The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, MO. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Missouri is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here are my Ole Miss vs. Missouri predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
Ole Miss vs Missouri Prediction
My Pick: Missouri -2.5 (Play to -3)
My Ole Miss vs Missouri best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Ole Miss vs Missouri Odds, Lines
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | +140 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -165 |
- Ole Miss vs Missouri spread: Missouri -3.5
- Ole Miss vs Missouri over/under: 143.5 points
- Ole Miss vs Missouri moneyline: Missouri -165, Ole Miss +140
- Ole Miss vs Missouri best bet: Missouri -2.5 (Play to -3)
My Ole Miss vs Missouri NCAAB Betting Preview
Mizzou and Ole Miss both find themselves in the thick of the SEC race. At 4-2, both teams are looking to keep pace with the top dogs in the league and strengthen already impressive NCAA Tournament resumes.
The Tigers come into this game off an ugly road loss at Texas, where they suffered through their worst offensive output of the year.
Meanwhile, the Rebels are coming off two straight losses, one in overtime to rival Mississippi State and one at home to Texas A&M. The A&M loss was soul-crushing, as Ole Miss controlled the entire game and had a 98% win probability, per KenPom, when it was up six with just over one minute to play.
Which team will be like the goldfish and bounce back quickly with a short memory?
Mizzou hasn’t lost a home game all season, and the students should be out in full force for this one. The Tigers are deep, but sometimes that’s to their detriment, as Dennis Gates rolls out bizarre lineup combinations and decides to play guys at inopportune moments.
When Gates plays a normal rotation, Mizzou is truly a top-20 team. When he experiments, the Tigers can look pedestrian.
Offensively, Mizzou wants to get out in transition, shoot 3s and earn trips to the foul line. The Tigers rank eighth nationally in percentage of plays finished in transition, per Synergy, though they likely won’t get as many opportunities against an Ole Miss squad that shuts down fast breaks at an elite rate.
From a free throw perspective, Mizzou is the second-best team in the country at getting to the line, key against Ole Miss, which ranks 241st in free throw attempt rate allowed.
The 3-point line will likely be the deciding factor, as it is in most games in the modern age. Ole Miss packs it in defensively per Chris Beard’s patented style, which should afford the Tigers plenty of chances to score from deep.
The Rebels are also likely due for some negative regression, as they lead the league in 3-point percentage allowed (24.5%) despite ranking 12th in 3-point attempt rate allowed.
Scrappiness, hard drives and kicks, and getting to the stripe are all tenants of Mizzou’s attack. Gates has an athletic team, and Mark Mitchell is a matchup problem, especially when he plays the 5.
Ole Miss, like Mizzou, is one of the oldest teams in college basketball and has plenty of athleticism and muscle to match the Tigers. This game will be a true battle of will.
To beat Mizzou you need to be able to protect the basketball, and that’s just what Ole Miss does. The Rebels rank third nationally in turnover rate (No. 1 in SEC play), a perfect counter to Mizzou’s top-25 defensive turnover rate.
The Rebels are strangely heavily reliant on outside shooting, which is at odds with their athletic, physical brand. In SEC play, Ole Miss ranks last in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw attempt rate, meaning if it’s cold from deep, second chances and scoring won’t come easily.
The Rebels do have a ton of shooting, led by Sean Pedulla, Jaylen Murray and Jaemyn Brakefield. Matthew Murrell, Dre Davis and Malik Dia are also capable from outside the arc.
How Ole Miss reacts to Mizzou’s weird zone will be key in this one. The Tigers play a ton of funky zone, which oftentimes stymies its opposition. When used as a change of pace, it’s downright lethal. But, if properly prepped for, it can be exposed. Rotations are often strange, and the Tigers have allowed plenty of open looks to good shooting teams that have simply missed the mark.
Ole Miss is fairly up-tempo, but its half-court offense can stagnate largely due to an over-reliance on isolation. Mizzou’s zone could blow this up, but the Tigers also have a ton of big guards and wings capable of defending one-on-one.
Isolation play isn't the path to beat Mizzou. Dia is usually a matchup problem for opposing bigs, but Mizzou can throw Mitchell, Marcus Allen and/or Aidan Shaw on Dia without issues. All three are big, strong, athletic forwards capable of sticking with Dia on the perimeter.
While Dia has the edge inside, Ole Miss’ preferred scoring method is via the 3-point arc versus the post.
Mizzou should be well-equipped to handle an Ole Miss attack predicated on being more athletic, skilled and stronger than the opposition.
On the other end, the Tigers should see plenty of chances to scorch the nets from deep in front of their home crowd.
Look for Mizzou to take this one and continue its surprising SEC run.
