The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, TN. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Memphis is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 152 points.
Here are my Ole Miss vs. Memphis predictions and college basketball picks for December 28, 2024.
Ole Miss vs Memphis Prediction
My Pick: Memphis ML -110 (Play to -3)
My Ole Miss vs Memphis best bet is on the Tigers moneyline or spread to -3, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Ole Miss vs Memphis Odds, Lines, Pick
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 152 -112 / -108 | +110 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 152 -112 / -108 | -130 |
- Ole Miss vs Memphis spread: Memphis -1.5
- Ole Miss vs Memphis over/under: 152 points
- Ole Miss vs Memphis moneyline: Memphis -130, Ole Miss +110
- Ole Miss vs Memphis best bet: Memphis ML -110 (Play to -3)
My Ole Miss vs Memphis College Basketball Betting Preview
Ole Miss Basketball
I’m still skeptical on whether Ole Miss is a legitimate top-15 caliber squad like the AP Poll thinks, or if KenPom’s ranking of No. 30 is more on par with reality. The Rebels have faced just three opponents inside the KenPom top 50 and they are 2-1 in those games.
The loss came to Purdue on a neutral court, with wins over BYU and a wounded Louisville team.
The Rebels have the edge in the turnover battle in just about every game. They have the nation’s best offensive turnover rate (12%), while forcing opposing giveaways over a jarring 24.6% of the time. That will be a vital part of this matchup since Memphis frustrates guards with relentless full-court pressure.
Why is Ole Miss so good at limiting turnovers? Well, Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray man the guard spots. You often hear that teams want two ball-handlers, but how many programs have two actual point guards capable of starting for 95% of D-I squads? Not many, and Ole Miss is one of the few.
The incumbent Murray has improved by the transfer Pedulla's presence. The 6-foot-1 Pedulla leads the team with 14.8 points while shooting 45% from the field and 42% from 3.
Meanwhile, Murray adds a different gear with his quickness and elite perimeter shooting pop (45% from 3).
The Rebels' wing-corps is quite interesting. Nagging injuries have limited Matthew Murrell, and he is shooting just 31% from 3.
One of the other key transfers — Dre Davis — is a defensive fit and great at attacking the rim, but he is also a below-average shooter.
The same goes for Davon Barnes, and take a pick of the bigs — Jaemyn Brakefield, Mikeal Brown-Jones and Malik Dia — as none are shooting better than 33% from 3.
In this spot, Ole Miss can exploit Memphis by shooting it well from 3. I don't buy into Ole Miss shooting 36% from downtown on high volume if a litany of mediocre shooters surround the two elite point guards.
Memphis Basketball
Last Saturday was a relatively disappointing game for Memphis, as it suffered a double-digit home loss against another team close in proximity — Mississippi State.
Although I didn’t have the write up for that game, I did back Memphis, and I am going to the well once more.
So, what went wrong for Memphis in that outing? Three key aspects defined the Tigers' loss.
First, the opposing Bulldogs shot 37% from 3, which aligns with a season-long issue (opponents are shooting 35% from deep against this Tigers defense).
Second, 43 of Memphis’ 66 points came from star guards PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter. That is awesome, but six total points in 34 minutes from Moussa Cisse and Dain Dainja can’t happen.
Finally, the Tigers turned the ball over 18 times.
Haggerty is one of the top scoring guards in America, posting 22.6 points a night. The best part about Haggerty's versatile scoring skillset is his knack for drawing fouls, as he is attempting 9.6 free throws per game.
My main worry about Memphis' backcourt portal haul was neither were above average shooters last year. Hunter has single-handedly shifted my view on this Memphis squad, as his 48% from distance leads the Tigers' team-wide 41%.
I'm hopeful that Memphis figures out how to defend the arc. Opponents are shooting an unfathomable 35% from 3 against it.
Unfortunately, that trend is becoming all too familiar for Penny Hardaway. His teams tend to over-help on drives, leading to clean looks for capable shooters, which is a recipe for disaster against Ole Miss' guards, who want to touch the paint and make plays.
The interior needs to be more consistent for Memphis, too. Even if Memphis can't generate scoring from its bigs, they need to at least defend and rebound.
The rebounding aspect has been a real issue, as Memphis ranks No. 313th in defensive rebounding rate. That can't continue because teams can turn offensive rebounds into clean looks from 3 like clockwork.
Ole Miss vs. Memphis Betting Analysis
From a situational standpoint, there is a lot for Memphis to prove here. Hardaway needs to find a way to urge his team to feed off the rowdy fans in the FedExForum in the Tigers' final resume-builder before AAC play.
Plus, Ole Miss is quite a road stranger, as its only true away contest came against a Louisville squad that is a shell of the team it was earlier in the season.
Give me Memphis up to 3.5.
