Oral Roberts vs. Duke Odds
| Oral Roberts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | -280 |
The Duke Blue Devils are red-hot right now, but they face a tough challenger in the Round of 64: March veteran Max Abmas and the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles.
No one seems to be mentioning that the best wins for the Blue Devils were against Miami and Virginia in the ACC Tournament.
Outside of an early win against Xavier, Duke has not defeated a team better than 30th, via KenPom. The Blue Devils beat some reasonably solid teams, but they may be surprised by ORU.
The Golden Eagles have four losses on the season out of the Summit League and they came against New Mexico, Utah State, Houston and Saint Mary’s. The Golden Eagles tout a 17-game active win streak, which is the longest in the country.
Oral Roberts should not be overlooked because it has a juggernaut of an offense. Duke has a solid top-to-bottom team.
Look for the Golden Eagles to keep this one close.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Abmas averages 22.2 points per game and is now a savvy veteran in this tournament. Do not forget, he was a member of the 2020-2021 team that took down Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16.
ORU is a well-oiled offense because of him. It's the best team when it comes to offensive turnover rate (only 13.2%). It shoots 37% from 3-point land and 56.6% from 2-point range.
The Golden Eagles' 3-point attempt rate is 45.8%, which ranks 16th in the country. They will shoot 3s whenever allotted the opportunity.
Duke ranks 119th in Open 3 Rate. It also ranks 218th in points per possession (PPP) on off-the-dribble 3s.
On the offensive end, the Golden Eagles rank fifth in off-the-dribble PPP and 44th in Open 3 Rate. They can make deep shots, and Duke will give them the chance.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
The weakness for the Golden Eagles is pulling down rebounds, which may limit this team from making a run. Duke ranks seventh in rebounding percentage, per ShotQuality, while the Golden Eagles rank 312th.
ORU can eat into this edge if it hits 3s.
Connor Vanover will play a huge role if he can pull down boards. He is averaging over seven per game, so this can help ORU's deficiency against one of the best rebounding teams in the country.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke’s offense just does not compare to ORU’s. Yes, the competition was much stronger in a weaker ACC this year than it was in the Summit, but outside of hitting 77% from the strike — while only holding a 30.8% free-throw attempt rate — Duke does not have an efficient offense.
The Blue Devils rank 197th in 3-point rate at 33.6%. They are only shooting 51.5% from inside the arc, and most importantly, the Blue Devils only have a 249th 3-point attempt rate.
They will not produce the open looks the Golden Eagles can.
Now, Oral Roberts can defend inside — holding opponents to 46.6% — but it will give up 3s. Opponents are shooting 34.2% from deep on it.
Since Duke does not take nearly as many 3s as the Golden Eagles, ORU holds the edge here.
In addition, Duke does not get to the free-throw line often, and ORU is incredibly disciplined on defense, ranking fifth in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
This will eliminate hope for the Blue Devils to make up ground at the line.
Oral Roberts vs Duke Betting Pick
The Blue Devils will have trouble guarding the 3-point threats for much of the action.
Yes, Duke will crash the glass, but it does not shoot well enough from 3 to keep up with the Golden Eagles.
Do not overlook the experience this Oral Roberts team has with Abmas at point guard.
Take ORU at +6.5 (-110), and play it to +5 (-110). A sprinkle on the moneyline may be worth it.
Pick: Oral Roberts +6.5 (Play to +5) |
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