The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Mississippi State is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for January 18, 2025.
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Mississippi State -5.5
My Ole Miss vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
College Basketball Odds: Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
- Ole Miss vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -5.5
- Ole Miss vs Mississippi State over/under: 146.5 points
- Ole Miss vs Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi State -245, Ole Miss +200
- Ole Miss vs Mississippi State best bet: PASS | Lean Mississippi State -5.5
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State NCAAB Betting Preview
Ole Miss has been playing awesome ball, now sitting 4-0 in conference play and 5-2 in Quad 1 opportunities. The Rebels would be a top-four seed if Selection Sunday were tomorrow.
However, I think the Rebels are a tad overvalued.
Chris Beard’s aggressive no-middle defense will over-help against the dribble, which tends to allow plenty of weak-side 3-point attempts, explaining why the Rebels rank 327th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (45%, per KenPom).
Yet their four conference opponents have shot just 21% from deep, a wholly unsustainable mark — ShotQuality projects they should be shooting closer to 35% based on the “quality” of attempts.
Eventually, someone is going to start hitting those wide-open 3s, and the Rebels are way overdue for a loss.
Mississippi State is a guard-friendly, ball-screen-centric offense behind Josh Hubbard, Claudell Harris Jr. and Riley Kugel.
The Rebels are a rim-friendly offense, but they have no issues pulling up over the top, and they’re due for all sorts of positive shooting regression after canning only 15 of their 64 (23%) 3-point attempts over the past two games.
Considering those two games were losses, the Bulldogs should come out with their hair on fire.
Considering it’s also a home game against their undefeated in-state rival, the Bulldogs should put together their best performance of the season. And considering they’re due for a monster amount of positive 3-point shooting regression, they should score a ton in the process.
Mississippi State is way overdue for a win, and Hubbard should lead it to one on Saturday.
That said, the spot tax is crazy. The market is shading this line way too far toward the Bulldogs, and I can’t recommend laying five or six with them when some projection sites (EvanMiya) make the line nearly a pick'em.
I also don’t love the schematic matchup.
As mentioned, the Bulldogs run a ball-screen-centric offense, which will be tough to do against Beard’s aggressive no-middle ball-screen coverage that’s among the nation’s best (.77 PPP allowed, 89th percentile, per Synergy).
On the other end of the court, Ole Miss scores mainly in isolation by shuffling the ball around its bevy of wings (Jaylen Murray, Matthew Murrell, Dre Davis, et cetera).
Chris Jans runs an aggressive switch-everything defense and has plenty of active, lengthy defenders, but that’ll make the Bulldogs vulnerable leaning into and hunting those switches (.91 ISO PPP allowed, 17th percentile, per Synergy).
That said, it’s Mississippi State or nothing for me in basketball’s version of the Egg Bowl. The situational spot and regression angle point too strongly toward the Bulldogs.
I’ll likely pass on this game altogether, but I'm considering throwing Mississippi State moneyline in a parlay of some kind.
