Kansas State beat the Clones — by forcing turnovers.
But Ole Miss can't stay in front of the bigger Cyclones, thus leading to easier possessions.
The Cyclones are also shooting 37.3% from deep since February 1. Gilbert missed a chunk of those games, but he only makes 0.9 3s per game anyways. That's one stat to point to and feel good about Iowa State without Gilbert.
Jones, Momcilovic and Nate Heise are shooting over 37% from downtown.
Lastly, I just don't believe in Ole Miss. Iowa State may feel the effects of not having Gilbert later on, but the Cyclones should advance via a healthy margin here.
